Oil prices rallied while the dollar and yen advanced Monday after Hamas launched a shock attack on Israel at the weekend, sparking fresh concerns about tensions in the Middle East.

The crisis fanned concerns about supplies of crude from the region at a time when supply worries are already high owing to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s output cuts.

It has also renewed fears about the impact on inflation, with energy costs a key driver of spiking prices, giving a fresh headache to central banks as they try to ease up on interest rate hikes to avoid recessions.

The surprise attack and Israel’s declaration of war in response to it have left more than 1,000 dead and raised concerns that a potential broadening of the conflict could draw in the United States and Iran.

“Key for markets is whether the conflict remains contained or spreads to involve other regions, particularly Saudi Arabia,” said ANZ Group’s Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes.

“Initially at least, it seems markets will assume the situation will remain limited in scope, duration, and oil-price consequences. But higher volatility can be expected.”

Both main contracts surged more than five per cent in early Asian business before easing back as the day wore on.

However, SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes warned: “Historical analysis suggests that oil prices tend to experience sustained gains after the Middle East crises.

“Meanwhile, stocks tend to eventually recover and trend higher after an initial period of volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold and Treasury, which initially see gains during such crises, tend to fade from their initial price spikes as the situation stabilises.

“But with Middle East analysts considering this to be a pivotal moment for Israel, the view looks incendiary in any current scenario.”

A decidedly risk-off mood also saw investors push into the safety of the dollar, which was up against the pound and euro, as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The yen, considered one of the safest currencies, strengthened against the greenback, though it still remains locked around 11-month lows.

Gold, another key haven, gained around one per cent.

Equity markets were mixed, with Shanghai dropping on its first day back after a week-long holiday as investors continue to fret over the stuttering Chinese economy.

There were also losses in Mumbai, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Wellington, though Hong Kong rose in shortened trade, having been closed in the morning owing to a typhoon.

Sydney and Jakarta eked out gains. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

London edged up while Paris and Frankfurt were lower.

The tepid performance came despite a rally on Wall Street, where traders welcomed data showing a forecast-busting jump in new jobs but wage growth slowing.

The “Goldilocks” figures – neither too strong nor too weak – lifted optimism the world’s top economy can avoid a recession even as the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated.

Still, there are worries the bank will hike one more time before the end of the year, with officials determined to bring inflation to heel and keep it at their two per cent target.

[DailyTrust]

Arab League foreign ministers will meet on Wednesday to discuss Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip following a surprise assault by Hamas on Israel, the regional bloc announced.

Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Saturday and said the surprise attack was in response to the storming of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and increased settler violence. It said it fired rockets and captured many Israelis.

The meeting in Eygpt’s capital, Cairo will seek to find “avenues of political action at the Arab and international level”, as Israel keeps pounding targets in Gaza following Saturday’s attack, Arab League deputy Chief Hossam Zaki said in a statement.

The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Saturday, requested an emergency ministerial-level meeting of the Arab League over the latest Israeli escalation.

In a statement, the ministry said it had directed “its permanent delegation to the Arab League to request an emergency meeting of the League Council at the ministerial level.”

The development was reached over “the escalation of the Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people,” it said.

The Moroccan Foreign Ministry on Sunday, also called for an emergency Arab League meeting at the level of Arab foreign ministers for “consultation and coordination on the deterioration of the situation in the Gaza Strip and the outbreak of military actions targeting civilians.”

Intensive consultations are underway for the meeting to be held this week at the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo, the ministry said in a written statement.

[Punch]

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has appointed some men and women to serve in the Office of the President under the Media and Publicity Directorate.

A statement signed by Ajuri Ngelale, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, enumerated the new appointees as follows:

(1) Mr Fela Durotoye Senior Special Assistant to the President — National Values & Social Justice

(2) Mr Fredrick Nwabufo Senior Special Assistant to the President — Public Engagement

(3) Mrs Linda Nwabuwa Akhigbe

Senior Special Assistant to the President — Strategic Communications

(4) Mr Aliyu Audu

Special Assistant to the President — Public Affairs

(5) Mr Francis Adah Abah Personal Assistant to the President — Special Duties

According to the statement, the President has further approved the secondment of Mrs. Linda Nwabuwa Akhigbe to serve as the Communications Adviser to the President of the ECOWAS Commission.

He tasks all new appointees who are serving in the Media and Publicity Directorate to uphold the highest standards of decorum and decency in their engagements with all members of the public as they advance the President’s determined bid to renew the hope of Nigerians in a restructured economy and unified society that caters sufficiently to the needs of all.

The President reportedly followed the full tenets of Nigeria’s federal character principle and the supremacy of merit in this new appointment

[DailyPost]

The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, Betta Edu, said the Federal Government will launch a conditional cash transfer to 15 million households on October 17, 2023.

Edu stated this while speaking in an interview on Channels Television.

This comes months after the Federal Government stopped the payment of subsidies on petroleum.

She said, “With the approval from the President which we hope to get this week, on the 17th of October, we will be officially launching the conditional cash transfer to 15m households in Nigeria.”

According to Edu, the ministry is working with stakeholders across the country to get a credible register of beneficiaries.

She said, “As we speak, we are having a verification exercise. Every state can bear us witness that we have put boots on the ground – persons who are working with the state cash transfer office as well as the governors who are the heads of the steering committee and then several other persons.

“All of this is to be sure those who are on the national social register truly are Nigerians who fall [spend] within the under $1.95 a day [range] and they deserve to have it.”

The minister, who noted that some persons on the register may have died or moved up the economic ladder, said the verification exercise is to clean up the register.

She said, “So, two things. First, as we speak, we are on the field cleaning up that data and doing a complete verification and we are juxtaposing both the BVN, NIM and the rest of it to identify these people and be sure we are dealing with authentic persons.

“And then, of course, there is biometrics to it and you have a capturing of the head of the household as well as a picture of the household so it can be located.

“On each of these households, they are numbered so people can go there and verify against the register,” she said.

The Lagos High Court Sitting at the Tafawa Balewa Square on Lagos Island, on Monday, sentenced the suspended Assistant Superintendent of Police, Drambi Vandi, who killed a Lagos-based lawyer, Mrs. Omobolanle Raheem, to death by hanging.

Justice Ibironke Harrison sentenced the ASP after finding him guilty of the murder of the pregnant lawyer.

Harrison held that the prosecution was able to prove its case beyond reasonable doubt.

The judge also held that the convict shot the deceased at close range.

The PUNCH reports in April that the court dismissed a “no case submission” filed Vandi.

Justice Harrison ordered the defendant to open his defence as a ‘prima facie’ has been made against him.

In his application on the no-case submission, Vandi had asked the court to dismiss the suit and discharge him claiming that he had no case to answer.

In his arguments, the defence counsel, Adetokunbo Odutola, told the court to note among other things that none of the eyewitnesses saw the defendant shoot and that the ballistic report of the gun allegedly fired expressly stated that the bullet could not be linked with any of the firearms recovered from the police officers at the scene.

Oduntola who argued that the pathologist who testified mentioned that the bullet penetrated from the left through the armpit while the prosecution stated that the deceased was shot in the chest.

However, the prosecution led by the Attorney General of Lagos State, Moyosore Onigbanjo (SAN), had countered the arguments and urged the defendant to defend himself insisting that the prosecution had successfully made its case against him.

The Israeli government for­mally declared war on Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack from the Gaza Strip, portending greater fighting ahead as the toll from the conflict passed 900 dead and thousands wounded on both sides.

More than 24 hours after Hamas launched its unprece­dented incursion out of Gaza, Israeli forces were still trying to crush the last groups of mil­itant fighters holed up in sev­eral towns of southern Israel. At least 600 people have report­edly been killed in Israel — a staggering toll on a scale the country has not experienced in decades — and more than 300 have been killed in Gaza as Israeli airstrikes pound the territory.

Authorities were still try­ing to determine how many civilians and soldiers were seized by Hamas fighters during the mayhem and tak­en back to Gaza. From videos and witnesses, the captives are known to include women, chil­dren, and the elderly.

As many as 1,000 Hamas fighters were involved in the assault, U.S. Secretary of State Andrew Blinken said on ABC’s ‘This Week’ – a high figure that underscored the extent of planning by the militant group ruling Gaza. The gunmen rampaged for hours, firing on civilians in towns, along highways and at a techno music festival being held in the desert near Gaza.

Civilians on both sides were already paying a high price.

A line of Israelis snaked outside a central Israel police station to supply DNA sam­ples and other means that could help identify missing family members. Israeli TV news aired a stream of ac­counts from relatives of cap­tive or missing Israelis who wept and begged for assis­tance and information.

In Gaza, the tiny enclave of 2.3 million people sealed off by an Israeli-Egyptian blockade for 16 years since the Hamas takeover, residents feared an intensified onslaught. Israeli strikes flattened a number of residential buildings. More than 20,000 people who fled their homes crowded into schools run by the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UN­WRA, the agency said.

Several Israeli media out­lets, citing rescue service officials, said at least 600 people have been killed in Israel, including 44 soldiers. The Gaza Health Ministry said 313 people, including 20 children, were killed in the territory. Some 2,000 people have been wounded on each side. An Israeli official said security forces have killed 400 militants and captured dozens more.

An exchange of fire in northern Israel with the Leb­anese militant group Hezbol­lah raised fears of a spread of the conflict. Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets and shells Sunday at three Israeli posi­tions in a disputed area along the border, and the Israeli mil­itary fired back using armed drones. Two children were lightly wounded by broken glass on the Lebanese side, according to the nearby Mar­jayoun Hospital.

The Israeli military said the situation since was calm after the exchange.

Iranian-backed Hezbollah is estimated to have tens of thousands of rockets at its disposal. Since its brutal 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has stayed on the sidelines amid previous outbreaks of Israe­li-Hamas fighting. But if de­struction in Gaza escalates, it may feel pressure to intervene.

A major question was whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza, a move that in the past has brought intensified casualties.

The declaration of war an­nounced by Israel’s Security Cabinet was largely symbol­ic, said Yohanan Plesner, the head of the Israel Democracy Institute, a local think tank. But it “demonstrates that the government thinks we are entering a more lengthy, intense and significant period of war.”

Israel has carried out ma­jor military campaigns over the past four decades in Leba­non and Gaza that it portrayed as wars, but without a formal declaration.

The Security Cabinet also approved “significant mili­tary steps.” The steps were not defined, but the declaration appears to give the military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a wide mandate.

Speaking on national tele­vision Saturday, Netanyahu vowed that Hamas “will pay an unprecedented price.” He further warned: “This war will take time. It will be diffi­cult.”

In a statement, his office said the aim will be the de­struction of Hamas’ “military and governing capabilities” to an extent that prevents it from threatening Israelis “for many years.”

Israelis were still reeling from the breadth, ferocity and surprise of the Hamas assault. The group’s fighters broke through Israel’s secu­rity fence surrounding the Gaza Strip early Saturday. Using motorcycles and pick­up trucks, even paragliders and speedboats on the coast, they moved into nearby Israeli communities — as many as 22 locations.

The high death toll and slow response to the onslaught pointed to a major intelligence failure and undermined the long-held perception that Is­rael has eyes and ears every­where in the small, densely populated territory it has controlled for decades.

Hamas said that overnight it continued to send forces and equipment into southern Isra­el. On Sunday, fighting contin­ued in some parts of the south, and gunmen still held hostag­es in some locations, Israeli Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters. The Israeli military said it was evacuating at least five towns close to Gaza.

“We will go through every community until we kill every terrorist that is in Israeli ter­ritory,” Hagari said. In Gaza, “every terrorist located in a house, all the commanders in houses, will be hit by Israeli fire. That will continue esca­lating in the coming hours.”

Israel struck 426 targets in Gaza so far, its military said Sunday. Much of the territo­ry’s population was thrown into darkness Saturday night as Israel cut off electricity and said it would no longer supply power, fuel or other goods to the territory.

One woman sheltering at an UNWRA school in Gaza City’s Sheikh Radwan neigh­bourhood described a pan­icked flight from her home in the middle of the night. The Is­raeli military made announce­ments on loudspeakers telling people to leave.

“We didn’t know where to go,” she said. “It was a miracle we arrived at the schools be­cause there was no transport.”

A renowned professor from Ahmadu Bello University, Haruna Yerima, on Sunday appealed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to consider payment of the university lecturers’ eight-month withheld salaries.

The university don, in an interview with journalists in Abuja, argued that paying the eight-month salaries would alleviate the teachers’ sufferings which have been compounded by the removal of fuel subsidy.

He advised the president to use the ongoing engagement with the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Congress of Nigeria (TUC) over subsidy removal to resolve the impasse between the federal government and the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU).

Yerima said parts of the agreement recently reached between the federal government and organized labour was settling all outstanding salaries and wages of the federally-owned tertiary institutions across the country.

He said it was time for the president to do the needful by paying up the withheld salaries of university teachers.

The don, who was a House of Representatives member from 2003 to 2007, also commended the president for adopting dialogue in resolving industrial relations issues.

He said Tinubu must do his best to avoid any confrontation with the labour unions, adding that, “The ‘no work, no pay’ policy adopted by the Buhari’s administration against the university lecturers less than 100 days to the 2023 general elections was unfortunately callous.”

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has dismissed reports that it awarded contracts for the rehabilitation of pipelines across the country to a “northern oil cabal.”

In a statement on Sunday signed by its management, the NNPC said the selection was not conducted solely by the firm, as the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission and the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) were involved.

It said: “To re-emphasise our commitment to transparency, NNPC subjected the selection process to a competitive tender guided by Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) standards, Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission expertise, and the active involvement of a Transaction Advisor.

“We also had representations from NEITI and the Ministry of Justice in the project development team and the evaluation exercise.”

According to the State-owned company, reports of it awarding the contracts to a ‘northern cabal’ are fallacious and designed to bring the firm’s name into disrepute.

The national oil firm said the process was transparent, adding that “NNPC Limited is deeply committed to adhering to the highest standards of transparency and global best practices in all our activities, and this includes our contracting process. These contracts, which were advertised, were awarded based on rigorous evaluation criteria and in line with industry norms.”

NNPC further stated that 17 oil firms were awarded the pipeline rehabilitation contracts.

The company said the list of the awardees that form a consortium shows that lot one was awarded to Oilserve Ltd, Chu Kong Steel Pipe Group Company Ltd, and Saudi Crown Oilserve.

Lot two, NNPC said, went to MacReady Oil and Gas Services, COBRA Instalicios S.A, Control Y Montajes Industriales & International De Pipelines, Iron Products Industries Ltd, Batelitwin Global Services Ltd, Bauen Empresa Constructora SAU, Sanderton Energy Ltd, and The Spanish National Association of Manufacturers.

Also, lot three was allocated to AA Rano, Zakhem Construction Nigeria, Bablinks Resources Ltd, VAE Controls S.R.O, while lot four was awarded to MRS Oil and Gas, CPPE Nigeria Ltd, according to the statement.

While the contract agreement is based on building, operating, and transferring, NNPC said the agreement does not entail the transfer of control of the assets to the companies.

NNPC said it retains ownership of the pipelines; however, the selected partners will finance the rehabilitation.

Too many unusual events in politics point to the fact that democracy is under threat. A few events, some recent and others very current, will demonstrate this point. The first is Donald Trump, possibly the most controversial US president, who set democracy back when he refused to concede to President  Joe Biden and went on to encourage rebellion against democratic ethos and the US institutions. The second is the wave of coups in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past three years, which may signal a lack of faith and a decline in democratic values.

However, some of them result from specific historical developments, which may have little to do with the fortunes of democracy itself. Over the past decade, since 2013, there have been twenty-two coups and attempted coups across the continent, with fourteen of them taking place in the past three years alone (2020-2023). The third is the impeachment of US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the first in US history. The reasons for his impeachment may be far-flung, but at the core are the triple issues of lack of trust in the former Speaker, the dominant presence of Trump in the Republican Party, and the bitter political rivalry between hardcore liberals and conservatives in American politics.

The single most important factor underlying the congressional turmoil is the dominant presence of Trump in the Republican Party. Never in the history of the US has the fate of the Grand Old Party (GOP) been so tied to an individual as currently  being experienced. The undercurrent of what swept away McCarthy is the tussle between anti-Trump and pro-Trump forces in the US congress, particularly in the Republican Party. The few Republican congressmen who cocked the gun on McCarthy only needed the ready massive number of the Democrats to demolish the Speaker whom neither side trusted. Why should we be interested in the impeachment of McCarthy in the US?

There are parallelisms in the issue of trust and mechanics of politics between American and Nigerian politics. The point of trust  in public life is central to leadership, and successful leaders cultivate trust among fellow leaders, followers, and the public in general. I have addressed in this column on 10th October 2022,  the importance of trust in leadership. Transactional leaders may have their way but can never be the model. When it comes to democracy, what people want in leadership is a trusted person who will not be transactional. He must be a man of his word, not a two-faced dealer, hustler, and liar. Any advantage such leaders may gain is temporary, and eventually, their sins will catch up with them. The best word to describe McCarthy is glad-hander. He plays with Trump at night, the Democrats in the morning, and Republicans at noon. As long as it serves his interests, he enjoys it. We have too many of his type in Nigerian politics, and they will likely have the same fate as McCarthy did eventually.

The relationship between trust and the decline  of democracy is a complex and vital issue in politics and contemporary global affairs. Democracy relies heavily on the trust of its citizens in various institutions, including the government, the rule of law, and the electoral process. When trust erodes, it can lead to a retreat or erosion of democratic values and institutions. Trust plays a vital role in the health and stability of democratic systems. The decline of democracy often involves a breakdown of trust in key institutions and processes, which can lead to political instability, the rise of authoritarian leaders, and a weakening of democratic values. Efforts to rebuild trust and strengthen democratic institutions are essential for maintaining and revitalising democratic governance.

Let us examine the various aspects of trust in democratic government and identify how we can build more trust in the system to stem the  decline of democracy.

The first sign of democratic retreat  is the lack of trust in the government. Trust in government is a crucial component of a healthy democracy. Citizens must believe their government is responsive to their needs, accountable, and acting in their best interests. When trust in government declines due to corruption, inefficiency, or perceived lack of representation, it leads to a loss of faith in the democratic system. Little wonder citizens become apathetic and view government as part of their problem instead of the solution to their problems. Corrupt and inefficient government is anathema to democracy. This lack of trust in government is exacerbated by a lack of electoral integrity, which results in an illegitimate democratic government.

Concerns about election manipulation, fraud, or foreign interference can erode trust in the electoral process and the legitimacy of elected leaders. Many countries are facing this anomaly. Studies have shown that the right to choose leaders in a free and fair election, an essential element of democracy, is on the decline globally and not just in sub–Saharan Africa.

Another symptom of democratic retreat is a lack of trust in democratic institutions, especially the Judiciary,  parliament , media and electoral umpire A decline in trust in these institutions can weaken the checks and balances essential for a functioning democracy. A clime where justice is bought and sold to the highest bidder, where the ordinary man ceases to see the courts as the last hope of the common man, and where the executive arm hijacks the Judiciary and turns it into its puppet, can never uphold the ideals and ethos of democracy. Democracy retreats when the media, which should be the fourth estate of the realm and the watchdog of society, are controlled and manipulated by the government and special interests they are meant to hold accountable and stifle the voice of the voiceless and less powerful. Also, the spread of disinformation and the erosion of trust in media can harm democracy. When people no longer trust the information they receive, it becomes difficult for them to make informed decisions as voters and participants in the democratic process.

Besides, high levels of political polarisation contribute to a retreat of democracy by undermining trust between different population segments. When citizens view their political opponents as enemies rather than fellow citizens with differing views, it can lead to political gridlock and undermine the democratic process. Although politicians in all climes prefer to protect their interests above the public interest, leadership change does not necessarily have to be violent or monetarily induced. It should be a tool to reinforce acceptable values in society and reject values that do not represent who we are.

High levels of social trust can lead to greater cooperation and a willingness to compromise, which is crucial for democratic governance. Social trust is more accessible to build in countries with good economic opportunities and high quality of living than in areas with high economic inequalities. Economic inequality contributes to a lack of trust in democratic systems. When citizens perceive that the political and economic elite benefit disproportionately from the system, it can lead to feelings of disillusionment and a retreat from democratic engagement.

Finally, in some cases, declining trust in democratic institutions can lead to the rise of populist leaders who promise to address citizens’ concerns but may undermine democratic norms and institutions in the process. Populist leaders often portray themselves as the sole legitimate voice of “the people,” leading to a concentration of power and retreating from democratic principles.

To stem the tide of democratic retreat, we must tackle most of these issues and build a democracy that adopts all its ideals, ethos, and principles. Also, promoting moral reinforcement , civic education and political literacy can help build trust in democratic institutions by ensuring that citizens understand how the system works and how to engage effectively in the political process. Democracy worldwide is challenged, and it is time all democratic governments worked to prove the superiority of democracy to other forms of government. The rise of successful alternative governments, like in China, the Middle East, and different benevolent autocratic regimes, has questioned the efficacy of democracy and its principles of freedom, equity, and  periodic elections. We cannot yet proclaim the death of democracy, but we can indeed say that democracy, as an ideal, is under intense attack. Democrats all over the world must defend it!

Adewale Adeniyi, Acting Comptroller General of Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has said that the Federal Government would open petrol stations along the international border areas to ease the hardship being faced by the residents of border areas.

Recall that the Federal Government has banned sale of petroleum products within 20-kilemetre radius to international border in order to curb the smuggling of the products out of Nigeria to other neighbouring countries such as Republic of Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger Republic, among others.

Recently, concerned citizens of Ipokia, tagged, ‘Ipokia Youth Forum’ in Ipokia local government area of Ogun state, an international border town between Nigeria and Republic of Benin, have appealed to the Federal Government to life ban on the sale of petroleum products within 20-kilometre radius to the international border which has brought untold hardship on the residents.

The Ipokia Youth Forum decried the ban on the sale of petroleum products along international border, especially at the time of the fuel subsidy removal in the Country, saying the sale ban has fuelled blackmaket sales of petrol as a litre of petrol goes as much as N1,000 per litre in the border areas.

But, speaking at a Press Briefing organised by Ogun 1 Area Command of Nigeria Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, Acting Comptroller-General, declared that the establishment of the filling stations would ease the hardship of residents of the border areas who pay outrageous prices for petrol as a result of measures being implemented to curb smuggling of the product and removal of fuel subsidy.

Speaking on the efforts to curb illicit trade in drugs and the use of hard drugs by Nigerian youths, Adeniyi expressed concern over the high rate of smuggling of hard drugs into the country from neighbouring countries as he confirmed that hard drugs are not only being smuggled into the country by land, but also being brought in through creeks and air routes.

“The country’s security is at great risk because youths have access to these drugs and are misbehaving seriously by taking it”, Adeniyi said, while assuring Nigerians that the Customs would intensify efforts against illicit trade and hard drugs smuggling.

While reeling out statistics of seizures made with one month by Ogun 1 Area Command of Nigeria Customs, Adeniyi said, “Between September 18 and September 30, 2023, the officers of the Ogun 1 Area Command seized 1,436 used Pneumatic tyres, 53 sacks, and 569 parcels of Cannabis Sativa, weighing a total of 1,179 kilograms.

“Additionally, they apprehended 3,149 bags of foreign parboiled rice, each weighing 50 kilograms, alongside 32 vehicles used for conveyance, among other items and these seizures’ Duty Paid Value (DPV) amounts to an impressive N241,977,943.00”, he said.

[BusinessDay]