The Federal Government’s expenditure exceeded revenue by N1.43tn in the first three months of 2023, according to figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The CBN revealed in its economic report for the third quarter of 2023 obtained by The PUNCH on Friday that this was 9.6 per cent higher than the last quarter of 2022 figure.

It stated, “The fiscal operations of the FGN in 2023, Q1, resulted in a deficit. At N1.43tn, the provisional fiscal deficit of the FGN was 9.6 per cent higher than the level in the preceding quarter but 22.1 per cent below the target.”

According to the report, the fiscal performance in 2023, Q1 was impaired by low oil revenue realisation. Consequently, the retained revenue of the FGN fell by 10.7 per cent, relative to 2022, Q4, and was 46.1 per cent below the quarterly target.

FGN’s aggregate expenditure also declined by 1.3 and 36.0 per cent, relative to the preceding quarter and the quarterly target, respectively.

It said, “Thus, the FGN overall deficit widened relative to 2022, Q4, but narrowed by 22.1 per cent when compared with the proportionate budget. Consolidated public debt, as at end-December 2022, stood at N46.25tn (or 22.8 per cent of GDP).

At N3.48tn, the CBN report said, gross federation revenue fell below the levels in 2022, Q4 and the budget benchmark by 0.4 and 26.6 per cent, respectively.

Non-oil revenue continued to dominate government revenue, accounting for 61.4 per cent, while oil receipts accounted for 38.6 per cent.

Oil revenue, at N1.34tn, declined by 3.0 and 43.5 per cent, relative to 2022, Q4 and quarterly target. The performance was indicative of revenue shortfalls from petroleum profit tax and royalties, following lower domestic crude production.

“Conversely, non-oil receipts, at N2.14n, improved against the preceding quarter by 1.2 per cent, but was 9.6 per cent below the quarterly target of N2.37tn,” the report said.

[Punch]

Two recent military coups in neighbouring Niger and Gabon have heightened discussions in Nigeria of the possibility of military intervention in the politics of the nation. The feeling appears so palpable considering the commonality of causative factors whichover the years always influenced military rule in Africa: societal restiveness, poor economy, failed elections, pervasive corruption, extravagance of politicians and the helplessness of civic society accentuated by the disappearance of the middle class.

In Nigeria, the division of society into two classes only; that is those who have everything and those who have nothing is more visibly felt than anywhere else. This has left many people to pray not just for something to change but for it to come through the efficacy of a military coup. The recent decision of the military hierarchy in Nigeria to formally dismiss such undemocratic undertones in the land is instructive.

Democracy is no doubt acclaimed world-wide as the best form of government, but then democracy is not a matter for claims. Rather, it is a system of government which is based on freedom and the politics of equality. Its features are not only sacred; they are offensive when adulterated. There are 5 such critical features, namely: the sovereignty of the people, the rule of law, free and fair elections, majority rule and the protection of minority rights. To qualify as a democracy therefore, the sovereignty of the people on whose behalf government functions is not negotiable. It is the people who matter and not the government. A democratic country in which everyone is equal before the law, cannot allow certain privileged citizens to use law enforcement agencies to detain their opponents or critics without trial. To manipulate an election process for losers to become winners nullifies real majority rule just as democracy as a game of numbers is contingent upon the protection of minority rights.

What the above featuressuggest is that those who are anxious to prevent military coups in Nigeria must first endeavour to make Nigeria a democracy. It is erroneous to continue to argue that the worst form of democracy is better than the most benevolent military rule because there is no difference between military rule and civilian rule or fake democracy. Those who argue that soldiers who shoot their way into government were not elected by the people must be fair enough to agree that those who come into office through the manipulation of the votes of citizens were also not elected by the people. Soldiers in government are not accountable to the people because they were not elected by the people. Similarly, election riggers in government only mouth service to the people; rather than serve, they amass wealth in readiness for the manipulation of the next set of elections. It is therefore undemocratic to have elections that are neither free nor fair.

In truth, Nigerian politicians do not believe in hitch-free elections. They prefer to devote all their energies towards circumventing electoral laws and guidelines. Although the constitution provides for an electoral body made up of persons who are transparently non-partisan, many electoral officials in Nigeria are card carrying members of the ruling party. By so doing, some players in the game of election are also referees in the same game. Again, our constitution provides for a democratically elected system of local government, yet our governors always ensure that government at that local level is run by caretaker committees made up of party members. Where local government elections are organized, the state electoral bodies are directed to ensure the election of all chairmen and councillors of the ruling party.  The goal is to divert public resources accruing to them at that level from the federation account to the personal use of governors and their parties.

In a democracy, everything is scheduled. For example, after electioneering comes governance. In Nigeria’s democracy, every time is for electioneering. As soon as one election ends, electioneering begins for the next election due in 4 years. Already, state governors who came into office a few months ago are currently busy leading the campaign teams in other states whose elections are holding soon. When will such governors govern their states? Why can’t such governors concentrate on governance while their party officials use the party machinery for the current campaigns? In Edo State, for instance, governorship elections are holding not this year but next year, yet the matter of the moment in that state is the number of governorship aspirants that are already engaged in open campaigns. If Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa with nearby governorship elections are doing nothing else but electioneering, should that also be the fate of others such as Edo whose elections are not immediately around the corner?

The result of our culture of “electioneering without end” is poor governance which makes it virtually impossible for the living standards of the ordinary people to improve. Nigeria’s electioneering is not only long and capital intensive; it is also bastardized. To start with, incumbents are busy placing hurdles in the way of their opponents during campaigns. This short-changes the electorate because state facilities do not belong to a ruling political party; they belong to the people and ought to be used for public enlightenment. Level playing field which guarantees the politics of equality is distorted when opposition parties are precluded from using public facilities such as stadium or any other platform. Indeed, state media outfits are propelled to shut their gates to opposition political parties in breach of the electoral law which directs the public media to provide equal time for all.

Poor governance in society frustrates all and sundry such that aggrieved soldiers think of nothing but coups while traumatized citizens troop out to rejoice and embrace military intervention in politics. To prevent Africa’s wind of coups from blowing towards Nigeria, so much has to be done to keep the society on good footing. First, it is necessary to draw a fine line between electioneering and governance. A presidential or governorship candidate has to be loyal to his party but when he becomes president or governor, his oath of office demands that his loyalty shifts to the general public. The trend in Nigeria in which members of the ruling party want to constitute government alone is parochial. In the last few days some APC members had openly condemned the appointment of a non-party member into a newly constituted board. The posture works against inclusivity as the office-holder was not elected by members of only one party.

Monopoly which members of a ruling party seek to exercise over government is particularly dangerous as it has capacity to swell up the numerical strength of ordinary people who feel aggrieved against government.  It is in fact offensive for a government to allow itself to be seen as not belonging to all. Some non-partisan citizens especially notable technocrats must be included in any government that intends to succeed in developing society. After all, the most effective members of successive governments in Nigeria were sourced on the basis of their track records of service and not because they were card-carrying members of the ruling party. Except government follows such well tested pattern of leadership recruitment, conducive environment would be created for civil society groups to distract government with criticisms only.

It is also important for government to depoliticise the security agencies as well as the military. Ironically, those who went to court in the past against the use of the military in our elections have since 2015 consolidated the same anomaly. But when it is convenient it is said that the military must not intervene in politics. There is the urgent need to equip the forces appropriately and give them attractive conditions of service. The new National Security Adviser has reportedly begun moves to reposition the police to take full charge of internal security. It is hoped that he would also sensitize them to recognise that in a democracy, public protests are allowed and not teargassed. It is also hoped that the common practice of supersession among our uniform forces would be checked. If not, those who are superseded or compulsorily retired to pave way for their chosen juniors to take control of the forces will join the army of aggrieved citizens especially the massive unemployed youths to canvass, urge and pray for military coups. 

It is a difficult time to be a Nigerian. Living in a Hobbesian fictional world, where everything seems nasty, brutish and short, particularly in the turbulent eight years of Muhammadu Buhari’s reign; nothing has changed for Nigerians in the past three months.

President Bola Tinubu whose leadership Nigerians expected to birth a new lease of life, wasted no time in making the situation worse for them following the removal of subsidy from Premium Motor Spirit. Since June when the Commander-in-Chief announced subsidy removal, things have not been the same for Nigerians, many of whom now lament openly the pitiable conditions under which they live.

However, there is hope on the horizon that things are likely to change for good with the recent inauguration of the Federal Executive Council by the President. This optimism derives in part from the pledged commitment of the first citizen to make a difference in the lives of Nigerians, having admitted recently that the past few years have been difficult for the people.

The new ministers are expected to hit the ground running but how fast remains a matter of conjecture. For a President desirous of turning around the fortunes of a nation whose potentials have been dwarfed by decades of poor planning and policy somersault; critical sectors of the economy must be allowed to breathe without difficulty.

While in the saddle, Buhari placed Nigeria on the global map for the wrong reasons. From having the highest number of out-of-school children estimated conservatively at over 10 million to being the world capital of poverty, Africa’s largest country became a consistent symbol of jokes around the world.

He came on a three-point agenda namely, fight against insecurity, revival of the economy and war against corruption but at the time of exit, Buhari had left the world and millions of his supporters disappointed as none of the cardinal programmes of his administration came close to witnessing even a marginal improvement since he took over the reins of governance in 2015. Across the land, gunmen boasting their connection in high places killed for fun even as they had a field day breaking into correctional facilities to free their members arrested previously by security agencies. 

The economy suffocated from a combination of ills, including fiscal indiscipline, monetary policy somersault, and low productivity to mention but a few. All these, according to President Tinubu, will soon give way to a more robust economy where the naira would appreciate in value side by side with other currencies in the world. Perhaps, there is a reason to be hopeful.

The cabinet turned out not exactly what Nigerians expected, yet, the inclusion of the likes of Bosun Tijani, Muhammed Pate and Wale Edun as well as a handful of others is enough to look forward to greater things in the months ahead but for Nigeria to stand a chance of living true to her potentials, critical sectors of the economy must witness significant turnaround as quickly as possible.

Judiciary

For the better part of the immediate past administration, the rule of law was constantly in focus for the wrong reasons. Court orders not favourable to the Federal Government were sometimes ignored without a thought for posterity.

The disobedience of court order against the continued trial of former Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen, and flagrant refusal to obey court orders for the release of Ibrahim El-zakzaky, leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria and Nnamdi Kanu readily come to mind.

Thus, President Tinubu will do himself a world of good by giving the judicial arm of government the respect it deserves, for in the words of Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Mike Ozekhome, much is expected from the judiciary if Nigeria must win back her status as one of the leading black nations on earth.

To attain this feat, the country needs “Massive law reforms, digitalisation of the entire court processes and practices, immediate enhancement of judges conditions of service, including salaries, emoluments, annual travels, medical care, local and foreign seminars, workshops, conferences and a guaranteed house to retire to.”

Security

Nigeria witnessed one of her most challenging times under Buhari following the escalation of killings, kidnapping for ransom, and terrorism in different parts of the country. Despite his military background, Buhari had no solution to the deadly campaigns by terrorists who even embarrassed him on more than one occasion in his ancestral home of Daura, Katsina State.

In many instances, Katsina State witnessed attacks from terrorists with Buhari in town; an indication that they were neither scared nor believed that the then President had what it takes to address the security situation.

Like Buhari, Tinubu’s administration has started off on a bad note. With barely three months in the saddle, the former Lagos State Governor’s ability to secure the nation is currently a subject of debate. A fortnight ago, three officers and 22 soldiers died in Zungeru, Niger State, when gunmen laid ambush.

“Troops, while conducting offensive operations around Kundu general area in Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State, got into an ambush. Following a firefight, three officers and 22 soldiers were killed in action, while seven soldiers were wounded.

“Subsequently, the NAF MI-171 helicopter was dispatched to evacuate the casualties. While outbound to Kaduna, the helicopter crashed with the corpses of the 14 personnel earlier killed in action, seven of the personnel were wounded in action, while two pilots and two crew members of the helicopter also died.

“Operations are ongoing to recover the bodies and investigate the cause of the air crash, which will be communicated. Surely, no group will strike its own troops with impunity,” the Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Edward Buba, told journalists at a briefing on the tragedy. 

President Tinubu had a few weeks ago named Abubakar Badaru and Bello Matawalle as Minister and Minister of State, Defence respectively. The two who until recently were governors of Jigawa and Zamfara states were not bookmakers’ predictions for the highly sensitive security sector based on their zero military experience.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, security consultant, Captain Umar Aliyu (retd.) came short of saying that the choice of the two ex-governors might leave Nigeria in a worse state.

He said, “When you look at where we are coming from and where we are, you can then begin to imagine where we are going. The immediate past Minister of Defence was General Bashir Magashi (retd). When Magashi came on board this same APC under Buhari, we wondered why it had to be him. The reason was that Magashi as of the time he was appointed minister by Buhari had been out of touch with governance. At that time, there were enough Generals who had served in a democracy from 1999 to the time Magashi was appointed Defence Minister but Buhari did not choose any of them. Buhari went on to bring in a man who served his entire career in a military dispensation. The man had no idea of what the democracy of security was all about.

“If a General could only achieve what we saw the last time, what more of an Abubakar Badaru and Bello Matawalle? Even though being a Defence Minister is not exclusively the job of a General, having the required antecedents is an added advantage. If you put a blind man in a dark room, with black walls, he is handicapped because even if you give him eyes, he won’t see.”

That said, Aliyu warned of imminent danger if the two ministers failed to master the intrigues in their new terrain fast enough.

“If Badaru and Matawalle do not tread carefully, there are hawks in the Ministry of Defence who will exploit their current situation and at the end of the day, the bulk will stop on their tables whether for credit or for blame,” he added.

Taking a different position, security expert and golden member of the Switzerland Security Association, Mr Jackson Ojo, said there was no cause for alarm, adding that the zero military experience notwithstanding, the ex-governors could make a difference if they would be able to muster the political will to get things done in the interest of the nation. 

His words, “The minister of Defence is an administrative officer but he has enormous influence and powers over the military and paramilitary security apparatus of the country. The most important thing is for the minister to have will power. If the President really wants to see the difference in the security situation of this country, there is no minister that will not act.

“The fact that he has a retired senior police officer as the National Security Officer and they are working in tandem is enough reason to hope for a new dawn. When the NSA came to Port Harcourt for the inspection of oil facilities recently, I was glad that he came with the Minister and Minister of State for Defence. It shows they will work in synergy with the NSA. Once the service chiefs see that these people are working together, they will have to cooperate.

Badaru may not be a security expert, but he has been a chief security officer of a state for eight years. The most important thing is the cooperation with the NSA. The two ministers can do a lot. It is good that the President has charged everyone to hit the ground running. That is an added motivation for them to perform because non-performance can earn them the sacking.”

Finance

The naira is on a free-fall; no thanks to the monetary inconsistency of the Buhari-led administration, with a Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, whose professional calling as a banker was compromised by his near venture into the world of partisan politics.

Although President Tinubu has brought in an economic expert, Wale Edun, as the Minister of Finance to steer the wheel of the sector, Abuja-based tax consultant, Adams Echono said the new man “would need to move very quickly to sanitise the Nigeria financial system. Nigeria is in dire straits financially and will need the expertise of Mr Wale Edun to bring some stability to the nation’s economy. The minister’s input will bring stability into our fiscal and monetary system, help manage our huge debt portfolio and ensure fiscal responsibility across all tiers of government.”

Education 

The Minister of Education, Tahir Mamman, has also promised to hit the ground running, having assured Nigerians that the National Library would be completed in 21 months. Besides this all-important project, Nigerians are eagerly awaiting his magic wand on how to revive the sector, particularly at the tertiary level.

While it may be too early to hazard a guess at the programmes he is likely to unveil in the weeks ahead, Nigerians will be glad to have in the saddle a Minister of Education who will play his part in ensuring that the perennial industrial actions witnessed during the administration of General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) become a thing of the past.

The global ranking of universities is an area Professor Tahir needs to avail the nation of his wealth of experience and know-how. How he does this remains to be seen in the months ahead.

Marine and Blue Economy

The creation of the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy is seen as a strategic move by President Tinubu to delve into Nigeria’s untapped aquatic endowments. Blessed with vast waterways spread across the northern and southern plains, Nigeria has yet to reap bountifully from this sub-sector. This, experts attributed to decades of neglect by successive administrations; military and civilian combined.

The appointment of the immediate past governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, has been commended by industry players not because of his expertise but because of his willingness to learn and determination to make a difference.

The minister has expressed his readiness to bring in expertise to tap into the sector, earn the nation revenue and invest in the sector value chain for sustainable impact and job creation. Perhaps, the nation’s quest to attain United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal number 14 (Life under Water) is on its way to fruition with the creation of the Marine and Blue Economy

Speaking with our correspondent, Gombe-based agriculturalist, Sanusi Yunusa, tasked Oyetola to make the sector the next goldmine after oil and gas.

 “I was particularly happy with the creation of this Ministry. Although I don’t know the minister’s brief, I do hope he is allowed to make decisions concerning fishery. There is no reason for this country to be spending huge amount of foreign exchange to import fish and fish products. We have the waters. The Lake Chad that is drying up should be quickly looked into as well. We have a lot of money-spinning opportunities in this country, but investment is lacking,” he said.

Mr Yunusa further called on the Federal Government to give the new minister the freedom to implement his ideas to avail the country the mileage embedded in the sector.

Works

Except for the education and health sectors, works is one area President Bola Tinubu can carve a niche for his administration in the next four years. Some of the nation’s highways had in the past few decades turned to death traps, following successive administration’s failure to either rehabilitate them or construct new ones.

Despite claims by the immediate past administration that it constructed 600 roads spread across the country, Nigerians, majority of whom travel by road, would be glad to see the new Minister of Works, Dave Umahi hit the ground running. Good a thing, the immediate past governor of Ebonyi State has promised to bring his engineering ingenuity to bear starting with the lightening up of the Lagos/Ibadan expressway.

Although politicians’ words are often taken with a pinch of salt, there is a sufficient premise to hope in the new era given Umahi’s impressive achievement in infrastructural development in Ebonyi State, particularly in roads and flyovers’ construction. In what appears a deviation from the past, Umahi’s reign may involve local contractors with the Federal Government now mooting the possibility of embracing public private partnership once again. 

“We are going to be reintroducing the PPP to allow private individuals or firms take part in our road construction and running same for a period of time. We are not going to introduce tolling on our federal expressways but maybe with time, we will. What matters now is to fix these roads,” Umahi was quoted as saying in a maiden meeting with staff members of the ministry and contractors in Abuja recently.

Perhaps, the minister’s resolve to deploy technology will not only culminate into quality jobs but may spell doom for contractors whose stock in trade is poor service delivery.

Speaking recently in Abuja, Umahi said, “I will challenge my fellow engineers on the issue of concrete technology. Even in the midst of forex challenge and petroleum crisis, the nation is endowed with natural resources; so, we should be prepared for the renewed hope of the present government anchored on change.

“I am not an office person; I am a field person, which means we are going to make changes. We are starting inspection tours to inspect ongoing projects and to know the ones to come up with.”

Should the PPP arrangement come on board, direct and indirect jobs would be created to absorb a good number of Nigerians who would be too glad to deploy their creative energies to earn a living.

Power

Power Minister, Adebayo Adelabu’s assuring words of stable and affordable power supply is music to the ears of Nigerians who have been treated to epileptic power supply for decades. Adelabu said the Federal Government would go the whole distance to take advantage of the Nigerian Electricity Act, 2023, which provides for a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for the operation of a fully privatised, cost and service-reflective tariff, to boost power supply across the country. 

Stable power supply, if attained, would propel Tinubu to the summit of national prominence given that previous administrations failed to deliver on promises made. Already, a total sum of N7tn has been expended as direct intervention in the power sector by the Federal Government. There is a belief that stable power supply is likely to birth a new crop of businessmen and a return of companies who left Nigeria a few years ago owing to the cost of powering their plants on their own.

An inspector of Police captured on video camera slapping a commuter repeatedly in Imo State is now cooling off at the Provost Marshal’s office at the Police headquarters, in Abuja.

The officer was captured by another commuter on a shuttle, first, manhandling the victim who appeared not to be intimidated by the officer.

The incident captured by another commuter in a 41-minute viral video showed the victim wearing a face cap and a white T-shirt.

The victim could be heard saying, “I did not do anything”, when the officer, clearly infuriated, removed the victim’s cap and used it to hit his face.

When the rest of the commuters pleaded with him to stop hitting the young man, he warned them and asked that they stay away from the matter.

The officer again threatened to slap another commuter standing beside the victim who was pleading.

The officer was further captured saying to the victim, “Are you the only person? If you say rubbish, I will beat you. I will tell my boys to lock you in the booth.

“Do you know who I am? How many of your family are police inspectors? I am asking you”, he yelled at the victim who was trying to make a comment while also hitting him.

The victim then calmly responded saying, “This thing you are doing here, if I make a call you will be in trouble”.

Enraged by his statement, the officer hit him further, attempting to use a stick he was holding on the victim.

Updating Nigerians on Saturday evening, the spokesperson of the police said the inspector was “brought to the FHQ, Abuja, and he has been handed over to the Provost Marshal for necessary disciplinary action”’

He added, “We will not condone any act of unprofessionalism”.

Muyiwa also posted an image of the Inspector in his office in Abuja, where he was made to watch himself in the viral video.

In the dying days of his administration in 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo sold 51 percent of federal government’s stakes in two of Nigeria’s four ailing refineries to Bluestar Oil Services Ltd — a consortium floated by Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil and Transcorp Plc — for $761 million. Shortly after the inauguration of a new administration, the oil industry unions — apparently prompted — kicked that Obasanjo sold the refineries to his cronies, insisted that one of the refineries alone was worth over $5 billion, and staged a four-day strike. President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua gleefully reversed the privatisation and returned the refineries to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

Alhaji Abubakar Lawal Yar’Adua, appointed the NNPC group managing director by President Yar’Adua, told the world in September 2007 that all our refineries would start working at “near full capacity” by December 2007 after “rehabilitation” which, you may want to know, cost us several billions of naira. In preparation for the magic, he said government had awarded a $52 million contract for the repair of the Chanomi Creek pipeline, the main feeder pipeline to Warri and Kaduna refineries blown up by militants in 2006. All was set for the amazing revamp of the 445,000 barrels per day (bpd) refineries, after which we would stop importing petroleum products and live together happily ever after.

What happened next? We are now in September 2023 — on the 16th anniversary of Yar’Adua’s monumental promise — and Nigeria is still waiting for the magic to happen. (As an aside, Yar’Adua was named in the Panama Papers to have secretly bought an £890,000 house in London in 2008 while serving as the NNPC GMD, using a company he registered in the British Virgin Islands — but there is nothing to see there). Sixteen years after the unions said the Port Harcourt refinery alone was worth $5 billion, no one would buy it for N5 million. Sixteen years after we bungled a major victory for local refining of petroleum products, we are still helplessly and hopelessly hooked on fuel imports.

But Yar’Adua was not alone. Every single president after him promised to get the refineries working at “near full capacity”. President Goodluck Jonathan vowed to raise the dead. Between 2013 and 2015, he reportedly spent $396 million on turnaround maintenance (TAM) — and the refineries have still not worked, although I admit that the fortune of a few individuals experienced turnaround miracles. In April 2021, Mallam Mele Kyari, the CEO of NNPC Ltd, followed the enviable tradition of his predecessors by signing a $1.5 billion contract to rehabilitate the Port Harcourt refinery. President Bola Tinubu has now customarily promised that the refineries will be back by December 2023.

In summary, 16 years after we reversed the sale of the refineries because they were bought by Obasanjo’s “cronies” and promised to get them back to “near full capacity”, we have burnt billions of dollars on TAM contracts and we are still here waiting patiently and enthusiastically for Godot. We are still promising to get the refineries to work “by December” (why always December?) and have no clue when this bizarre bazaar will be over. From the time of Gen Sani Abacha till date, all the presidents have played the same card of getting the refineries to work. It appears there is a hymn sheet at the Presidential Villa from which they all sing: the harmony is enduring and unbelievable.

But you know what? If you take a proper look at the financial and economic implications of fuel importation in Nigeria, you will find a damning explanation for some of the woes overwhelming us today. Shall we discuss the billions of dollars we have burnt on demurrage and storage charges on fuel imports since 1999 (because our ports do not have the adequate reception capacity and the NNPC does not have sufficient storage facilities)? Shall we discuss the fact that the resources we have burnt on demurrage and storage expenses over the same period could have built the biggest refineries in the world and turned us to exporters of both crude oil and petroleum products?

Does anyone ever calculate how much of our forex earnings we burn on fuel importation? This is the largest single consumer of forex today. I wonder what might have been if we had taken another route. When Obasanjo was president and we had considerable savings from oil revenue, I campaigned vigorously that we should invest in a new refinery. I was lectured by neo-liberal fanatics that government should not run a refinery, that it should be the business of the private sector. I conceded but with a request: let us build a refinery (since no investor was willing to do so), lease out the management and sell it off after some years. Let us just stop fuel importation by any means!

The cost of the decisions we took — or failed to take — yesterday is coming back to bite us hard today and threatening to pull down the already fragile economy. With dwindling oil output and export, we are currently facing a double whammy: we export little oil and spend the little income to import petroleum products because we do not refine at home. Things got so bad at a stage that we did not have enough crude to exchange for products, so we mortgaged future oil production in order to import petrol for today. We are digging one hole after the other to fill the other holes we have dug everywhere. It is difficult to understand how we do things here and expect positive outcomes.

Help me make sense of this. A farmer produces yams and sells a tuber for N2,000 to Mama Put. But because he does not have the mortar and pestle to pound the yam, he goes to the Mama Put to buy a wrap of pounded yam for N1,000. Mama Put can probably make N10,000 per tuber, selling it as pounded, fried, boiled or roasted yam, or making yam flour and amala from it. Mama Put can sell the peels as feed for goats. There are several products from yam! Now, wait for this: our farmer friend runs into a harvest problem and starts buying pounded yam on credit, promising to pay with next year’s harvest. That is Nigeria for you: selling crude oil and spending the revenue to import petrol.

The country should be exporting petroleum products — such as petrol, diesel, low pour oil fuel, and jet fuel — and earning billions of dollars, in addition to the little matter of jobs and tax revenue. We want the naira to exchange at N1/$1 (whatever the merits are) but how can you spend all your forex on importing petrol and still expect the naira not to keep losing value? What else are you exporting to earn dollars? Where are the dollars? If income from your biggest export, which used to account for 90 percent of your forex earnings, has been going down for years, what else are you doing to get more dollar inflow into your economy? It seems we are expecting the dollar to fall from heaven.

Let us go to Singapore briefly. The country is less than the size of Lagos state and has a population of 5.6 million. But we are not here to discuss land mass and population. My interest is the size of the intellect. The country does not have oil but it has some of the biggest refineries in the world with the capacity to refine 1.5 million bpd. Nigeria, one of the world’s richest in crude reserves, has been having the capacity for 445,000 bpd since 1987 and rarely refines a barrel. Singapore is regarded as Asia’s oil hub and earned $40.8 billion from exporting refined petroleum products in 2021. Yes, $40.8 billion! It is not about resource wealth or political system. It is the brain. Vision. Mission. Passion.

What more can I say? Ajaokuta Steel Mill has become a centre of stealing since it was conceived in 1979. Up till today, we have not finished stealing through Ajaokuta. If it was a country where our heads were properly screwed on our necks, we would be earning billions of dollars from exporting iron and steel, to say nothing about the jobs and the value chain in the economy. According to data by CEPII, the leading French centre for research and expertise on the world economy, China earned $61 billion from iron and steel exports in 2021. Japan earned $35 billion, Germany $32.8 billion, Russia $30.5 billion, and South Korea $28 billion. These things start from the brain. It is not magic.

Don’t let us get started with palm oil. Forget the legendary story of how an Asian country came to take palm seedlings from Nigeria some decades ago and is now a world leader in the production of the cash crop. As far as I am concerned, that is history and we should move on for Pete’s sake. The part I cannot understand for the life of me is why we keep lamenting as if lamentation ever solved any problem. There are more depressing statistics to share with us but I think we can chew on this for a while: in 2022, Indonesia earned $27.8 billion from palm oil exports alone. I am attracted by the enormous forex earnings for sure, but I am more smitten by the associated economic activities.

Let’s be frank: the solution to our economic and security challenges are hidden in plain sight. It is no rocket science. Nigeria can be one of the biggest exporters of palm oil, petrol, solid minerals, name it — if we use our brains positively. We have no business with being a net importer of petroleum products, so much so the aviation industry is sometimes paralysed because of fuel scarcity. Nigeria is the only country that experiences this constant affliction. Some things are too weird about us. That is why some think the country is under a spell. I can’t say if it is a spiritual problem because spiritual matters are above my paygrade, but I am sure that we don’t know what we are doing. We’re lost.

But when you see that some sectors are doing well —  fintech and entertainment, for instance — in spite of the government, you cannot but conclude that the political leadership has questions to answer. We have a warped concept of governance. When you run a system where the unwritten code is that leadership is all about personal comfort and there are no consequences for bad behaviour, what you get is a Nigeria. We know what ails us. It’s been well diagnosed. But we have refused to take our medication: competent and patriotic leadership at all levels. Our capacity for shortsightedness and selfishness is legendary and damaging. Do I really need to spell that out again?

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

GABON GARRISSON

Gabon is the latest African country to come under the jackboot with the overthrow of President Ali Bongo Ondimba shortly after he was declared winner of a flawed election that returned him to office for a third term. He had succeeded his late father, Omar, in 2009. I was amused that father and son had ruled Gabon for a combined period of 56 years before the military coup — only for me to read reports that the new military ruler, Brigadier General Brice Oligui Nguema, is the ousted president’s cousin. I didn’t know whether to be angry or burst into laughter. I now can’t say what is more odious — the father-and-son stranglehold on Gabon or the incursion by their extended family. Africa!

COUP CONTAGION

Military coups are back in full force in Africa and I must be one of the least excited. I will say this one more time: military should stay out of politics. By their training and orientation, soldiers are not primed to govern the civil populace. Most of Africa was ruled by soldiers in the 1970s and 1980s and if they were geniuses, Africa would be competing with the rest of the world today. I will never argue against the notion that there is a general leadership problem on the continent. I will also not deny the fact that liberal democracy has not delivered the dividends as it should. But the military has not proved itself to be better either. Let’s give democracy a chance, no matter how imperfect. Liberties.

ALL EYES ON P&ID

There are underground moves by some selfish Nigerians to cut a deal in the P&ID case by seeking to arrest the British high court judgment. The facts, according to our lawyers, are positive for us. More so, we have a right of appeal if we lose, so it is difficult to understand why some fellows are trying to stampede President Bola Tinubu to go for out-of-court settlement. If we win, P&ID and its backers will not get a penny. Instead, the court may ask them to pay our costs. It is already a good signal that a court allowed us to challenge the $6.6 billion (plus interests) award because of allegations of corruption in the contracting process. Tinubu must not cave in to these commission chasers. Greed.

AND FINALLY…

Mr Wale Adedayo, chairman of Ijebu East LGA, Ogun state, bluntly told Mr Dapo Abiodun, the governor, that the “emperor has not clothes”. He accused the governor of hijacking the funds meant for councils — a major obstacle to the proper functioning of the local government system in Nigeria. The emperor was very angry. Councillors from Ijebu East quickly visited the emperor with their tails between their legs, apologising for Adedayo’s misdemeanour, and wailing: “We are sorry sir! The emperor has clothes! The emperor is not naked!” Seven councillors proceeded to suspend Adedayo for three months over allegations of maladministration and financial mismanagement. Nigeria!

The Nigeria Police Force on Saturday said it is investigating a report of an alleged extortion of N620,000 by some men said to be police officers wearing Mufti along the Sanni Abacha road, GRA in Rivers State.

The Police Spokesperson, ACP Olumuyiwa Adejobi disclosed this while reacting to the complaints via his X, formerly Twitter, account.

Some men said to be officers of the Rivers State Police Command were reported to have accosted one Daniel at about 9 p.m. while he rode on an Uber.

The men, five in number, were said to have appeared in an all-black attire without name tags or a serial number for identification.

The brother of the victim, who reported the case via his X handle @smartninho narrated: “They seized his phone and went through it. They found nothing and went ahead to open all his bank apps and saw money in his accounts.

“They beat him up and put him in their Sienna. They kept beating him in the sienna with other boys they picked in a similar style. They did not allow him to communicate with his family or relatives.

“They drove them to a thick bush in Ogoni and continued to the border of Akwa Ibom. There they stopped and brought him out. They continued beating and threatening to shoot him if he didn’t transfer a huge amount to them.

“They started with a request for Twenty million Naira (N20m). They emptied his accounts, removing over Six hundred and twenty thousand Naira (N620k)”.

The post shared at 3: 38 p.m. on Saturday, gained traction after an independent journalist and influencer on the X App escalated the incident via his paid blue tick page.

The spokesperson of the police, Muyiwa while reacting said, “This will be looked into again. I am personally taking it up”.

He added, “I agree that we have recorded some cases against the men in Rivers Command, and we will address them all. I want to commend those who have been sending in their complaints. Justice will be done”.

The Rivers State Police command has come under fire in recent times following numerous complaints and claims from residents of brutality, indiscriminate extortion, high-handedness, unprofessionalism and public disobedience of police extant laws.

In April, three officers were captured assaulting a motorist in the state. The officers were seen slapping the victim repeatedly after beating him with a cane.

In a follow-up to Muyiwa’s reaction, the Nigeria Police Force also took to its official page to condemn the situation, pledging to take action if “guilt is proven”.

It said, “We take misconduct allegations seriously and are concerned about the reported incident. The welfare and safety of all citizens matter.

“An investigation is underway. Rest assured, action will be taken if guilt is proven. Thank you for bringing this to our notice”.

The management of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, a Federal Government-contracted oil pipeline surveillance firm has accused the Nigerian Navy of arresting its staff while ensuring that oil thieves fled when the company staff made attempts to arrest them.

The company also said it had evidence to disprove the arrest and continued detention of its personnel over an alleged crude oil theft.

Operatives of the Navy under the Commander of Nigerian Navy Ship, NNS Beecroft, Commodore Kolawole Oguntuga had arrested four Tantita personnel on the waterways in Itolu community, Lekki, in Lagos State.

The Navy said they were investigating the circumstances that led to economic sabotage and how the oil product from Ondo State made its way to the Lagos Sea.

But Tantita in a statement on Saturday explained details of the incident accusing the Navy of sabotage.

It said, “On Monday, August 28, at about 1:30 p.m., a Tantita Security Services patrol team operating in the Ondo State area received credible intelligence that a motorised wooden boat was illegally loading crude oil from an offshore oil well jacket.

“In fact, the same well jacket in OML 110 operated by Cavendish Petroleum Nigeria Limited, where we caught MT TURA II stealing crude oil, a few months ago.

“They dispatched an advance team to find the wooden boat while a backup team comprising Nigeria Civil Defence and Security Corps (NSCDC) component of the government security agencies (GSA) was assembled to follow through on the lead.

“While we cannot name the NSCDC personnel for obvious reasons, they were six and our personnel were eight, not four. The advance team with the help of local fisher folk could determine that the motorised wooden boat was heading toward Lagos and gave hot pursuit.

“Upon noticing the approaching Tantita teams, the crew of the motorised wooden boat abandoned the wooden boat for their speed boat.

“One team of Tantita and NSCDC personnel boarded the wooden boat to secure the evidence while another team gave hot pursuit.

“There is video evidence of the Tantita team together with NSCDC personnel coming alongside the wooden boat, boarding and attempting to secure the boat.

“There is also evidence of the Tantita and GSA team giving chase to the crew of the boat. How then did the Nigerian Navy get involved in this operation?

“The escaping crew of the motorised wooden boat fled toward the Nigerian Navy Forward Operating Base at Ibeju-Lekki, so the Tantita and NSCDC personnel followed in hot pursuit, believing that the criminals would meet their waterloo there.

“They were wrong. Instead of the fleeing crew being arrested, it was the Tantita personnel who came down to apprehend the fleeing crew that was arrested.

“After arresting Tantita personnel and freeing the crew, the Nigerian Navy personnel then went to the motorised wooden boat and drove out the combined Tantita/GSA team trying to keep the boat and the evidence afloat.”

The firm stated that as soon as the men were arrested, the management of Tantita reached out to the Navy for clarification of the situation, and they received feedback saying they were investigating and the men would be released, yet they were still being detained.

Tantita claimed to have gotten the outcome of the Navy’s investigation on the incident saying “There are even more damning revelations, which out of courtesy to the Navy hierarchy and the needs of national security we will not divulge on the pages of a newspaper”.

It, however, noted that “the continued detention by the Nigerian Navy of these five brave, selfless Nigerians who risked their lives on the high seas to protect our commonwealth is a disservice to our nation.

“These family men put their lives at risk for the good of the nation and are now being made to suffer ridicule for doing the right thing. It serves to demoralise good men everywhere who have sought and are seeking to do something to better our nation”, the firm stated.

Simon Ekpa, acclaimed prime minister of Biafra Government in Exile (BRGIE), Saturday, said “if Nnamdi Kanu and other Biafrans being illegally detained by the Nigeria state are not released, and all roadblocks and checkpoints in the South-East not dismantled on or before 15th of September 2023, the people will embark on another 3 weeks’ civil disobedience with a curfew.”

Ekpa stated this in a release entitled ‘delegitimisation of Nigeria within Biafra territory’.

The breakdown of the three-week sit-at-home shows that ‘Week One, September 18, 2023, will be the normal Monday sit-at-home; September 19, 2023, to September 22, 2023 will be a curfew from 6am to 12 noon; while September 23 2023 will be normal movement.

The statement added, “Week Two, 25.9.2023, there will be normal Monday sit-at-home; 26.9.2023 to 29.9.2023, there will be curfew from 6am to 12noon; 30.9.2023 and 1.10.2023 and 1.10. 2023, there will be normal movement in Biafra country.

“Week Three, 2.10.2023, normal Monday sit-at-home; 3.10.2023 to 6.10.2023, there will be curfew from 6am to 12noon. During this 3 weeks’ curfew, every Nigeria government secretariat in Biafra territory must shut down in all states.”

Our correspondent reports that Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra in June this year, barred Ekpa from declaring sit-at-home, describing the act as ‘killing the economy of the south-easterners whom he is fighting for’.

Kanu’s handwritten statement was unveiled during a world press conference in Enugu organised by his special counsel, Barr Aloy Eimakor.

Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Wing had, Friday, reaffirmed their resolve to end sit-at-home in the Southeast of Nigeria.

According to the National Publicity Secretary of Ohanaeze, Alex Ogbonnia, Ohanaeze youths “expressed concern over the instigated insecurity and socio-economic disruptions in Igbo land.

” While commending the Southeast governors for all the efforts towards overcoming these challenges, the acting national youth leader, Mazi Chukwuma Okpalaezeukwu, stated that they shall not rest on their oars till peace and security is restored in Southeast and Nigeria at large.”

IPOB had declared sit-at-home in 2021 to demand the release of Kanu who is being detained at the custody of the DSS over alleged treason, running a proscribed group and jumping bail.

Despite the cancellation of the sit-at-home by IPOB, Ekpa’s renegade wing has been ordering sit-at-home, including a two-week sit-at-home last month.

The Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi SAN, has assured Nigerians that his ministry would be transparent and people-centered in all its dealings.

The minister, who spoke during the Annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), explained that transparency and people-centredness in rule of law are key to the country’s progress.

The NBA’s annual conference which was held in Abuja ended on Friday.

At the gathering, Fagbemi held that going forward, the Ministry under his watch will place the fundamental rights of average citizens and their well being at the centre of its strategies or policies.

“I have realised that with the enormity of tasks at hand, the most reliable approach to making significant progress will be to place the people at the centre of every policy and strategy of the Ministry.

“With the generous support of Mr. President, my Ministry will dedicate its time and resources in the promotion of people-centred Justice,” said Fagbemi who also promised that his ministry’s reform agenda would involve promotion of the rule of law and administration of justice.

“We will maintain fair, transparent, and responsive processes that will reflect the aspirations of Nigerians in the overall promotion of the rule of law and administration of justice,” Fagbemi said.

THE WHISTLER reports that Fagbemi became Nigeria’s 24th AGF after his swearing-in by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Monday, 21st August, 2023.

Before his nomination as AGF, he served as the lead counsel of the All Progressives Congress (APC), defending the ruling party against petitions challenging the election of Tinubu at the Presidential Election Petition Court sitting in Abuja.