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Prof Akinwumi Isola’s Efunsetan Aniwura, (1981) his first play written in 1961-62 while he was a student at the University of Ibadan, is highly celebrated. It is a historical drama which reflects proceedings of the 19th century reign of the heroine, second Iyalode (Queen of women) of Ibadan, Efunsetan Aniwura. Aniwura – one with a surplusage of gold – a fiery, Egba-born but wealthy Ibadan slave owner and merchant, held the title from 1867 – 1874. The unwritten law among the coffle of slaves she kept was that no female slave must get pregnant. Thus, when Adetutu, one of her female slaves was audacious enough to get impregnated by a fellow slave called Itawuyi, upon hearing the news, Efunsetan’s immediate but fierce retort was, afefe ti fe, a ti ri’di adiye! Translated, it means, the wind has blown and the hidden rump of the fowl has been exposed.

So many reasons have been adduced by historians for Efunsetan’s outlawing of procreation among her over 2000 slaves. One was the emotional instability she emerged with from the death during labour of her only daughter child in 1860. This necessitated an absence of a progeny to inherit her tremendous wealth. This powerful Ibadan woman chief, aside her many slaves, also owned several farms, exported agric produce to Porto-Novo, Badagry and Ikorodu and traded in tobacco, while also manufacturing a local product called Kijipa which she exported to America. Efunsetan also traded in arms and ammunition and was on record to have granted credit facilities on ammunition she sold to Aare Latoosa and his warriors in 1872 while they were on military expeditions.

The Efunsetan Afefe ti fe, a ti ri’di adiye expresses excitement at the final unraveling of a long-held secret, the denouement of a cryptic play whose ultimate exposure ends in tragedy. Literally, the hen’s naked and ugly rump is hidden from view by feathers that give it a seeming aesthetic beauty. The moment the breeze blows the feathers, exposing the contours of the rump, the hen is presented to the world in its original form – the bumpy, uneven surface – as opposed to the smooth, feathery assemblage of quills that the world saw hitherto.

 
 

Last week, Ogun State quaked like a city afflicted by a thunderstorm. Respected journalist-turned politician and Chairman of Ijebu East Local Government, Wale Adedayo, was the wind that blew the feathers off the Ogun hen’s rump. As the thunderstorm raged, it left hanging in the space a foul and smelly tang that was offensive to the nose. In a petition addressed to former governor of Ogun state and a leader of the All Progressives Congress, (APC) Chief Olusegun Osoba, copies of which were sent to the Economic Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission, (ICPC) Adedayo called for the investigation of Governor Dapo Abiodun, alleging that he was a kingpin of the mismanagement of local government funds in the State. Specifically, the now suspended chairman claimed that Abiodun withholds statutory allocations paid to councils in the state from the federation accounts. He also alleged that this blind thievery began immediately Abiodun took over the reign of office in May, 2019, leading to “zero allocation” of funds to develop the councils.

Adedayo also claimed that ecological funds due to the councils too had “developed wings without trace” as well as an N8 billion sum released by the Buhari government to the 20 local governments under the SURE-P assistance. This, he said, was also swallowed by the Abiodun administration, with no single payment to the councils. Adedayo claimed that upon enquiry from the state government, the councils were reportedly told that the deductions were due to funds the councils reportedly owed the state government, to which Adedayo said, “But I know for a fact that my Ijebu East Local Government is NOT owing Abeokuta one Naira!”

Allegations of theft of local government monies by state governors in Nigeria have had a long gestation. Several scholarly offerings in the area of local government administration have contextualized the local government as where the elusive redemption of the poorest of the poor of Nigerians can come from. This is because of its centrality and proximity to the grassroots of locality administration. However, local government administration is itself suffocating under the strangulating hold of corruption and fief grips of state governments who see them as cash cow where they can get easy largesse, allegedly filching the bulk of their heists from them and resulting in total asphyxiation of grassroots governance.

 

Local governments did the magic of the highly talked about developments in Nigeria during the First and second republics. From locally sourced revenues like tenement rates, motor park fees and allied taxes, councils raked in sufficient money to construct roads, bridges, award scholarships to deserving students in their localities and had enough for other social services. However, since the Ibrahim Babangida government, local governments have gradually lost steam, arriving at this lamentable intersection where governors have collectively offered to be pallbearers of the remains of council administration. The most dispiriting aspect of cries about massive bleeding of the blood of local governments is that successive federal governments, though aware of this fraud, have kept silent.

To ensure that their thievery of local government funds goes undetected, many of the 36 state governors perfected several methods of hiding the sleaze and the loot. In a Premium Times report, the authoritative newspaper was told by sources among local government chairmen in Ogun State that monies enter council accounts in the morning, and they develop wings by evening. It is a pattern adopted by many of the state governments.

 

The other pattern adopted by some state governors, which I have on good authority is also deployed in Ogun State, is swearing council chairmen to traditional oath. The recitation of the oath is that anyone who swears to it would never reveal the cryptic details of the local government heists.

I was told that the Ogun chairmen, shortly after they took office, were made to swear to the oath of non-disclosure of details of the council heists. Wale Adedayo, known by the sobriquet, Babalawo, steeped in the practices of traditional Africa, must have been persuaded to squeal by his conscience and the means he possessed to unlock the code of the oath he took alongside the other chairmen.

But for the fact that EFCC and ICPC are perceived to be either dead as dodo or gasping for breath, some characters should be in the cell now. State governments are alleged to have so compromised operatives of the commissions that they can only bark but would never go after well-heeled and federal government-connected state governments like Ogun to bite them. Otherwise, the modus operandi of discovering the veracity or otherwise of the suspended Ijebu local government chairman’s claims against the Ogun State governor are too clear for any feigning of pretense.

 

Wale Adedayo deserves commendation by all lovers of truth, accountability and traceability of Nigeria’s joint patrimony for his audacity to be different. This is why, with his graphic revelation of the alleged pattern of stealing of council funds by the Ogun State government, Nigerians should be egged on to equally, severally and jointly ask that that the federal government drills down on the truth or otherwise of the allegations. If the Abiodun government is thereafter found not guilty, Adedayo deserves censure for defamation. If the reverse is the case, government should be made public example of so that other governors can loosen their vice grips on the neck of council administration in Nigeria. The Bola Tinubu presidency must show that it has zero tolerance for the incubus of corruption by showing interest in the Wale Adedayo allegations. If it does not, it will be an ugly optic of connivance by government at the federal with its “good boys” in the state to steal the people blind. That Abiodun is a member of the APC as the president makes this need to double down on the allegation of corruption more pressing and auspicious.

Having said this, the twist that immediately occurred after Adedayo had leveled the allegation has not stopped confounding those who had raised cymbals in celebration of the anti-corruption credential of the now suspended council chairman. Shortly after the news of the petition hit town, local government chairmen in Ogun State, led by their leader, Hon Babatunde Emilola-Gazal, were reported to have filed down to beg Governor Abiodun who has the Swords of Damocles hanging over him. In a viral video, the chairmen, like a conquered fiefdom, prostrated to the governor “to forgive” their colleague.

As part of the twist, Adedayo was also said to have been part of the begging crowd, donning agbada. He was alleged to have made spirited attempt to beg the governor to forgive him, saying it was ise Esu, devil’s work. This is why I am personally afraid for the suspended chairman. I doubt if he had heard the fable of afi fila p’erin – the man who killed an elephant with his cap? Fully translated, it is afi fila p’erin, ojo kan ni’yi re mo, meaning the man who kills an elephant with his cap enjoys the adulation of his exploits only for a moment.

If Adedayo didn’t understand this, he should then race down to I. B. Akinyele’s highly authoritative Iwe Itan Ibadan which contains a far more believable and relatable story with same teaching. Akinyele was Olubadan of Ibadan from 1955-1964. In late 19th century, Ibadan took wars to neighbouring Yoruba towns, one of which was to Ilesa in today’s Osun State. The war was called Ogun Ilesa and it occurred in the late 1860s. Balogun Akere, highly resented among other warriors, led the battle for the Ibadan. There was thus mutiny among the Ibadan forces who perfected plans to get rid of their army General. As the warriors sat on how best to commit the regicide, one of them called Ajobo Seriki, originally from Ikire, cleared his throat and told them that if the Ibadan warriors would promise not to pay him with evil, he would help rid them of their General. According to him, he had a loin cloth, bante which, upon wearing it, and if he prostrated even to an Iroko tree, it “would fall before daybreak.” If he thus wore it to prostrate for Balogun Akere, within three days, he would die. When he was given a collective go-ahead and he went on all fours before the Balogun, the General died on the third day in 1869. His friend, Oyewo, also died the third day and it was reckoned that Ajobo Seriki prostrated to him as well. From the war front, Balogun Orowusi was appointed as his successor and he later became Baale, the head chief of Ibadan.

When the war ended and they got back home in Ibadan, an inner conspiracy among the chiefs of Baale Orowusi erupted and it was directed at Ajobo who had now been made Balogun. Ajobo had become stupendously rich and highly loved for his generosity and philanthropy. This further incensed the other chiefs, coupled with Ajobo’s own arrogance of power. Baale Orowusi thus ordered Ajobo to leave town or commit suicide in June, 1871. Ajobo however enlisted kings like the Alaafin, Awujale, Alake and Aseyin to help him make peace with Orowusi and the chiefs. The Ibadan monarchy had already acceded to this mediation, especially when Ajobo promised to come the following day to prostrate to them for atonement when, overnight, someone went to the chiefs to ask if they had forgotten that it was Ajobo who prostrated to Balogun Akere which led to his death. The next day, the conspiracy thickened and Ajobo was asked to leave Ibadan or commit suicide. He chose the former and early in the morning of a day in August, 1871, on his way out on exile to the Ijebu area, to hand over the staff of office back to Baale Orowusi, he prostrated to him. Orowusi died that month.

 

The two stories of Afi fila p’erin and the fall of Ajobo should tell the suspended chairman of Ijebu East local government that, as commendable as his anti-corruption fight is, it contains gross implications. First, in a Nigerian politics that shares physiognomy with cesspool, it may mark the end of his sojourn with politicians at the top because he has killed elephant with a cap and murdered Ogun State’s Balogun Akere with his bante. Second, such fights as his, akin to biting the bullet, are battles of no return. Only proper valiant undertake them. No one fights such battles haphazardly. Once a fighter places their hands on the plough, it would be a fatal mistake to turn back. As the Yoruba say, he who differently seeks the head of an ahun – tortoise and its legs cannot but have the totality of the ahun. The chairman should ask the biblical Lot’s wife why she turned to a pillar of salt. It was half measure determination. Again, no one stands under a roof and throws stone at the rooftop. After writing such damning petition, the now suspended chairman should have tendered his letter of resignation. The rest battle should have been fought from without.

 

Your Excellencies, greetings from Citizenville. It is not fashionable that anyone from this valley of citizens would nurse the pretension of counselling you as you perch on your high pedestals all over Africa. But times have changed. This is 2023.

Many of you still live in the era of England’s King James I (reigned 1603–1625) who famously propounded the self-serving theory of the Divine Rights of Kings. Like James, many of you think you are gods; you fail to come to terms with your mortality. But Your Excellencies, you’re not irreplaceable. There was a head of state before you; there will be many after you expire.

African Whirlwind

There is trepidation in high places because of the gale of coups sweeping through some countries, especially in West Africa. The only guarantee against a military coup is good governance. Witness what happened in Nigeria in 1976 when a group of soldiers shot their head of state in Lagos and tried to take over the government. Ordinary civilians poured onto the streets in support of the government headed by the slain General Murtala Mohammed.

The supreme irony of these times is that recent coups in Africa have been bloodless while elections have been brutally gory. Your shameful conduct gives democracy a bad name. Don’t you know that if you have the support of the people, they will defend you to the last man? It is futile, for example, for deposed President Ali Bongo of Gabon to beg us to make ‘big noise’ for his release from detention. Noise? You’re on your own, Sir! In the final analysis, the people are the state!

 

Americans and Europeans have no apologies when articulating their national or regional interests. Who is looking out for Africa? Our leaders are busy negotiating deals for their families and cronies at the expense of their people. Nigeria is currently saddled with some mind-boggling judgement debts on account of dubious deals negotiated by government officials to the detriment of their fatherland. In many cases, as long as the neo-colonialists give generous bribes to African leaders, they can steal the whole continent. How many of you are prepared to stand up for your people?

Europe Is Re-inventing Itself

While many of you are having a ball at the expense of your people, Europeans are facing up to the reality that the system of looting Africa and planting local surrogates as leaders will soon be over.

Europe’s total population is projected to fall by 5% between 2010 and 2050. Notably, the decline is projected at 17% among 25 to 64 year-olds. This will translate to less demand for goods and services and therefore less growth; and less dynamic societies. If things continue the way they are, with a dwindling population and less number of African slave-countries to loot, Europe will be in trouble. It is plain common sense, not charity, that is making some European and North American countries encourage new  immigrants; otherwise some of those countries will simply die out.

 

By comparison, a study conducted by Amadu Jacky Kaba revealed that, Africa’s population increased by over 1 billion, from 228.7 million in 1950 to 1.341 billion in 2020: 431 million in Eastern Africa; 404 million in Western Africa; 247.5 million in Northern Africa; 193.5 million in Middle Africa; and 64.5 million in Southern Africa.

Of the 1.341 billion people in Africa in 2020, 755.92 (56.4%) million are aged 24 and younger; and 533.5 (39.8%) million are under the age of 15. In demographic terms, Africa is blessed with the right population mix for great transformation. However, its leaders are neither prepared for current challenges nor future prospects. They cling on to power even where they’ve been ravaged by old age or become incontinent.

Can’t Stop Sunrise

President Paul Barthélemy Biya’a bi Mvondo, what are you still doing in Cameroun’s presidential palace at the age of 90 and having spent 48 years at the helm? You became Prime Minister on 30 June 1975 and President on 4 November 1982, The country is falling apart under your geriatric gaze. Please leave.

President (General) Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, you are the longest-serving president (1979 to date) of any country ever and the second-longest consecutively-serving current non-royal national leader in the world (after Cameroun’s Paul Biya). Your country is the third richest country in Africa with a per capita income of $8,462.30, yet 70% of your people live in penury. It’s time to go.

 

President (General) Denis Sassou Nguesso, you have been in and out of presidential power since 1979. If there’s anything you wanted to achieve for the Republic of the Congo, you ought to have done so long ago. You have stayed too long in the bush latrine. All manners of flies have started perching.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, I confess that I am one of your erstwhile admirers. You are a well grounded African patriot who will not point to his father’s compound with the left hand. But all good things must end. If you’re still nursing the dream of instituting a dynasty in Uganda, remember the African fable of how Fate neutralised the tortoise.

President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, after 30 years in power, you will go down in history as the ultimate dictator.  Under your watch, Eritrea has never had a functioning constitution. No elections. No legislature. You are the sole executive, judiciary and military power in Eritrea. No tears will be shed if coupists knock on your door.

President Paul Kagame, your place in history as a true African liberator and patriot is assured. Whether as a general or a statesman, you have proven your worth. Now, identify a successor and exit the scene. Anyone who says Rwanda can’t do without you is hoping to attend your funeral.

President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, press freedom is non-existent under your government. Your country is placed 176th out of 179 countries in the 2020 ranking of Reporters Without Borders. You’ve monopolised power since 1999. Leave the throne before the throne leaves you.

 

President Hage Gottfried Geingob, you were the first Prime Minister of Namibia from 1990 to 2002, and served as prime minister again from 2012 to 2015. Between 2008 and 2012 you served as Minister of Trade and Industry.In November 2014, you were elected president of Namibia. For 33 years you have been in the corridors of power. Must you wait until you’re smoked out?

President Faure Gnassingbé, son of General Gnassingbé Eyadema who was the arrow-head used by the French to assassinate Togo’s President Sylvanus Olympio in 1963 because Olympio’s first loyalty was to Togo rather than France. You snatched power after your father’s death and have cuddled it for 18 years. France is happy with you only because you’re their stooge. Beware, someday soon, the people will rise…

Arise Africa!

The African Union ought to be more than a mere talk shop. African heads of state find their voices only when there’s a coup because they fear that it could happen to them. See how the European Union is making one powerful entity of its member countries! AU either wakes up or it will consign itself to irrelevance. As far as Africa’s future is concerned, nobody can stop the sunrise!

I have been deeply saddened by some comments and inquiries by some younger elements who never experienced the consequences of military rule in Nigeria and so are being carried away by the current wave of military coup detat in Africa because of perceived failure of democracy and irresponsibility of some African leaders who continue to demonise democratic governance on the continent.

It is therefore expedient for some of us who are older and have experienced the grave consequences of even long years of military in Nigeria to sensitise the younger ones to manage their enthusiasm about prospects of return of military rule in Nigeria. Let’s quickly add that even some elders who may have been disappointed by our leaders  and are so excited by what is happening in parts of Africa and would like to pray for military intervention in our country should manage their expectations too about the bane of returning to Egypt.

Is it trite to claim at the moment that Nigeria isn’t Gabon?  Should we be afraid of speaking some truths to our own power that Nigeria isn’t Niger and so can’t be run down like Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Chad and Guinea? Can a family or even a cabal of witches and wizards hold Nigeria down for 56 years as they have done in Gabon?

As I was writing this I received a social media platform notification for this tragicomic comment: ‘O Lord how can we be praying in Nigeria and you’re  answering prayers in Gabon, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali?’.  Before I could mutter ‘Oh My God’, I received another one thus: ‘Military coups in Sub-Saharan region have been bloodless so far…it is democratic elections that have been violent with loss of lives…tells a story…’ There have been so many diverse and quixotic social media comments that can be painfully interpreted to mean that God should answer the prayers of the ‘wretched of the earth’ that soldiers should return to their ‘Federal Republic of The Nigerian Army’.

This should really be frightening. I do hope that our political leaders who have been behaving so irresponsibly even at this time should know the implications of this perception index at the moment. I hope they know that if the men in uniform return today with their dubious correcting fluids, there will be jubilation by the poor and the many who are currently fascinated by the bloody nature of elections and bloodless colour of coups. I hope our leaders most of whom just returned from Rwanda where the UNDP made them to study ‘good governance’ are reading all these writings on the walls.

But then let’s face the brass tacks, there is still no reason to compare the political condition in Gabon, Cameroon, Uganda, Togo with Nigeria’s where a strong man, a General elected into power once rose to amend the constitution to enjoy a third term in office but failed. Doubtless, Nigeria’s isn’t where it ought to be in the new world order but it isn’t as bad to the extent of calling back ‘soldiers of fortune’ who actually set the tone for institutionalisation of corruption that has taken us down this reproachful valley.

We need to tell the younger ones who keep comparing and contrasting Nigeria with some of the countries where military juntas are being hailed and celebrated that we actually lost our country to the military’s misadventures in power. There was a country that would have been a world power earlier than Singapore, Malaysia, India and even South Korea if the soldiers hadn’t struck in 1966, barely six years after independence from the British rule. Let’s begin to dip up how those who struck down democracy in 1966, raped and underdeveloped the most populous black nation on earth.

The economic effects of military rule have been disastrous. The traditional agricultural based economy was abandoned and they became extremely dependent on exports of oil which due to frequent fluctuations in oil prices led to an unstable economy.

You who are young, blessed are you if you can go down some memory lane with me to drink from some fountain of knowledge that history has given us. Since Nigeria’s independence in 1960, there have been five military coup d’etats in Nigeria. Between 1966 and 1999, Nigeria was ruled by a military government without interruption, apart from a short-lived return to democracy under the Second Republic of 1979 to 1983. However, the most recent coup occurred in 1993, and there have been no significant further attempts under the Fourth Republic, which restored multi-party democracy in 1999.

Trouble began for democracy on January 15, 1966 when a group of young military officers overthrew Nigeria’s government, ending the short-lived First Republic. The officers who staged the coup were mostly southern Christians led by Kaduna Nzeogwu and they assassinated several northern leaders including Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa, Northern Region Premier Ahmadu Bello, Western Region Premier, Ladoke Akintola, finance minister Festus Okotie-Eboh, and the four highest-ranking northern military officers.

The coup leaders publicly pledged to eliminate corruption, suppress violence, and hold new elections. Major General Johnson Aguiyi Ironsi, an Igbo but not party to the original conspiracy, intervened to impose discipline on the military and became head of state. He suspended the constitution, dissolved all legislative parties, banned political parties, and formed an interim federal military government, though without specifying the date on which civilian rule would be restored. That was the time unitary system was foisted on Nigeria and federalism was overthrown.

On 29 July 1966, a counter-coup was staged and Ironsi’s regime had fallen by August 1. Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon became head of state. Ironsi and the governor of the Western Region, Lieutenant Colonel Francis Adekunle Fajuyi, were among the casualties. Muhammadu Buhari, who was installed as head of state in the 1983 coup, was one of the officers involved. Both the coup and the counter-coup assumed an “ethnic colouration and they fuelled ethnic violence contributing to events, which ultimately led to the Nigerian Civil War.

After the end of the war, in October 1970, Gowon reiterated an earlier pledge to ensure that military rule would be terminated on 1 October 1976. In 1974, however, he postponed democratisation, explaining that Nigerians had not yet demonstrated “moderation and self-control in pursuing sectional ends.”

On 29 July 1975, Colonel Joseph Nanyen Garba, a close friend of Gowon’s, announced on Radio Nigeria that he and other officers had decided to remove Gowon as head of state and commander-in-chief. The coup was bloodless: Gowon was abroad, attending a meeting of the Organisation of African Unity, in Kampala, Uganda. He was replaced by Brigadier Murtala Muhammed with Brigadier Olusegun Obasanjo installed as deputy head of state. The New York Times reported then that General Hassan Katsina, a former Chief of Army Staff who had been demoted by Gowon, was said to be “the real author of the coup”. On October 1, Muhammed, like Gowon, pledged a return to civilian rule: following the drafting of a new constitution and various institutional changes, elections would be held, allowing for a transfer of power on 1 October 1979.

But on February 13, 1976, darkness fell again on Nigeria as the Hurricane Muhammed was assassinated at the outset of an abortive coup attempt. His driver and aide were also killed; as was Ibrahim Taiwo the military governor of Kwara state.

The coup was led by a group of officers who called themselves “young revolutionaries” in a radio broadcast. However, they lacked both civilian and military support. The coup was denounced by division commanders and government leaders outside Lagos and was quickly suppressed. Obasanjo became head of state.

Dimka(Inset) Pix:alchetron.com

The Nigerian government reported that the coup had been led by Lieutenant Colonel Bukar Suka Dimka and had aimed at restoring Gowon’s regime. In the end, 125 people were arrested in connection with the coup attempt and, in March, 32 people received death sentences, among them Dimka and the defence minister, Major General Illiya D. Bisalla.

On December 31, 1983, a group of senior military officers led a coup which ended the Second Republic’s democracy. The coup deposed the democratically elected government of President Shehu Shagari, which, in the first military broadcast after the coup, Brigadier Sani Abacha called “inept and corrupt”. Abacha, who was appointed head of state a decade later, was said to have played “a key role” in the coup. The sole reported casualty occurred when Brigadier Ibrahim Bako was killed in a fire fight during Shagari’s arrest in Abuja. Major General Muhammadu Buhari was installed as head of state.

On 27 August 1985, officers led by Major General Ibrahim Babangida, the army chief of staff, usurped Buhari’s government in a palace coup while Buhari was away from Lagos and his deputy, Major General Tunde Idiagbon was on a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia. The coup was announced on the radio in the morning by Major General Joshua Dogonyaro and Babangida later addressed the country, saying that Buhari’s regime had been “rigid and uncompromising” and had demonstrated “inconsistency and incompetence.”

On April 22, 1990, military officers led by Major Gideon Orkar attacked Dodan Barracks in an attempt to overthrow Babangida’s administration. Babangida escaped successfully, and fighting stopped ten hours later, when senior military commanders elsewhere in the country announced their support for Babangida. 42 men eventually convicted of involvement in the coup attempt were executed by firing squad in July 1990. That wasn’t the end of coup d’etat, after all.

Facing pressure to shift towards a democratic government after annulling an election result, which was considered free and fair,  Babangida resigned and appointed a multinational business executive, Ernest Shonekan as interim president on 26 August 1993. Shonekan’s transitional administration lasted only three months: on 17 November 1993, it was overthrown in a palace coup led by General Sani Abacha, Shonekan’s defence minister. This followed the annulment of the presidential elections, which had been advertised as the beginning of a Third Republic.

In September 1994, although he had pledged to restore democracy, Abacha issued a decree that placed his government above the jurisdiction of the courts, effectively giving him absolute power. The rest is history as we began a democratic journey since May 1999.

So far, more than $5 billion has been recovered from one of the past heads of state, General Sani Abacha who helped in overthrowing so many governments. General Obasanjo spent another eight years as an elected leader in addition to 1976-1979 as head of state. The same Obasanjo was said to have secretly recovered some undisclosed amount of loot from the last of the Generals who actually handed over to him in May 1999. Buhari too was elected and just left office on May 29, 2023, yet Nigeria is still not a member of G-20 economies in the world. Nor is the largest economy in Africa qualified to be a member of the BRICS block.

Why should we pray for another military intervention when there is a sense in which we can claim that they (the soldiers in power) were the organic architects of our misfortune in Nigeria. They have nothing to offer us in Nigeria again.

Let crisis merchants and businessmen who sponsor them beware. Nigeria isn’t a candidate for another military rule. Democracy can endure. I believe that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of an era of economic growth without development. The military people should continue to berate those who are calling on them to step forward with another stratagem to overthrow democracy. That would be terrible for Africa if Nigeria’s democracy cannot be made safe by its brand ambassadors in power.

The Federal Government’s expenditure exceeded revenue by N1.43tn in the first three months of 2023, according to figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The CBN revealed in its economic report for the third quarter of 2023 obtained by The PUNCH on Friday that this was 9.6 per cent higher than the last quarter of 2022 figure.

It stated, “The fiscal operations of the FGN in 2023, Q1, resulted in a deficit. At N1.43tn, the provisional fiscal deficit of the FGN was 9.6 per cent higher than the level in the preceding quarter but 22.1 per cent below the target.”

According to the report, the fiscal performance in 2023, Q1 was impaired by low oil revenue realisation. Consequently, the retained revenue of the FGN fell by 10.7 per cent, relative to 2022, Q4, and was 46.1 per cent below the quarterly target.

 

FGN’s aggregate expenditure also declined by 1.3 and 36.0 per cent, relative to the preceding quarter and the quarterly target, respectively.

It said, “Thus, the FGN overall deficit widened relative to 2022, Q4, but narrowed by 22.1 per cent when compared with the proportionate budget. Consolidated public debt, as at end-December 2022, stood at N46.25tn (or 22.8 per cent of GDP).

At N3.48tn, the CBN report said, gross federation revenue fell below the levels in 2022, Q4 and the budget benchmark by 0.4 and 26.6 per cent, respectively.

Non-oil revenue continued to dominate government revenue, accounting for 61.4 per cent, while oil receipts accounted for 38.6 per cent.

Oil revenue, at N1.34tn, declined by 3.0 and 43.5 per cent, relative to 2022, Q4 and quarterly target. The performance was indicative of revenue shortfalls from petroleum profit tax and royalties, following lower domestic crude production.

“Conversely, non-oil receipts, at N2.14n, improved against the preceding quarter by 1.2 per cent, but was 9.6 per cent below the quarterly target of N2.37tn,” the report said.

[Punch]

Two recent military coups in neighbouring Niger and Gabon have heightened discussions in Nigeria of the possibility of military intervention in the politics of the nation. The feeling appears so palpable considering the commonality of causative factors whichover the years always influenced military rule in Africa: societal restiveness, poor economy, failed elections, pervasive corruption, extravagance of politicians and the helplessness of civic society accentuated by the disappearance of the middle class.

In Nigeria, the division of society into two classes only; that is those who have everything and those who have nothing is more visibly felt than anywhere else. This has left many people to pray not just for something to change but for it to come through the efficacy of a military coup. The recent decision of the military hierarchy in Nigeria to formally dismiss such undemocratic undertones in the land is instructive.

 

Democracy is no doubt acclaimed world-wide as the best form of government, but then democracy is not a matter for claims. Rather, it is a system of government which is based on freedom and the politics of equality. Its features are not only sacred; they are offensive when adulterated. There are 5 such critical features, namely: the sovereignty of the people, the rule of law, free and fair elections, majority rule and the protection of minority rights. To qualify as a democracy therefore, the sovereignty of the people on whose behalf government functions is not negotiable. It is the people who matter and not the government. A democratic country in which everyone is equal before the law, cannot allow certain privileged citizens to use law enforcement agencies to detain their opponents or critics without trial. To manipulate an election process for losers to become winners nullifies real majority rule just as democracy as a game of numbers is contingent upon the protection of minority rights.

 

What the above featuressuggest is that those who are anxious to prevent military coups in Nigeria must first endeavour to make Nigeria a democracy. It is erroneous to continue to argue that the worst form of democracy is better than the most benevolent military rule because there is no difference between military rule and civilian rule or fake democracy. Those who argue that soldiers who shoot their way into government were not elected by the people must be fair enough to agree that those who come into office through the manipulation of the votes of citizens were also not elected by the people. Soldiers in government are not accountable to the people because they were not elected by the people. Similarly, election riggers in government only mouth service to the people; rather than serve, they amass wealth in readiness for the manipulation of the next set of elections. It is therefore undemocratic to have elections that are neither free nor fair.

In truth, Nigerian politicians do not believe in hitch-free elections. They prefer to devote all their energies towards circumventing electoral laws and guidelines. Although the constitution provides for an electoral body made up of persons who are transparently non-partisan, many electoral officials in Nigeria are card carrying members of the ruling party. By so doing, some players in the game of election are also referees in the same game. Again, our constitution provides for a democratically elected system of local government, yet our governors always ensure that government at that local level is run by caretaker committees made up of party members. Where local government elections are organized, the state electoral bodies are directed to ensure the election of all chairmen and councillors of the ruling party.  The goal is to divert public resources accruing to them at that level from the federation account to the personal use of governors and their parties.

In a democracy, everything is scheduled. For example, after electioneering comes governance. In Nigeria’s democracy, every time is for electioneering. As soon as one election ends, electioneering begins for the next election due in 4 years. Already, state governors who came into office a few months ago are currently busy leading the campaign teams in other states whose elections are holding soon. When will such governors govern their states? Why can’t such governors concentrate on governance while their party officials use the party machinery for the current campaigns? In Edo State, for instance, governorship elections are holding not this year but next year, yet the matter of the moment in that state is the number of governorship aspirants that are already engaged in open campaigns. If Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa with nearby governorship elections are doing nothing else but electioneering, should that also be the fate of others such as Edo whose elections are not immediately around the corner?

The result of our culture of “electioneering without end” is poor governance which makes it virtually impossible for the living standards of the ordinary people to improve. Nigeria’s electioneering is not only long and capital intensive; it is also bastardized. To start with, incumbents are busy placing hurdles in the way of their opponents during campaigns. This short-changes the electorate because state facilities do not belong to a ruling political party; they belong to the people and ought to be used for public enlightenment. Level playing field which guarantees the politics of equality is distorted when opposition parties are precluded from using public facilities such as stadium or any other platform. Indeed, state media outfits are propelled to shut their gates to opposition political parties in breach of the electoral law which directs the public media to provide equal time for all.

Poor governance in society frustrates all and sundry such that aggrieved soldiers think of nothing but coups while traumatized citizens troop out to rejoice and embrace military intervention in politics. To prevent Africa’s wind of coups from blowing towards Nigeria, so much has to be done to keep the society on good footing. First, it is necessary to draw a fine line between electioneering and governance. A presidential or governorship candidate has to be loyal to his party but when he becomes president or governor, his oath of office demands that his loyalty shifts to the general public. The trend in Nigeria in which members of the ruling party want to constitute government alone is parochial. In the last few days some APC members had openly condemned the appointment of a non-party member into a newly constituted board. The posture works against inclusivity as the office-holder was not elected by members of only one party.

Monopoly which members of a ruling party seek to exercise over government is particularly dangerous as it has capacity to swell up the numerical strength of ordinary people who feel aggrieved against government.  It is in fact offensive for a government to allow itself to be seen as not belonging to all. Some non-partisan citizens especially notable technocrats must be included in any government that intends to succeed in developing society. After all, the most effective members of successive governments in Nigeria were sourced on the basis of their track records of service and not because they were card-carrying members of the ruling party. Except government follows such well tested pattern of leadership recruitment, conducive environment would be created for civil society groups to distract government with criticisms only.

It is also important for government to depoliticise the security agencies as well as the military. Ironically, those who went to court in the past against the use of the military in our elections have since 2015 consolidated the same anomaly. But when it is convenient it is said that the military must not intervene in politics. There is the urgent need to equip the forces appropriately and give them attractive conditions of service. The new National Security Adviser has reportedly begun moves to reposition the police to take full charge of internal security. It is hoped that he would also sensitize them to recognise that in a democracy, public protests are allowed and not teargassed. It is also hoped that the common practice of supersession among our uniform forces would be checked. If not, those who are superseded or compulsorily retired to pave way for their chosen juniors to take control of the forces will join the army of aggrieved citizens especially the massive unemployed youths to canvass, urge and pray for military coups. 

Unions in the critical sectors of the economy and 52 other affiliates of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, have stepped up the mobilisation of members ahead of the two-day warning strike planned by the workers’ body to protest the increasing suffering of citizens following the removal of subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly known as petrol.

The warning strike holds between Tuesday, September 5 and Wednesday, September 6, 2023.

Among the critical sector unions are the Nigeria Union of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, NUPENG, which controls the fuel distribution across the country; the National Union of Electricity Employees, NUEE; the Private Telecommunications and Communications Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, PTECSSAN, and National Union of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions Employees, NUBIFIE, that controls the junior workers in the financial industry.

Others include the Maritime Workers Union of Nigeria, MWUN; National Union of Air Transport Employees, NUATE; Association of Nigerian Aviation Professionals, ANAN, National Association of Air Pilots and Engineers, NAPE; National Union of Food Beverage and Tobacco Employees, NUFBTE; National Union of Chemical, Footwear, Rubber, Leather and Non-Metallic Products Employees, NUCFRLANMPE, and others in the manufacturing sector.

While some of these unions such as the MWUN, had already written to intimidate their employers and other stakeholders about the impending shutdown, others said they would formally inform their employers on Monday.

MWUN, in a circular by its Deputy Secretary General, Erazua Oniha, on behalf of the Union’s Secretary General, Felix Akingboye, among others, said: “We receive a communique from the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, on the above subject, directing that all NLC affiliates commence a two-day nationwide warning strike to demonstrate our readiness for the indefinite strike later in the month and to also demand that the State vacates the illegally occupied National Headquarters of the National Union of Road Transport Workers, NURTW.

“This decision was reached at a meeting of the National Executive Council, NEC, of NLC, which was held on Thursday, August 31, 2023 to deliberate the way forward, consequent to the increase in the pump price of petrol by the FG without consideration to providing palliatives to cushion the definite effect on the Nigerian workers and citizens.

“Consequent to the foregoing, all National Administrative Council, NAC, Central Working Committee, CWC, NEC and members in all ports, jetties, terminals and Oil and Gas platforms nationwide are by this notice directed to commence on immediate and total mobilisation of our members to effectively ensure their participation in the nationwide warning strike from Tuesday 5 to Wednesday 6 September 2023.” Similarly, in the telecommunications sector, General Secretary of PTECSSAN, Okonu Abdullahi, told Sunday Vanguard that members would fully participate in the strike action, saying “We operate in a very sensitive sector. What will happen for now is that because it will be a warning strike, any fault that occurred within the two days will not be attended to.”

In the same vein, Acting General Secretary of NUEE, Dominic Igwebike, informed that “the workers in the electricity sector were part of the decision to embark on the warning strike. Therefore, we are fully prepared to do as directed.”

Though the President and General Secretary of NUPENG, Williams Akporeha and Afolabi Olawale, could not be reached at the time of this report, a senior official of NUPENG who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: “We are an affiliate of NLC therefore, the decision is binding on us. In fact, I can tell you that we have stepped up mobilisation for the action.”

Speaking, President of NUCFRLANMPE, Babatunde ‘Goke Olatunji, said: “We are fully mobilized for the action. I can tell you that this type of strike does not need much effort to mobilize people because everybody is in pain and going through unbearable suffering.”

Recall that the NLC President, Joe Ajaero, had after its NEC’s meeting on Friday, said: “NEC in session of NLC resolved to embark on a total and indefinite shutdown of the nation within 14 working days or 21 days from today until steps are taken by the government to address the excruciating mass suffering and the impoverishment experienced around the country.

“To commence a two-day warning strike on Tuesday and Wednesday, 5th and 6th September 2023 to demonstrate our readiness for the indefinite strike later in the month and to also demand that the state vacates the illegally occupied national headquarters of the National Union of Road Transport Workers.”

 

The NLC also resolved to embark on a mass protest and rally in Imo State in September over what it described as a renewed onslaught by the government and its agents against labour unions.

Ajaero explained that the proposed strike action was necessitated as a result of the government’s deliberate neglect and disregard to engage the relevant stakeholders through the channel of social dialogue.

He said the FG has refused to engage and reach an agreement with the organized labour on critical issues on the consequences of the unfortunate hike in prices of petroleum which has unleashed massive suffering on Nigerian workers and masses.

“There is a renewed onslaught against trade unions and their leadership by the states and their agents across Nigeria. The Police under the instruction of certain forces peddling the name of the President of Nigeria have invaded and occupied the national headquarters of the NURTW headquarters seeking to install its own executives”

[Vanguard]

 

It is a difficult time to be a Nigerian. Living in a Hobbesian fictional world, where everything seems nasty, brutish and short, particularly in the turbulent eight years of Muhammadu Buhari’s reign; nothing has changed for Nigerians in the past three months.

President Bola Tinubu whose leadership Nigerians expected to birth a new lease of life, wasted no time in making the situation worse for them following the removal of subsidy from Premium Motor Spirit. Since June when the Commander-in-Chief announced subsidy removal, things have not been the same for Nigerians, many of whom now lament openly the pitiable conditions under which they live.

However, there is hope on the horizon that things are likely to change for good with the recent inauguration of the Federal Executive Council by the President. This optimism derives in part from the pledged commitment of the first citizen to make a difference in the lives of Nigerians, having admitted recently that the past few years have been difficult for the people.

 

The new ministers are expected to hit the ground running but how fast remains a matter of conjecture. For a President desirous of turning around the fortunes of a nation whose potentials have been dwarfed by decades of poor planning and policy somersault; critical sectors of the economy must be allowed to breathe without difficulty.

While in the saddle, Buhari placed Nigeria on the global map for the wrong reasons. From having the highest number of out-of-school children estimated conservatively at over 10 million to being the world capital of poverty, Africa’s largest country became a consistent symbol of jokes around the world.

He came on a three-point agenda namely, fight against insecurity, revival of the economy and war against corruption but at the time of exit, Buhari had left the world and millions of his supporters disappointed as none of the cardinal programmes of his administration came close to witnessing even a marginal improvement since he took over the reins of governance in 2015. Across the land, gunmen boasting their connection in high places killed for fun even as they had a field day breaking into correctional facilities to free their members arrested previously by security agencies. 

The economy suffocated from a combination of ills, including fiscal indiscipline, monetary policy somersault, and low productivity to mention but a few. All these, according to President Tinubu, will soon give way to a more robust economy where the naira would appreciate in value side by side with other currencies in the world. Perhaps, there is a reason to be hopeful.

The cabinet turned out not exactly what Nigerians expected, yet, the inclusion of the likes of Bosun Tijani, Muhammed Pate and Wale Edun as well as a handful of others is enough to look forward to greater things in the months ahead but for Nigeria to stand a chance of living true to her potentials, critical sectors of the economy must witness significant turnaround as quickly as possible.

Judiciary

For the better part of the immediate past administration, the rule of law was constantly in focus for the wrong reasons. Court orders not favourable to the Federal Government were sometimes ignored without a thought for posterity.

The disobedience of court order against the continued trial of former Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen, and flagrant refusal to obey court orders for the release of Ibrahim El-zakzaky, leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria and Nnamdi Kanu readily come to mind.

Thus, President Tinubu will do himself a world of good by giving the judicial arm of government the respect it deserves, for in the words of Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Mike Ozekhome, much is expected from the judiciary if Nigeria must win back her status as one of the leading black nations on earth.

To attain this feat, the country needs “Massive law reforms, digitalisation of the entire court processes and practices, immediate enhancement of judges conditions of service, including salaries, emoluments, annual travels, medical care, local and foreign seminars, workshops, conferences and a guaranteed house to retire to.”

 

Security

Nigeria witnessed one of her most challenging times under Buhari following the escalation of killings, kidnapping for ransom, and terrorism in different parts of the country. Despite his military background, Buhari had no solution to the deadly campaigns by terrorists who even embarrassed him on more than one occasion in his ancestral home of Daura, Katsina State.

In many instances, Katsina State witnessed attacks from terrorists with Buhari in town; an indication that they were neither scared nor believed that the then President had what it takes to address the security situation.

Like Buhari, Tinubu’s administration has started off on a bad note. With barely three months in the saddle, the former Lagos State Governor’s ability to secure the nation is currently a subject of debate. A fortnight ago, three officers and 22 soldiers died in Zungeru, Niger State, when gunmen laid ambush.

“Troops, while conducting offensive operations around Kundu general area in Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State, got into an ambush. Following a firefight, three officers and 22 soldiers were killed in action, while seven soldiers were wounded.

“Subsequently, the NAF MI-171 helicopter was dispatched to evacuate the casualties. While outbound to Kaduna, the helicopter crashed with the corpses of the 14 personnel earlier killed in action, seven of the personnel were wounded in action, while two pilots and two crew members of the helicopter also died.

“Operations are ongoing to recover the bodies and investigate the cause of the air crash, which will be communicated. Surely, no group will strike its own troops with impunity,” the Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Edward Buba, told journalists at a briefing on the tragedy. 

President Tinubu had a few weeks ago named Abubakar Badaru and Bello Matawalle as Minister and Minister of State, Defence respectively. The two who until recently were governors of Jigawa and Zamfara states were not bookmakers’ predictions for the highly sensitive security sector based on their zero military experience.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, security consultant, Captain Umar Aliyu (retd.) came short of saying that the choice of the two ex-governors might leave Nigeria in a worse state.

He said, “When you look at where we are coming from and where we are, you can then begin to imagine where we are going. The immediate past Minister of Defence was General Bashir Magashi (retd). When Magashi came on board this same APC under Buhari, we wondered why it had to be him. The reason was that Magashi as of the time he was appointed minister by Buhari had been out of touch with governance. At that time, there were enough Generals who had served in a democracy from 1999 to the time Magashi was appointed Defence Minister but Buhari did not choose any of them. Buhari went on to bring in a man who served his entire career in a military dispensation. The man had no idea of what the democracy of security was all about.

“If a General could only achieve what we saw the last time, what more of an Abubakar Badaru and Bello Matawalle? Even though being a Defence Minister is not exclusively the job of a General, having the required antecedents is an added advantage. If you put a blind man in a dark room, with black walls, he is handicapped because even if you give him eyes, he won’t see.”

That said, Aliyu warned of imminent danger if the two ministers failed to master the intrigues in their new terrain fast enough.

“If Badaru and Matawalle do not tread carefully, there are hawks in the Ministry of Defence who will exploit their current situation and at the end of the day, the bulk will stop on their tables whether for credit or for blame,” he added.

Taking a different position, security expert and golden member of the Switzerland Security Association, Mr Jackson Ojo, said there was no cause for alarm, adding that the zero military experience notwithstanding, the ex-governors could make a difference if they would be able to muster the political will to get things done in the interest of the nation. 

His words, “The minister of Defence is an administrative officer but he has enormous influence and powers over the military and paramilitary security apparatus of the country. The most important thing is for the minister to have will power. If the President really wants to see the difference in the security situation of this country, there is no minister that will not act.

 

“The fact that he has a retired senior police officer as the National Security Officer and they are working in tandem is enough reason to hope for a new dawn. When the NSA came to Port Harcourt for the inspection of oil facilities recently, I was glad that he came with the Minister and Minister of State for Defence. It shows they will work in synergy with the NSA. Once the service chiefs see that these people are working together, they will have to cooperate.

Badaru may not be a security expert, but he has been a chief security officer of a state for eight years. The most important thing is the cooperation with the NSA. The two ministers can do a lot. It is good that the President has charged everyone to hit the ground running. That is an added motivation for them to perform because non-performance can earn them the sacking.”

Finance

The naira is on a free-fall; no thanks to the monetary inconsistency of the Buhari-led administration, with a Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, whose professional calling as a banker was compromised by his near venture into the world of partisan politics.

Although President Tinubu has brought in an economic expert, Wale Edun, as the Minister of Finance to steer the wheel of the sector, Abuja-based tax consultant, Adams Echono said the new man “would need to move very quickly to sanitise the Nigeria financial system. Nigeria is in dire straits financially and will need the expertise of Mr Wale Edun to bring some stability to the nation’s economy. The minister’s input will bring stability into our fiscal and monetary system, help manage our huge debt portfolio and ensure fiscal responsibility across all tiers of government.”

Education 

The Minister of Education, Tahir Mamman, has also promised to hit the ground running, having assured Nigerians that the National Library would be completed in 21 months. Besides this all-important project, Nigerians are eagerly awaiting his magic wand on how to revive the sector, particularly at the tertiary level.

While it may be too early to hazard a guess at the programmes he is likely to unveil in the weeks ahead, Nigerians will be glad to have in the saddle a Minister of Education who will play his part in ensuring that the perennial industrial actions witnessed during the administration of General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) become a thing of the past.

The global ranking of universities is an area Professor Tahir needs to avail the nation of his wealth of experience and know-how. How he does this remains to be seen in the months ahead.

Marine and Blue Economy

The creation of the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy is seen as a strategic move by President Tinubu to delve into Nigeria’s untapped aquatic endowments. Blessed with vast waterways spread across the northern and southern plains, Nigeria has yet to reap bountifully from this sub-sector. This, experts attributed to decades of neglect by successive administrations; military and civilian combined.

The appointment of the immediate past governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, has been commended by industry players not because of his expertise but because of his willingness to learn and determination to make a difference.

The minister has expressed his readiness to bring in expertise to tap into the sector, earn the nation revenue and invest in the sector value chain for sustainable impact and job creation. Perhaps, the nation’s quest to attain United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal number 14 (Life under Water) is on its way to fruition with the creation of the Marine and Blue Economy

 

Speaking with our correspondent, Gombe-based agriculturalist, Sanusi Yunusa, tasked Oyetola to make the sector the next goldmine after oil and gas.

 “I was particularly happy with the creation of this Ministry. Although I don’t know the minister’s brief, I do hope he is allowed to make decisions concerning fishery. There is no reason for this country to be spending huge amount of foreign exchange to import fish and fish products. We have the waters. The Lake Chad that is drying up should be quickly looked into as well. We have a lot of money-spinning opportunities in this country, but investment is lacking,” he said.

Mr Yunusa further called on the Federal Government to give the new minister the freedom to implement his ideas to avail the country the mileage embedded in the sector.

Works

Except for the education and health sectors, works is one area President Bola Tinubu can carve a niche for his administration in the next four years. Some of the nation’s highways had in the past few decades turned to death traps, following successive administration’s failure to either rehabilitate them or construct new ones.

Despite claims by the immediate past administration that it constructed 600 roads spread across the country, Nigerians, majority of whom travel by road, would be glad to see the new Minister of Works, Dave Umahi hit the ground running. Good a thing, the immediate past governor of Ebonyi State has promised to bring his engineering ingenuity to bear starting with the lightening up of the Lagos/Ibadan expressway.

Although politicians’ words are often taken with a pinch of salt, there is a sufficient premise to hope in the new era given Umahi’s impressive achievement in infrastructural development in Ebonyi State, particularly in roads and flyovers’ construction. In what appears a deviation from the past, Umahi’s reign may involve local contractors with the Federal Government now mooting the possibility of embracing public private partnership once again. 

“We are going to be reintroducing the PPP to allow private individuals or firms take part in our road construction and running same for a period of time. We are not going to introduce tolling on our federal expressways but maybe with time, we will. What matters now is to fix these roads,” Umahi was quoted as saying in a maiden meeting with staff members of the ministry and contractors in Abuja recently.

Perhaps, the minister’s resolve to deploy technology will not only culminate into quality jobs but may spell doom for contractors whose stock in trade is poor service delivery.

Speaking recently in Abuja, Umahi said, “I will challenge my fellow engineers on the issue of concrete technology. Even in the midst of forex challenge and petroleum crisis, the nation is endowed with natural resources; so, we should be prepared for the renewed hope of the present government anchored on change.

“I am not an office person; I am a field person, which means we are going to make changes. We are starting inspection tours to inspect ongoing projects and to know the ones to come up with.”

Should the PPP arrangement come on board, direct and indirect jobs would be created to absorb a good number of Nigerians who would be too glad to deploy their creative energies to earn a living.

Power

Power Minister, Adebayo Adelabu’s assuring words of stable and affordable power supply is music to the ears of Nigerians who have been treated to epileptic power supply for decades. Adelabu said the Federal Government would go the whole distance to take advantage of the Nigerian Electricity Act, 2023, which provides for a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for the operation of a fully privatised, cost and service-reflective tariff, to boost power supply across the country. 

Stable power supply, if attained, would propel Tinubu to the summit of national prominence given that previous administrations failed to deliver on promises made. Already, a total sum of N7tn has been expended as direct intervention in the power sector by the Federal Government. There is a belief that stable power supply is likely to birth a new crop of businessmen and a return of companies who left Nigeria a few years ago owing to the cost of powering their plants on their own.

An inspector of Police captured on video camera slapping a commuter repeatedly in Imo State is now cooling off at the Provost Marshal’s office at the Police headquarters, in Abuja.

 

The officer was captured by another commuter on a shuttle, first, manhandling the victim who appeared not to be intimidated by the officer.

The incident captured by another commuter in a 41-minute viral video showed the victim wearing a face cap and a white T-shirt.

The victim could be heard saying, “I did not do anything”, when the officer, clearly infuriated, removed the victim’s cap and used it to hit his face.

When the rest of the commuters pleaded with him to stop hitting the young man, he warned them and asked that they stay away from the matter.

The officer again threatened to slap another commuter standing beside the victim who was pleading.

The officer was further captured saying to the victim, “Are you the only person? If you say rubbish, I will beat you. I will tell my boys to lock you in the booth.

 

“Do you know who I am? How many of your family are police inspectors? I am asking you”, he yelled at the victim who was trying to make a comment while also hitting him.

The victim then calmly responded saying, “This thing you are doing here, if I make a call you will be in trouble”.

Enraged by his statement, the officer hit him further, attempting to use a stick he was holding on the victim.

Updating Nigerians on Saturday evening, the spokesperson of the police said the inspector was “brought to the FHQ, Abuja, and he has been handed over to the Provost Marshal for necessary disciplinary action”’

He added, “We will not condone any act of unprofessionalism”.

Muyiwa also posted an image of the Inspector in his office in Abuja, where he was made to watch himself in the viral video.

 

In the dying days of his administration in 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo sold 51 percent of federal government’s stakes in two of Nigeria’s four ailing refineries to Bluestar Oil Services Ltd — a consortium floated by Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil and Transcorp Plc — for $761 million. Shortly after the inauguration of a new administration, the oil industry unions — apparently prompted — kicked that Obasanjo sold the refineries to his cronies, insisted that one of the refineries alone was worth over $5 billion, and staged a four-day strike. President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua gleefully reversed the privatisation and returned the refineries to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

Alhaji Abubakar Lawal Yar’Adua, appointed the NNPC group managing director by President Yar’Adua, told the world in September 2007 that all our refineries would start working at “near full capacity” by December 2007 after “rehabilitation” which, you may want to know, cost us several billions of naira. In preparation for the magic, he said government had awarded a $52 million contract for the repair of the Chanomi Creek pipeline, the main feeder pipeline to Warri and Kaduna refineries blown up by militants in 2006. All was set for the amazing revamp of the 445,000 barrels per day (bpd) refineries, after which we would stop importing petroleum products and live together happily ever after.

What happened next? We are now in September 2023 — on the 16th anniversary of Yar’Adua’s monumental promise — and Nigeria is still waiting for the magic to happen. (As an aside, Yar’Adua was named in the Panama Papers to have secretly bought an £890,000 house in London in 2008 while serving as the NNPC GMD, using a company he registered in the British Virgin Islands — but there is nothing to see there). Sixteen years after the unions said the Port Harcourt refinery alone was worth $5 billion, no one would buy it for N5 million. Sixteen years after we bungled a major victory for local refining of petroleum products, we are still helplessly and hopelessly hooked on fuel imports.

But Yar’Adua was not alone. Every single president after him promised to get the refineries working at “near full capacity”. President Goodluck Jonathan vowed to raise the dead. Between 2013 and 2015, he reportedly spent $396 million on turnaround maintenance (TAM) — and the refineries have still not worked, although I admit that the fortune of a few individuals experienced turnaround miracles. In April 2021, Mallam Mele Kyari, the CEO of NNPC Ltd, followed the enviable tradition of his predecessors by signing a $1.5 billion contract to rehabilitate the Port Harcourt refinery. President Bola Tinubu has now customarily promised that the refineries will be back by December 2023.

 

In summary, 16 years after we reversed the sale of the refineries because they were bought by Obasanjo’s “cronies” and promised to get them back to “near full capacity”, we have burnt billions of dollars on TAM contracts and we are still here waiting patiently and enthusiastically for Godot. We are still promising to get the refineries to work “by December” (why always December?) and have no clue when this bizarre bazaar will be over. From the time of Gen Sani Abacha till date, all the presidents have played the same card of getting the refineries to work. It appears there is a hymn sheet at the Presidential Villa from which they all sing: the harmony is enduring and unbelievable.

But you know what? If you take a proper look at the financial and economic implications of fuel importation in Nigeria, you will find a damning explanation for some of the woes overwhelming us today. Shall we discuss the billions of dollars we have burnt on demurrage and storage charges on fuel imports since 1999 (because our ports do not have the adequate reception capacity and the NNPC does not have sufficient storage facilities)? Shall we discuss the fact that the resources we have burnt on demurrage and storage expenses over the same period could have built the biggest refineries in the world and turned us to exporters of both crude oil and petroleum products?

Does anyone ever calculate how much of our forex earnings we burn on fuel importation? This is the largest single consumer of forex today. I wonder what might have been if we had taken another route. When Obasanjo was president and we had considerable savings from oil revenue, I campaigned vigorously that we should invest in a new refinery. I was lectured by neo-liberal fanatics that government should not run a refinery, that it should be the business of the private sector. I conceded but with a request: let us build a refinery (since no investor was willing to do so), lease out the management and sell it off after some years. Let us just stop fuel importation by any means!

 

The cost of the decisions we took — or failed to take — yesterday is coming back to bite us hard today and threatening to pull down the already fragile economy. With dwindling oil output and export, we are currently facing a double whammy: we export little oil and spend the little income to import petroleum products because we do not refine at home. Things got so bad at a stage that we did not have enough crude to exchange for products, so we mortgaged future oil production in order to import petrol for today. We are digging one hole after the other to fill the other holes we have dug everywhere. It is difficult to understand how we do things here and expect positive outcomes.

Help me make sense of this. A farmer produces yams and sells a tuber for N2,000 to Mama Put. But because he does not have the mortar and pestle to pound the yam, he goes to the Mama Put to buy a wrap of pounded yam for N1,000. Mama Put can probably make N10,000 per tuber, selling it as pounded, fried, boiled or roasted yam, or making yam flour and amala from it. Mama Put can sell the peels as feed for goats. There are several products from yam! Now, wait for this: our farmer friend runs into a harvest problem and starts buying pounded yam on credit, promising to pay with next year’s harvest. That is Nigeria for you: selling crude oil and spending the revenue to import petrol.

The country should be exporting petroleum products — such as petrol, diesel, low pour oil fuel, and jet fuel — and earning billions of dollars, in addition to the little matter of jobs and tax revenue. We want the naira to exchange at N1/$1 (whatever the merits are) but how can you spend all your forex on importing petrol and still expect the naira not to keep losing value? What else are you exporting to earn dollars? Where are the dollars? If income from your biggest export, which used to account for 90 percent of your forex earnings, has been going down for years, what else are you doing to get more dollar inflow into your economy? It seems we are expecting the dollar to fall from heaven.

Let us go to Singapore briefly. The country is less than the size of Lagos state and has a population of 5.6 million. But we are not here to discuss land mass and population. My interest is the size of the intellect. The country does not have oil but it has some of the biggest refineries in the world with the capacity to refine 1.5 million bpd. Nigeria, one of the world’s richest in crude reserves, has been having the capacity for 445,000 bpd since 1987 and rarely refines a barrel. Singapore is regarded as Asia’s oil hub and earned $40.8 billion from exporting refined petroleum products in 2021. Yes, $40.8 billion! It is not about resource wealth or political system. It is the brain. Vision. Mission. Passion.

 

What more can I say? Ajaokuta Steel Mill has become a centre of stealing since it was conceived in 1979. Up till today, we have not finished stealing through Ajaokuta. If it was a country where our heads were properly screwed on our necks, we would be earning billions of dollars from exporting iron and steel, to say nothing about the jobs and the value chain in the economy. According to data by CEPII, the leading French centre for research and expertise on the world economy, China earned $61 billion from iron and steel exports in 2021. Japan earned $35 billion, Germany $32.8 billion, Russia $30.5 billion, and South Korea $28 billion. These things start from the brain. It is not magic.

Don’t let us get started with palm oil. Forget the legendary story of how an Asian country came to take palm seedlings from Nigeria some decades ago and is now a world leader in the production of the cash crop. As far as I am concerned, that is history and we should move on for Pete’s sake. The part I cannot understand for the life of me is why we keep lamenting as if lamentation ever solved any problem. There are more depressing statistics to share with us but I think we can chew on this for a while: in 2022, Indonesia earned $27.8 billion from palm oil exports alone. I am attracted by the enormous forex earnings for sure, but I am more smitten by the associated economic activities.

Let’s be frank: the solution to our economic and security challenges are hidden in plain sight. It is no rocket science. Nigeria can be one of the biggest exporters of palm oil, petrol, solid minerals, name it — if we use our brains positively. We have no business with being a net importer of petroleum products, so much so the aviation industry is sometimes paralysed because of fuel scarcity. Nigeria is the only country that experiences this constant affliction. Some things are too weird about us. That is why some think the country is under a spell. I can’t say if it is a spiritual problem because spiritual matters are above my paygrade, but I am sure that we don’t know what we are doing. We’re lost.

But when you see that some sectors are doing well —  fintech and entertainment, for instance — in spite of the government, you cannot but conclude that the political leadership has questions to answer. We have a warped concept of governance. When you run a system where the unwritten code is that leadership is all about personal comfort and there are no consequences for bad behaviour, what you get is a Nigeria. We know what ails us. It’s been well diagnosed. But we have refused to take our medication: competent and patriotic leadership at all levels. Our capacity for shortsightedness and selfishness is legendary and damaging. Do I really need to spell that out again?

 

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

GABON GARRISSON

Gabon is the latest African country to come under the jackboot with the overthrow of President Ali Bongo Ondimba shortly after he was declared winner of a flawed election that returned him to office for a third term. He had succeeded his late father, Omar, in 2009. I was amused that father and son had ruled Gabon for a combined period of 56 years before the military coup — only for me to read reports that the new military ruler, Brigadier General Brice Oligui Nguema, is the ousted president’s cousin. I didn’t know whether to be angry or burst into laughter. I now can’t say what is more odious — the father-and-son stranglehold on Gabon or the incursion by their extended family. Africa!

 

COUP CONTAGION

Military coups are back in full force in Africa and I must be one of the least excited. I will say this one more time: military should stay out of politics. By their training and orientation, soldiers are not primed to govern the civil populace. Most of Africa was ruled by soldiers in the 1970s and 1980s and if they were geniuses, Africa would be competing with the rest of the world today. I will never argue against the notion that there is a general leadership problem on the continent. I will also not deny the fact that liberal democracy has not delivered the dividends as it should. But the military has not proved itself to be better either. Let’s give democracy a chance, no matter how imperfect. Liberties.

 

ALL EYES ON P&ID

There are underground moves by some selfish Nigerians to cut a deal in the P&ID case by seeking to arrest the British high court judgment. The facts, according to our lawyers, are positive for us. More so, we have a right of appeal if we lose, so it is difficult to understand why some fellows are trying to stampede President Bola Tinubu to go for out-of-court settlement. If we win, P&ID and its backers will not get a penny. Instead, the court may ask them to pay our costs. It is already a good signal that a court allowed us to challenge the $6.6 billion (plus interests) award because of allegations of corruption in the contracting process. Tinubu must not cave in to these commission chasers. Greed.

 

AND FINALLY…

Mr Wale Adedayo, chairman of Ijebu East LGA, Ogun state, bluntly told Mr Dapo Abiodun, the governor, that the “emperor has not clothes”. He accused the governor of hijacking the funds meant for councils — a major obstacle to the proper functioning of the local government system in Nigeria. The emperor was very angry. Councillors from Ijebu East quickly visited the emperor with their tails between their legs, apologising for Adedayo’s misdemeanour, and wailing: “We are sorry sir! The emperor has clothes! The emperor is not naked!” Seven councillors proceeded to suspend Adedayo for three months over allegations of maladministration and financial mismanagement. Nigeria!

The Nigeria Police Force on Saturday said it is investigating a report of an alleged extortion of N620,000 by some men said to be police officers wearing Mufti along the Sanni Abacha road, GRA in Rivers State.

The Police Spokesperson, ACP Olumuyiwa Adejobi disclosed this while reacting to the complaints via his X, formerly Twitter, account.

Some men said to be officers of the Rivers State Police Command were reported to have accosted one Daniel at about 9 p.m. while he rode on an Uber.

The men, five in number, were said to have appeared in an all-black attire without name tags or a serial number for identification.

The brother of the victim, who reported the case via his X handle @smartninho narrated: “They seized his phone and went through it. They found nothing and went ahead to open all his bank apps and saw money in his accounts.

“They beat him up and put him in their Sienna. They kept beating him in the sienna with other boys they picked in a similar style. They did not allow him to communicate with his family or relatives.

“They drove them to a thick bush in Ogoni and continued to the border of Akwa Ibom. There they stopped and brought him out. They continued beating and threatening to shoot him if he didn’t transfer a huge amount to them.

“They started with a request for Twenty million Naira (N20m). They emptied his accounts, removing over Six hundred and twenty thousand Naira (N620k)”.

The post shared at 3: 38 p.m. on Saturday, gained traction after an independent journalist and influencer on the X App escalated the incident via his paid blue tick page.

The spokesperson of the police, Muyiwa while reacting said, “This will be looked into again. I am personally taking it up”.

He added, “I agree that we have recorded some cases against the men in Rivers Command, and we will address them all. I want to commend those who have been sending in their complaints. Justice will be done”.

The Rivers State Police command has come under fire in recent times following numerous complaints and claims from residents of brutality, indiscriminate extortion, high-handedness, unprofessionalism and public disobedience of police extant laws.

In April, three officers were captured assaulting a motorist in the state. The officers were seen slapping the victim repeatedly after beating him with a cane.

In a follow-up to Muyiwa’s reaction, the Nigeria Police Force also took to its official page to condemn the situation, pledging to take action if “guilt is proven”.

It said, “We take misconduct allegations seriously and are concerned about the reported incident. The welfare and safety of all citizens matter.

“An investigation is underway. Rest assured, action will be taken if guilt is proven. Thank you for bringing this to our notice”.