The Gabon military junta has announced the head of the Republican Guards, Colonel Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, as the new leader of the country after ending the 55-year rule of the Bongo family.

On Wednesday, August 30, the military announced that it had taken over power from Ali Bongo Ondimba, citing a degraded social atmosphere that, according to them, can lead to chaos in the future.

They also said the August 26 presidential election in the country was fraudulently conducted.

The country’s electoral commission had announced at midnight on Tuesday that incumbent, Ali Bongo, won 64.27% votes with the opposition candidate Ondo Ossa scoring 30%.

According to a report by Cameroon News Agency, Col. Nguema’s position as the leader of the Republican Guards was to protect the president.

The coup on Wednesday shows that the Gabonese military has had enough of the irregularities going on in the country.

In April 2020, Colonel Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema took over the head of the Republican Guard, an elite Army corps responsible for protecting the head of state, replacing General Grégoire Kouna, a cousin of Ali Bongo Ondimba.

Gambia has been ruled by the same family for more than 55 out of its 63 years since independence from France in 1960.

Bongo, 64, took over when his father Omar died in 2009 after nearly 42 years in power.

Bongo senior, who took office in 1967, had the reputation of a kleptocrat — one of the richest men in the world, with a fortune derived from Gabon’s oil wealth.

The event in Gabon comes a month after members of the Presidential Guards staged a coup against the then President of Niger Republic in West Africa, Mohammed Bazoum, and placed him under House arrest since then.

Ali Bongo Ondimba is also being placed under house arrest at The Residence, the official home of the Gabonese President, while his wife and son were being held in unknown locations.

The joint task force of Operation Delta Safe (OPDS) has arrested MV Ofuoma, an oil vessel, and 10 crew members conveying “illegally refined petroleum products” in Rivers state.

John Siyanbade, the component commander of the task force, said MV Ofuoma was arrested on August 15 at Abuloma jetty in Port Harcourt by the Nigerian Navy ship, Pathfinder.

Speaking at the site on behalf of Olusegun Ferreira, a rear admiral, Siyanbade said the vessel was used as a storage facility for illegally refined petroleum products.

“The vessel was receiving product suspected to be illegally refined AGO from a dugout wooden boat alongside it,” he said.

“As it was intercepted by OPDS, about 20,000 litres of the product have already been transferred from the dugout boat to the vessel. Currently, we have about 35,000 litres still remaining on board.

“The operation was conducted by troops of the JTF Operation Delta Safe Headquarters.”

Siyanbade said the 10 suspects intercepted comprise both the crew on board the vessel and those on the boat.

“The suspects have given credible information about where they source the product from; operation is ongoing to deactivate the illegal refining site in the area, and the operation will be for some time,” the commander said.

He added that the task force would not relent in its efforts to eradicate crude oil theft and other forms of illegality in the region.

Siyanbade advised individuals involved to seek legitimate means of livelihood before they are apprehended.

The Ogun State Government in collaboration with the National Primary Health Care Development Agency NPHCDA, has put necessary measures in place at ensuring effective health care delivery is available for the people of Intoji village, Orile-itesi community in Odeda Local Government Area of the state.

The facility which is fully funded by the NPHCDA will bring succour to the residents of the village and its environs, as all necessary equipment and machineries needed have been put in place.

Commissioner Designate, Ministry of Health, Dr. Tomi Coker revealed this during the commissioning of the newly built facility, saying that the government had put in place basic health care provision to run the facility.

Coker, in a statement made available to newsmen by Mrs. Fatimah Alatishe, Press Officer, PHCDB, further stated that health insurance will be provided for the venerable who would be registered at the center, saying that the facility will run 24hr services as government has provided nurses and resident doctor to attend to patients to ensure quality health care is provided.

Dr. Coker, while advising residents to make good use of the facility for proper care and management of their health, said "my plea is that people should come and make use of the facility, as the more we utilize it, the more resources will be drawn to the center, the vision of the governor is to bring quality and affordable health care to the doorstep of the people, so we are aligning with that".

In her welcome address, the Chairman, Odeda Local Government, Hon. Funmilayo Adeyemo, appreciated the State Government and the NPHCDA for the project, saying it would ease the health care access of the residents in the village, imploring the residents to make judicious use of the facility.

In their goodwill messages, the member representing Odeda State constituency at the state House of Assembly, Hon. Daisi Elemide, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Health, Dr Kayode Oladehinde, State coordinator, NPHCDA, Dr Victoria Adebiyi, and the Olu of Orile-itesi, Oba Adeniyi Emulu commended the State Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun for the re-appointment of the commissioner designate, and his efforts on delivering quality health care services, by bringing affordable and adequate healthcare to their doorstep.

 They appreciated Dr. Tomi Coker for facilitating the project to the community, saying that she has demonstrated a good indigeneship  of Odeda Local Government, urging the people to reciprocate the gesture by making good use of the facility by protecting and patronizing the PHC.

Responding on behalf of the community, Mr Adebayo Wasiu expressed their gratitude to the National Primary Health Care Agency, the state government and the commissioner designate for giving them such a massive facility to take care of their health needs, promising to put it to good use and protect it adequately.

Controversies have continued to trail Nigeria’s 4.1 per cent unemployment figure amid economic hardship occasioned by fuel subsidy removal and the foreign exchange crisis.

DAILY POST recalls that the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday last week disclosed in its recent Nigeria Labour Force Survey that the country’s unemployment rate is 5.6 per cent for Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent Q1 2023 using the revised International Labour Organization methodology.

The recent figure is coming after two years of being without unemployment figures. The last time the National Bureau of Statistics released labour data was in 2020, when it stood at 33.3 per cent.

In perspective, the 4.1 per cent unemployment rate means that only four of every 100 Nigerians are unemployed.

For some Nigerians, the figure ignited a utopic feeling because the 4.1 unemployment rate seems not to match reality.

Assessing NBS’ 4.1% unemployment rate

The announcement of a 4.1 per cent unemployment rate in Q1 2023 has been greeted with mixed reactions Nationwide.

The figure sharply contrasted with the last official data of 33.3 per cent for Q4 2020, disclosed in March 2021.

NBS explained that it arrived at the figure by adopting new International Labour Organization guidelines.

Accordingly, the report noted employed persons grew from 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 to 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023.

Meanwhile, the figure stated that Nigerians in paid employment dropped from 13.4 in Q4 2022 to 11.8 per cent in Q1 2023. Also, informal employment dropped from 93.5 per cent in Q4 2022 to 92.6 per cent in Q1 2023.

The NBS stressed that the difference between the old and new Methodology constitutes the term’ unemployment’. While the old Methodology says any population working below 20 hours or did not work but searching and available in the reference week, the new format sees unemployment as not being in employment, actively searching and available (did nothing for pay or profit).

However, many Nigerians, like the Director of the Institute of Capital Market Studies, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Prof Uche Uwaleke, said the new Methodology does not reflect Nigeria’s economic realities.

Uwaleke’s perspective resonates heavily with the proportion of Nigerians living below the poverty line.

A similar argument was advanced by the Director of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), Eze Onyekpere.

According to him, the unemployment reported rate is incongruent with the economic challenges a significant percentage of the population faces.

Also, Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, said the NBS needs to review the Methodology adopted for the report.

“It is difficult to accept the recently released unemployment report by the NBS.

“The Methodology needs to be reviewed to reflect our realities. 4.1 per cent unemployment rate in this part of the world is as good as full employment. Empirical evidence abounds of many young people, especially the educated ones, who practically have nothing to do.”

The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) 2022, released by NBS in November last year, showed that 133 million Nigerians are poor out of an estimated population of over 223 million.

Experts contend that the economic misery caused by the rising inflation, which stood at 24.08 per cent in July, the fuel subsidy removal hardship and the foreign exchange crisis, leaves much to be desired from the 4.1 per cent unemployment rate.

Figure not in tune with Nigeria’s reality – Experts

Speaking with DAILY POST, a popular economist and the former President and Chairman of the Council of Chartered Institute of Bankers, Prof Segun Ajibola said the new Methodology used by NBS is irrelevant to Nigeria.

According to him, combating poverty is critical to employment.

He said the NBS playing around with figures of the unemployment rate will not solve the problem of poverty in Nigeria.

“Economists look at unemployment in different ways, about eight different types, but usually when the subject matter comes up, most people think of open unemployment, those who are not engaged at all.

“Unless the figure is attached to a specific aspect of unemployment, the figure will be misleading. At times, you have complications in discussing unemployment.

“But generally, unemployment has some attachment to poverty. It is believed you are employed if you are fully engaged and earning a living wage. So, if you are fully engaged and still do not earn a living wage, you will still suffer from poverty.

“The new Methodology by ILO is not relevant to us in this part of the world. What is important to us is for labour to be fully skilled to earn a living wage.

“If you look at our environment, can you say out of 100 Nigerians, only four are unemployed? Playing around with figures will not solve the problem of poverty”, he stated.

Also, Idakolo Gbolade, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, said the technique used by NBS to arrive at the 4.1 unemployment rate in Q1 2023 is likened to living in a fool’s paradise.

He noted that the figure is not in tune with reality.

Gbolade said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu needs to ensure that various policies towards reviving Nigeria’s economy are properly implemented.

“The new technique NBS uses is like living in a fool’s paradise. This is not in tune with reality when statistics clearly show the poverty rate is about 70 per cent. The poverty rate is directly proportional to unemployment, so the statistics used to arrive at the Q1 2023 unemployment figure are unrealistic.

“The 4.1 per cent unemployment rate is a good place for Nigeria; however, a lot needs to be done in key sectors of our economy like agriculture, energy, manufacturing and SMEs to create an enabling environment for employment opportunities for our teeming youth.

“The Bola Tinubu government needs to ensure that various policies announced in the agricultural sector, manufacturing and SMEs are properly implemented to lift our economy”, he stated.

In contrast, an accounting and financial development Don at Lead City University, Ibadan, Prof Godwin Oyedokun, said there is no need to disbelieve the unemployment figure.

“If we can believe the inflation data, we just believe this because they use the same system. The real unemployment in Nigeria is not as we often define it.

“You are employed as long as you are engaged by making a profit or wage. The fuel subsidy removal did not lead to unemployment but shrunk the purchasing power of Nigeria.

“The euphoria of fuel subsidy removal may not be as claimed because many Nigerians continue their economic activities. People will rather adjust their consumption patterns. Unemployment and poverty differ, but one can lead to the other,” he said.

[DailyPost]

The coup in Gabon is fueling a modest increase in the prices of crude oil due to seemingly threats to exports from the country which produces about 200,000 barrels a day (bpd) of crude oil, making it the second-smallest OPEC producer.

Earlier on August 30, a cohort of senior military officers declared that they had assumed control following the announcement by the state election body that President Ali Bongo, had secured a third term. Note that Bongo’s Father had ruled as president before him for 42 years.

According to a report by Wall Street Journal, since Gabon’s coup announcement, global crude oil prices have seen a modest increase due to seeming threats to exports from the country.

“The coup and the threat of disruptions to Gabon’s oil exports are supporting oil prices, but only modestly as the nation is a minor OPEC oil producer, DNB Markets analyst Helge Andre Martinsen says. Brent crude oil is up 0.3 per cent at $85.19 a barrel.

“The nation’s output stands at a modest 190,000 barrels a day, but it has been the only African OPEC member to hit its production quotas. So far, there has been no sign of disruption to Gabon’s oil output. Still, the coup serves as a reminder of the geopolitical risk in the oil market, Martinsen says.”

It is important to note that as of 12:50 PM (GMT+1) on Wednesday, August 30, Brent crude price was at $86 per barrel.

The Gabon coup is raising supply concerns alongside Hurricane Idalia in the United States, which has raised oil supply concerns as well.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Amena Bakr, OPEC’s chief correspondent posted on Twitter that so far, it appears that oil production from fields in Gabon is not affected by the military coup.

Similarly, Assala Energy, which is wholly owned by Carlyle Group (CG.O), said its oil production in Gabon has been unaffected by the military coup in the country.

“We can confirm that all our personnel are safe, our operations continue as usual and our production is not affected,” a company spokesperson said.

The private equity fund’s non-U.S. energy arm first invested in Assala in 2017 when it acquired Shell’s (SHEL.L) ageing operations in Gabon for $628 million.

However, earlier this month, Carlyle agreed to sell Assala to French producer Maurel & Prom (MAUP.PA), which owns and operates oil and gas assets in Africa, Europe and Latin America, including three licences in Gabon, for $730 million.

[NationalDaily]

The United States Presidential Precinct has appointed Toyosi Ogunseye as its new president and chief executive officer (CEO).

Ogunseye, who is the second president and CEO of the organisation, takes over from Neal Piper, the founding director.

Jim Murray, the organisation’s founder and board chair, said Ogunseye’s appointment will guarantee a bright future for the Precinct.

“Toyosi’s experience combined with partnerships and resources that we have established over the past ten years will guarantee a bright future at the Precinct,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.

“We began this search process by looking far and wide; little did we know that after six months of exhaustive outreach and networking, one of our own would be stepping in to lead.

“I am grateful for Toyosi’s longstanding commitment to the Precinct. We have much to look forward to.”

Commenting on her appointment, Ogunseye, who was a 2014 Mandela Washington Fellow, said she is honoured to lead an organisation that opened its doors to her nine years ago.

“I’m honoured to have this opportunity to lead such an impactful organization 9 years after I first walked through its doors,” she said.

“I look forward to innovative collaborations with our staff, Board, program alumni, and community partners in Williamsburg and Charlottesville.

“Working together, we will expand and elevate tools and resources that have distinguished the Presidential Precinct as a transformative public diplomacy organisation.”

Ogunseye has two decades of leadership experience in journalism, most recently serving as a senior news editor for news and commissioning at the BBC.

Prior to joining BBC, Ogunseye was the first female editor in the 50-year history of Punch Newspaper.

Ogunseye, who recently concluded her term as vice-president of the World Editors Forum, is a board member of the World Association of News Publishers.

[TheCable]

Since the National Bureau of Statistics published figures that put the unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent, they have faced sweltering criticisms. Earlier in April, they announced they were changing the metrics used in calculating the unemployment rate in the country to align with the International Labour Organisation guidelines. Since last Thursday when they released a jobs report that revised the unemployment rate (previously calculated at 33.3 per cent as at Q4 2020) to 4.1 per cent for (Q4 2022 and Q1 2023), they have been criticised for asserting that the Nigerian unemployment figures are at par with some of the most developed countries/diverse economies. Without any evidence to substantiate such assertion, the NBS go explain the wizardry of their numbers taya!

That no one exactly celebrated the progress the NBS reports is understandable. A healthy amount of scepticism must greet a 4.1 per cent unemployment rate announcement. Anywhere in the world, figures are considered political. Contrary to received wisdom that numbers objectively assess reality, they can, in fact, mythify. In the hands of unscrupulous politicians, they bestow a patina of legitimacy upon lies.

For Nigeria where politicians solicit empiricists to use their scientific tools to produce a truth that will find no feet to stand on the grounds of reality, the former Statistician-General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, must have faced a lot of pressure when he headed the NBS and published figures that directly refuted the propaganda of the previous administration. And that is why any statistics emanating from the agency that can be deviously seized on by a non-performing government, will be scrutinised for traces of chicanery.

Now, despite the fuzziness of their statistics, I will give it to the NBS that they at least explained that what has changed is not the reality of Nigerian unemployment but simply the measuring rule. They stated that the lower unemployment figures are not based on government performance but mere standardisation of the definition of unemployment to conform to international standards. According to them, under the old mensuration system, they categorised ‘unemployed’ as anyone of working age who worked below 20 hours, or did not work, but searched and was available for work during the week of the survey. Under the new calculus, what counts as being “employed” is to work for pay/profit for just an hour within the week of the survey. They said the new marker aligns with “international best practices.”

Well, this is one of those instances where “international” and “best practices” are mutually exclusive because the NBS re-categorisation is problematic on several levels. As Kale said when interviewed on Arise’s Global Business Report on Monday, while he was at the NBS, the committee in charge of reviewing the minimum number of work hours thought such a counting measure does not make sense in Nigeria because the income generated within that time frame was not necessarily livable. On that score, I hundred per cent agree. Nigeria should not have adopted that rule because it merely distorts the truth of our local situation. In some other countries, doing the bare minimum at least qualifies you for social/welfare benefits, but what does it mean in Nigeria?

Conforming to international standards must not come at the expense of accurately discerning the truth of your situation. Figures should clarify reality, not occlude it. Facts are important, but they are also manipulable. Numbers can be twisted by the neck until they tell a story you need them to tell. One can arrive at a 100 per cent employment rate in Nigeria if we expand the definition of what constitutes “work” until it includes the time we spend volunteering in religious houses (in expectation of spiritual blessings), or even soliciting “urgent 2k” on social media. Virtually everyone will be classified as “occupied” even though that will not make what they do an occupation in the real sense of it.

That said, the other important point made by the NBS boss, Semiu Adeniran, but which was overshadowed by the controversial figures, is that Nigeria’s problem is not so much unemployment but of underemployment. He explained that the underemployment rate stood at 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023 making it a much bigger issue. While we can take issues with the metrics used to calculate “unemployed,” his point is instructive and should not be lost in the melee of arguing whether the unemployment rate is 4 or 40 per cent.

In Nigeria, the opposite of “unemployment” might not be “employment” but underemployment. Our trouble is that people are working and doing so ungainfully. Where I vehemently depart from Adeniran is his definition of underemployment as a situation “whereby persons engaged in one activity or the other yet indicate interest and availability to take on more work, due to inadequacy of the jobs they are engaged in at the time.” Classifying underemployment in Nigeria that way is rather unhelpful. People already labouring under the yoke of a non-regenerative economy cannot transmute their under-employment to employment even if they worked 24/7. The reprieve they need will come from doing quality work, not simply more of the same.

Unemployment is underutilisation of skills, not an issue of mere work hours. In Nigeria, the problem of underemployment presents itself as an internal brain drain. We talk a lot about people’s leaving the country as depriving us of the best brains but there is an ongoing internal crisis as well. People trained in professional skills have had—to stave off the biting reality of unemployment—to take on jobs mismatched with their skill set. In many cases, they get trapped in those lowly jobs and ultimately fritter away the skills they acquired in the university or polytechnic.

There are millions of young Nigerians who also formally passed through an apprenticeship in one vocational training or the other but have been retarded because they cannot come up with the capital necessary to set up shop. Lots of them like that have had to abjure their training and take on Okada/Marwa riding, street hawking, or even running a gambling store. Some veered, hoping to save enough money to buy—in many cases—the imported machines they need to set themselves up, but the increasing foreign exchange recedes their plans right before their eyes. So many of them like that, frittering away the prime of their lives doing work that neither improves their skill set nor guarantees a future. Yet, under the new rule of the NBS, all those people will be classified as “employed.” In the real sense of the word, they are not.

Finally, one of the most interesting aspects of the NBS report is their response to criticism, especially the one that came from Kale. Their retort was far more telling of the intellectual disposition of the agency than all the figures Adeniran reeled out.

The PR boss, Wakili Ibrahim, undercut the integrity of the agency by making snide comments at Kale, an attitude that suggests that their whole revision of standards is a personal affront to the ex-boss they despise, not because Nigeria needs such clarity. Also, Ibrahim’s understanding of how “work” works was so limited that it put a question mark around their job report. In clarifying that the new calibration system factored in the changing nature of work, Ibrahim said, “Look at lecturers; a lecturer can go lecture for one or two hours, and they will pay him about N200,000 or N300, 000 in one or two hours. So, what is the basis of ignoring those ones?”

Well, as a lecturer, I can tell him—for free—that when we lecture for two hours, we spend up to 10 hours on preparation. That makes at least 12 hours of work. If the NBS does not have that basic clarity, why should we trust the figures they generate?

The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has dared his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, to expel him.

Speaking on the possibility of getting expelled from the PDP for anti-party activities, Wike dared those contemplating the move saying, “Nobody can expel me.”

Wike stated this Wednesday evening when he featured on Channels Television’s programme, “Politics Today.”

The immediate-past governor of Rivers State stressed that he had yet to see any leader in the PDP who had the authority to expel him from the party.

“The person who will suspend me is when I couldn’t produce a governor, three senators, Assembly members. I have not seen that person. Nobody will do it,” Wike said.

“Who will discipline me? I should be the one calling for the discipline of these people who violated the party constitution,” the minister added.

He continued, “The way that the party said there must be rotation and you violated the constitution of the party. Who dares say that they will suspend me? Who is that person? I want to dare anybody who will say that.”

He also said he was working for President Bola Tinubu and not the All Progressives Congress, stressing that he owed nobody any apology.

“I am not working for the APC. I am working for Tinubu who has trust in me to help him deliver the Renewed Hope,” adding, “I owe nobody any apology at all. I was in the PDP and I worked for Ahmed Bola Tinubu to become the President of Nigeria.”

The FCT minister also said the Abuja Metro Line was expected to be ready within the next eight months, adding that his administration would restore the FCT masterplan without minding whose ox is gored, saying the wealthy ones in the FCT are the lawbreakers.

“The Abuja metro line would be ready within the next eight months,” the minister said, adding, “Today in this country, who are the major lawbreakers? Is there any poor man who is doing something to distort the master plan of the FCT? Is there any poor man living in Asokoro, that is living in Maitama or Garki? So, what are we talking about?”

[Punch]

When I woke up yesterday to news of a military coup in Gabon, I concluded there must be a better way to earn a living than peddling opinions on the pages of newspapers. We were still coming to terms with developments in Niger Republic where military adventurers are digging in when we learned of the overthrow of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. While circumstances of the two countries might be different, we are dealing with the same institutional challenge. This prompts me to ask, what else is there to write about this epidemic of coups on the continent? Bongo, by the way, first came to power in 2009, following the death of his father, El Hadj Omar Bongo Ondimba, who ruled the country for 42 years. Last Saturday, he was declared elected for a third term after a controversial presidential election now annulled by the coupists who have also dissolved “all the institutions of the republic.”

Rich in natural resources such as diamonds, gold, petroleum, natural gas, niobium, cement, phosphate rock, manganese, uranium, and iron ore, Gabon has a GDP per capita of $12,800 (that of Nigeria is $2,184). But that doesn’t tell the complete story of a country whose wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few. In October 2018, President Bongo suffered a stroke while in Saudi Arabia on official duty. Although he had a prolonged medical treatment in the United Kingdom before another long session of recuperation in Morocco, Bongo’s poor health has left him and Gabon at the mercy of power mongers Nigerians would describe as a ‘cabal’. In February last year when Bongo attended the African Union – European Union summit in Brussels, he was supported by two aides as he struggled to move from his car to the conference hall, even with the aid of a walking stick.

Yesterday, as I watched the pathetic video of Bongo on wheelchair, pleading “with friends all over the world to make noise” on his behalf, because he didn’t know what was going on in his country, I could not but reflect on the transient nature of power. Sadly, that reality is lost on African leaders who hardly learn from the experience of others. When President Umaro Cissoko Embaló of Guinea Bissau survived what he described as a ‘failed attack against democracy’ last year, I wrote ‘Nigeria and the Coup Epidemics’ to highlight what should concern authorities in Nigeria. Before then, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Sudan, and Chad had fallen into the hands of military usurpers, confirming the long-held proposition that democracy may be too frail a plant to survive the harsh climate in a continent where the opulence of politicians, economic deprivation of citizens and worsening insecurity now combine to present clear warning signals.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we were told yesterday, is already in consultation with other African leaders on the appropriate response “to contagious autocracy we have seen spread across the continent.” That is welcome, given that we are dealing with the same problems in many of the African countries: Weak institutions, distrust of politicians, growing insecurity aided by insurgency and a worsening economic condition for most of the people. But is the military a solution to these problems? I don’t think so, even when we cannot blame the Gabonese who trooped out in celebration after enduring the rule of one family for 55 years. Following incessant coups in Bangladesh, The Economist wrote in December 2005 what I found most instructive. “Like all human follies, military coups sound good at the time; and always fail,” according to the respected British weekly magazine. “They sound good because what they replace is usually bad: riotous civilian leaders, corrupted institutions, stolen elections. They fail because beneath the chaos are political problems that soldiers cannot unpick…” 

After the initial euphoria, the reality usually sinks in, as it is already happening in Niger Republic (as well as in Mali and Burkina Faso), that soldiers have no magic wand for dealing with complex socio-economic problems. But lest I get ahead of myself, this is no time to talk about military coups. In any case, we have too many problems at home to worry about what is happening outside our shores. On Monday, I read the familiar lamentation from the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, that Nigeria is still losing about 400,000 barrels of oil daily to oil theft. 

In the past two decades, I have written dozens of columns about oil theft in Nigeria, and I don’t know what new thing to say about this vexatious organised crime. What I have found most interesting is that for more than 20 years the same figure of 400,000 barrels per day is being parroted by government officials as being stolen in Nigeria. That is perhaps because it is all guesswork, which is also understandable. “Information about Africa’s biggest oil industry is an opaque myriad of numbers. No one knows which ones are accurate; no one knows how much oil Nigeria actually produces,” according to The Economist in its 10^th October 2013 report on the mismanagement of the oil and gas sector in Nigeria. “If there were an authoritative figure, the truly horrifying scope of corruption would be exposed.”  

We are dealing with cartels that have tentacles and networks in all the critical institutions that matter. In August 2014, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the United States government had launched investigation into crude oil shipments from Saltpond platform, an oil facility off the coast of Ghana, that was shipping large quantities of crude from unknown sources to Europe and was uncovered during a broader enquiry into how stolen oil from Nigeria was being sold to some international cartels. According to the WSJ report, a Saltpond official reportedly testified that huge volumes of stolen crude were procured from some Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) officials. The defence from the EFCC at the time was that it “is not an oil marketing company and could not have issued any invoice to any oil trader to lift confiscated crude oil from Nigeria.” 

Five years later in a 5th June 2019 report titled, ‘Nigeria’s Oil Thieves Roar Back as Militants Kept in Check’, Bloomberg stated that “Oil theft is now an industry employing thousands in Nigeria.” What Bloomberg perhaps forgot to add is that the Nigerian oil thieves have also learnt the tricks from the ubiquitous ‘ghost workers’ who take a huge chunk of our annual wealth without ever being caught. Incidentally, just a month after that report, the Nigeria Natural Resource Charter (NNRC) revealed that our country lost a whopping N1.6 trillion to oil theft in 2016 and N995 billion in 2017. 

I don’t think we are ready to tackle the challenge of oil theft in Nigeria if all that every administration does is to lament and tout figures of what we lose. But since I am already beginning to sound like a broken gramophone on this issue, let me look for something else to write about today. Okay, there is a controversy about whether someone can be a National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) member and that of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) at the same time. I am aware that Nigerians are very good at ‘multi-tasking’ but even at that, it is novel combining being ‘Ajuwaya’ and a minister of the federal republic with an important portfolio. Unfortunately, we have also been on this road before. Under the last administration of President Buhari, we had cases of two NYSC dodgers in his cabinet, although they eventually lost their jobs. As I wrote at the time, when a government bend rules to excuse those who ordinarily should be held to the highest standards, it is society that suffers.  

The subversion of the NYSC ideals has been gradual for years. Established in 1973 by General Yakubu Gowon as a vehicle for national integration after the civil war, it is shocking that only 5.7 million Nigerians have been mobilised in 50 years for a scheme that accommodates all graduates of Universities, Polytechnics and Colleges of Education. The only plausible explanation for such a figure is that many evade the scheme. But there are positive stories too. A prominent Nigerian decided to be mobilized for the NYSC scheme, even though older than 30 at the time. He was posted to Yobe and eventually completed his service in Abuja. After his NYSC primary assignment, he contested for senate and won. In 2015, Gerard Igyor, a respected Professor of Communication and Theatre (then at the University of Wisconsin but now at Millersville University, Pennsylvania, United States) took a one-year sabbatical to come home (Benue State) for his NYSC primary assignment, teaching at the state-owned university. That was because he had his first degree before the age of 30. He returned to the United States after completing the NYSC primary assignment.

In contrast, many politicians now believe they can hide behind technicalities to cover what is clearly a crime. Some of the people who had in the past paraded all manner of degrees are reportedly limiting themselves to presenting only their West African School Certificate (WASC) or equivalent in the forms submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). For ministerial clearance, some adopt the same trick because they did not serve their fatherland ‘under the sun or in the rain’ like the rest of us, as stipulated by law. And they believe they can eat their cake and still have it.

Meanwhile, as it was in the past, the question being raised by the current NYSC saga is the credibility of the so-called pre-appointment screening by security agencies. The bigger issue is the reckless manner by which the Senate conducts the confirmation hearing that has become another hollow ritual. But then, having decided I would not be repeating myself today, let me leave the NYSC matter alone and look for something else to write on. In the next four days, according to the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, Betta Edu, we should expect a deluge from Cameroon where the Lagdo dam has been opened to discharge water downstream. This is also not a new issue.  

Last October, I wrote ‘200 Billion Cubic Metres of Disaster’ following the deluge that claimed 612 lives with 2,776 persons injured and 305,407 houses destroyed. In that tragedy from which many have not recovered, 392,399 hectares of farmland were decimated and an additional 176,852 hectares partially damaged. To write my column, I spoke to the Director General of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), Clement Eze who told me that Nigeria has one of the best natural drainage systems in the world due to our topography, land and location within the Niger Basin that traverses nine countries in West and Central Africa. On an annual basis, according to Nze, a total volume of over 200 billion cubic metres of fresh water drains into the Atlantic Ocean—huge resource from nature that we practically allow to waste. 

I also spoke with Dr Matthew Offodile, a consultant exploration hydrogeologist and Managing Director of Mecon Geology and Engineering Services, Jos who is regarded as one of the foremost experts on the issue of flooding in Nigeria. He shared insights on the huge amount of water from the Lagdo Dam that has become a menace to Nigeria. To Offodile, the Cameroonian authorities are doing what they are supposed to do to avoid an even greater catastrophe. “But on our part, we do nothing to mitigate the downriver effect. We have suggested that a practical solution would be to create a dam on the upper arm of the Benue River around Yola (Adamawa State capital) to divert part of the surplus water northwards into the large area of the Chad Basin through River Yedsaram”, he said. “The large excess volume of water would serve the dual purpose of not only irrigating the large expanse of the Chad basin land but possibly refill the Lake Alo and may be extend to Lake Chad itself. This will be a purely Nigerian project which unlike the transfer from the Congo basin being suggested in some quarters, is devoid of all international encumbrances of the neighbouring countries.”    

In the column under reference, I highlighted the suggestions by Offodile on what we need to do to turn the water from Lagdo Dam into opportunities. But who pays attention to these things? “Unless Nigeria embarks on these major structural developments, all efforts at our annual rituals at river gauge measurements and forecasts will be postponing the evil day and in vain,” the octogenarian told me last October. Since I don’t know what I can possibly add to that, its better I join the prayers that God should have mercy on us as the water from Lagdo Dam in Cameroon begins to flow in.  

Although I have elected not to write today, it may be important for the African Union (AU) leadership to pay closer attention to Cameroon, given what just happened in Gabon. Paul Biya, who clocked 90 in February this year, was Prime Minister from 1975 to 1982 when he became President and has been in power ever since. Although Biya spends most of the time in the luxurious Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, Switzerland and is almost always out of circulation when in Cameroon due to ill-health combined with old age, he still calls all the shots through surrogates. That explains why his supporters are already preparing for the 2025 presidential election when Biya is expected to be on the ballot again! 

Still on Gabon, let me rehash the conclusion of my column ten years ago after the coup that brought General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to power in Egypt: “…All said, what happened in Cairo is a good warning to the powers-that-be at home that we cannot assume indefinite immunity against the things that provoke outrage in other countries. Tahrir Square is perhaps nearer than we may be ready to concede as our people can see around them the combination of factors that are fuelling protests from Rio to Cairo. Worse still, our population distribution in favour of young people makes us prone to impatient revolt. Nobody should therefore be under any illusion that the tide of violent rejection of substandard governance blowing across the world will elude us simply because ‘this is Nigeria’. Those who have ears…” 

To all my readers, I tender my unreserved apologies for not writing this week. By the grace of God, this column will resume next week. 

H.E. President Bola Tinubu is watching developments unfolding in Gabon very closely and with deep concern for the country’s socio-political stability and the seeming autocratic contagion appearing to spread to other parts of the African continent.

The President, as a man who has made significant personal sacrifices in his own life for the cause of advancing and defending democracy, remains steadfast in his unwavering belief that power belongs in the hands of Africa’s great people and not in the barrel of a loaded gun.

The President affirms that the rule of law and a faithful recourse to constitutional instruments of electoral dispute resolution must not be allowed to perish from our great continent.

To this end, the President will continue to communicate with other Heads of State within the African Union and beyond toward a comprehensive consensus on the next steps forward.

Chief Ajuri Ngelale

Special Adviser to the President

(Media & Publicity)