Contrary to initial predictions that the on-going FIFA World Cup tournament in Qatar would be the dullest ever in the history of the World Cup, it is in fact defying all such doomsday calculations and turning out to be a most exciting event. The quality of play is very high, the various players are superbly motivated, the fans are enthusiastic and as the tournament progresses, it all gets even more exciting. I find myself glued to the TV set every day to keep abreast of this historic event. Initially, politics almost overshadowed the event, with FIFA having to write to all the 32 teams playing a total of 64 matches in this year’s edition to focus on football, and not the protests that had been planned around the issues of human rights record of the Qatar government, LGBTQ+ rights in particular, and the abuse of 30, 000 migrant workers who were hired to build the infrastructure for the World Cup. The government of Qatar built 7 new stadia, an airport, 100 hotels and a fan park. The politics was so much that seven Captains of the participating European teams in fact announced that they would wear “One Love armbands.”  Denmark said they would wear “tone down” shirts. Paris and other French cities threatened that they would not screen the matches in public areas. 

The Ukrainian FA also called for Iran to be banned for “systemic human rights violations”. Ahead of the tournament, Qatari authorities had to go after persons who had made fake World Cup trophies – 144 counterfeit trophies were seized, even counterfeit clothes with World Cup logos were seized. In the second week of November, a luxury liner dubbed by The Sun newspaper of London, as HMS WAG, ferrying the wives and girlfriends of England’s World Cup Squad set sail for Qatar. The players, we were told, were banned from setting foot on the massive ship, but nobody talked about the WAGs going on land to visit their men in the hotel bubbles to which they were going to be confined. There was also the issue of the consumption of alcohol. Alcohol consumption is against the country’s Islamic laws and beliefs. Homosexuality also carries a penalty of a fine or seven years imprisonment in Qatar. 

The irony is that Budweiser, a beer manufacturing company, with a $75 million deal with FIFA, is the major sponsor of the tournament and has been a FIFA sponsor for about two decades. FIFA first announced that it would be possible to drink beer in fan zones, but it eventually reversed itself and Budweiser was told to serve only zero-Bud within the vicinity of the stadiums. Now, Budweiser says the winning country will take all of its unsold beer from Qatar. FIFA would also later agree that persons who wanted to wear rainbow bucket hats or wrist bands could do so, after the Football Association of Wales protested vehemently over the maltreatment of its fans, but as we now know, Qatar’s officials refused. Even after FIFA’s assurance, fans wearing rainbow colours or symbols were arrested or rough-handled at train stations. The only man no one could do anything about is Tottenham Hotspur superstar, and England’s Captain, Harry Kane who decided to go around off-pitch with an 18-karat, diamond-encrusted, Rainbow Rolex watch worth about $950 million – a massive show of wealth, but Kane simply was protesting in support of the LGBTQ+ community and indicating his angst over FIFA’s threat that any player wearing a One Love Band will get an automatic yellow card. Kane could not wear the armband during England’s 6- 2 win over Iran.  Germany also responded last Wednesday before their Group E match kick off against Japan by covering their mouths. Germany’s Interior Minister, Nancy Faeser also wore a One Love arm-band, sitting in the stands, next to Gianni Infantino, the FIFA President. She later took it off, and of course did not get a yellow card -  she, not being a footballer. 

What Qatar represents in my view, is as I pointed out earlier in a parenthetical, prior comment on this page, now built up into an extended commentary, on what I have seen so far, is the clash of civilizations, between a conservative Middle Eastern culture, and a liberal, hypocritical Western outlook. The hypocrisy of the West is writ large. It is okay to collect sponsorship funds from Budweiser, only to turn around and breach contractual agreements and put the entire blame on the recalcitrance of Qatar. The big question in this World Cup is: should Qatar have been granted hosting rights in the first place as far back as 2010? And now 12 years after the fact, the West is complaining about human rights? This looks like a case of the money is good, bring it, but the culture is not good enough. Hell-ooo! In any case, if the World Cup is a game for the whole of humanity, no part of the world should be discriminated against, and what the people and government of Qatar are showing is that if their money is good enough for France, England and all the other Western countries, the onus is on them to also respect their culture and conservative preferences. One clear point from the politics of the current World Cup in Qatar is that the West likes to overdo things, and wittingly too, as they seek to re-write principles of international law in a manner that should be of interest to teachers and students of the subject. 

The most egregious example would seem to be the brazen manner in which the United States Soccer Federation decided to alter the Iranian flag last Saturday and chose to replace the Islamic emblem on the flag with a graphic representing the Group B standings in the FIFA World Cup. The US says it did so “to demonstrate support for the women in Iran fighting for basic rights.” This amounts to interference in the affairs of a sovereign state, but the US as a superior power is accustomed to writing its own rules of engagement with other countries of the world. And hence, it would get away with it, despite Iran and the TASNIM, the official news agency of Iran, saying that the US has violated the FIFA Charter and should be kicked out of the Qatar World Cup. Iran is slated to face off against the US today. Ahead of that encounter, the US is clearly waging a psychological war against Iran by interfering in its internal affairs. FIFA will not impose any sanctions, and thus delicately avoid getting involved in the conflict between both countries that dates back to 1980.  It will be recalled however that the Iranian team at the World Cup refused to sing their own country’s national anthem during their first World Cup game in Qatar.  The meeting between Iran and the USA today will be another “mother of all games”, a rematch of their 1998 World Cup group stage encounter which Iran won 2-1. The US may have already won the match off-pitch. 

Indeed, so political is this year’s edition of the World Cup tournament, even at the group stage level, on and off-pitch that Canelo Alvarez, the Mexican WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF super middleweight boxing champion has vowed that if he sets his eyes on Lionel Messi, he would teach him a lesson or two with his fists about how not to disrespect Mexico. Messi is accused of having pushed aside a Mexico jersey with his left foot as he tried to take off his shoes after a Group C match in which Argentina slammed Mexico 2- 0.  Messi’s fans have said that the incident was inadvertent, but Alvarez says he is keeping his fists waiting for Messi. Lionel Messi may be good at playing football, and he has done well for his country in Qatar, matching Diego Maradona’s record but I doubt if his lithe frame can take one small, punch from Alvarez’s big fist! When politics and emotions are mixed with sports, the outcome can be very dangerous. Indeed, in July 1970, El Salvador and Honduras went to war – the Soccer War or the 100-Hour War - over a World Cup qualifying match, triggered by underlying conflicts between both countries.

The World would also forever remember the Captain of the Colombian team in the USA ‘94 World Cup, Andreas Escobar, who scored an own goal and caused Colombia’s early exit from that World Cup.  He was the other Escobar. There was Pablo Escobar, not a relation of his, a blood-thirsty drug warlord who was hunted down by the police and murdered. Andres’s offence was that he scored an own goal. Six bullets were pumped into his back at the El Indio nightclub in Medellin, later described as revenge action by gangsters who made heavy losses betting on Colombia at the World Cup. “Football,” as I wrote previously, is “worse than opium”. This year, last weekend, riots broke out in Belgium and the Netherlands, after Morocco, the Atlas Lions, handed the Belgium National team a 2- 0 defeat in a Group F match. A car was burnt down in Brussels. There was violence in Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and Brussels. The police had to use water cannons to disperse crowds and enforce some arrests.     

All of this drama about the 2022 World Cup in Qatar notwithstanding, I suspect that what would be remembered hereafter, would not necessarily be the attendant politics, but football itself, and how dominant it is as a game. The tournament is still at the group stage level at the time of this writing, but we have seen much to compel the view that this is turning out to be a remarkable event. History is being made, and it is becoming obvious that there are no underdogs on the pitch. All the 32 participating countries are in Qatar to make a statement and quite a few have been able to do so. Almighty teams, tipped to be potential winners have been humiliated by smaller teams on the FIFA ranking table. Could anyone ever imagine that Saudi Arabia would beat Argentina, 2- 1? But it happened. The King of Saudi Arabia himself found the feat so unbelievable, he had to declare a national holiday to celebrate the achievement. It doesn’t matter how Saudi Arabia fares in this World Cup, it is firmly on record that Saudi Arabia humiliated Argentina! The second major upset after this was the spectacle of Morocco beating Belgium, 2- 0. 

The victory was such a major upset it caused riots in Belgium and the Netherlands!  In a Group E opener, Germany lost to Japan in a 2 -1 upset. Germany, a football superpower, is now alive, after managing to force a draw with Spain. It now faces a must win match against Costa Rica, as it confronts the prospect of finishing bottom of its group as happened in the 2018 World Cup. Another: Canada was beaten 4-1 on Sunday night by Croatia, but it managed to score its first World Cup goal through Alphonso Davies. Canada may exit the World Cup but what the team has achieved so far- that one goal, within 67 seconds, the country’s first at the World Cup was enough to keep the pubs open in Canada on Sunday. The World Cup is a place to make history, and many are in it for the special experience and the opportunities it offers. Wales showed up in Qatar this year, the first time in 64 years. It would be difficult for Wales to reach the last 16, from Group B, sitting at the bottom of the Group, having played a draw against the USA, beaten by Iran 0 – 2, and now having to face England tomorrow.    

At least one commentator has attributed the determination and the revolt against traditional assumptions that we have seen on display at this World Cup to money: the fact that the FIFA World Cup is one of the biggest prizes in sports – the total prize money in Qatar 2022 is about 440 US million dollars, $40 million more than the previous World Cup in 2018. The winner of the tournament will walk away with $42 million. For participating at all, every team will get a minimum of $9 million. The clubs whose players are at the World Cup would get a largesse of $209 million to be distributed across the world. The referees at the tournament will get a base fee of $70, 000 and $3, 000 for every match that they oversee. FIFA already gave every participating nation $1.5 million to aid preparations.  But I don’t think what defines the World Cup is money no matter how high the paycheck is, although it must also be admitted that host country Qatar is set to cash out big time!  It is something more: the thrill of participation, nationalism and the opportunity to be on the world stage. 

The kind of energy that has been put into the game is further demonstrated even by the African teams: Ghana showing that it truly deserves a place in the sun: see what the Black Stars did in the match against Portugal on Nov. 24. They lost 3- 2, but they were formidable. In their match against South Korea, yesterday they fought like true stars, and recorded an impressive win, beating South Korea 3-2!  Before then, Morocco trounced Belgium 2-0. Cameroun forced a draw with Serbia, 3-3 in an explosive, thrilling, entertaining encounter. Serbia was leading 3-1, but the Cameroonians roared like lions and cancelled out the deficit.  Senegal lost to the Netherlands, 0-2, but they defeated Qatar, 1-3. They have survived to fight again today when they meet Ecuador. Tunisia has not done badly so far also at the World Cup. They played a draw with Denmark, in Group D, and lost to Australia, 0 -1. Their next match is against France on Wednesday. France has so far been a dominant defending champion. Les Blues are proving unstoppable, but this is again a World Cup like no other where underdogs are taking on the traditional champions and burying established reputations. The aggregate gainer is football, and the fact that football has become effectively a science, rather than 22-men running up and down, looking for the goal post. What I have been watching, to speak for myself, since the World Cup began in Qatar on November 20 looks to me like an interplay of artistry, science, and individual talent. It is a glorious testament to the capacity of the human mind and body, and how the world continually reinvents itself in time and space. The underlying and perhaps overt political and ideological currents speak to the inequalities and dissensions at the centre of geo-politics which in the long run are unresolvable given the balance of powers. 

But for giving us an opportunity to laugh and get entertained beyond the perils of COVID-19, high inflation, cost of living crisis, and the doomsday predictions of economists, the World Cup is serving a great purpose at an appropriate time. When last, did the entire world laugh and cry along the full emotional spectrum therapeutically, over something as refreshing as sports, the interplay of talents, emotions and national pride? COVID-19 blocked our joys. The World Cup is setting our emotions free. And so, as the beat goes on, let the games continue, and may the best team triumph.   

On October 16, 2022, former Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state handed over power at a colourful ceremony attended by big wigs of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and others to Mr. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, the former Secretary to the Ekiti State Government who emerged as Governor-elect in the state’s June 18 Governorship election. Fayemi had completed his maximum two terms as Governor. He served as Governor, 2010 -2014, and also from October 2018 to October 2022. In-between, he was Nigeria’s Minister of Solid Minerals Development. But since his departure in October, it may be correct to say that Ekiti has not been able to settle down to governance.  

The shadow of the past hangs ominously over the present, complicating the crisis that we have seen in the difficulty of appointing/electing a new Speaker for the Ekiti State House of Assembly. Students of Nigeria’s democratic process would readily admit that this is nothing new: getting a new Speaker for a State House of Assembly is always a war-like venture. The House of Assembly, the legislative assembly in the states, performs an oversight function over governments at that level, in addition to making good laws for good governance in defence of the people’s interest.  But this is also precisely why governors, Godfathers and other stakeholders are perpetually interested in the leadership of the legislature. No reasonable Governor or his Godfathers would ever allow the legislature to fall into the hands of contrarian figures who in a moment or dangerous self-assertiveness could plot against the Executive arm and wrong-foot the Governor by holding him to ransom, impeach him or make it impossible for him to govern.  

In a more recent case in Edo State, police had to take over the Edo State House of Assembly as the members fought for control. For more than two years, 14 elected lawmakers were shut out of the Assembly by their own colleagues. The ensuing drama was sordid, ugly, unbelievable. One fateful morning in August 2020, some unknown persons who have remained unknown two years after the fact, removed the entire roof of the State House of Assembly, and made away with the legislative Mace. There were stories of impeachments and counter impeachments. At the time, Governor Godwin Obaseki had left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and was seeking re-election on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).   Similar dramas had been enacted elsewhere since 1999. In Plateau State for example, five Speakers of the House of Assembly were either impeached or forced to resign at various times between 2000 and 2021. 

In Kogi, Plateau, Imo (four Speakers in three years!), Ebonyi and Enugu and elsewhere, the impeachment of the Speaker has been used as a crude weapon to keep the legislature in check and remind members of the legislature that they are not as independent as the Constitution makes them to be.  The sociology of the power game is such that the leadership of the State House of Assembly is expected to be absolutely loyal to the Governor and his power bloc within the state, and that includes the Governor’s Godfathers, supporters and even family members.  The State House of Assembly is expected to do whatever the Governor and his people want not to act as a watchdog, barking from the pages of the Constitution.  To show how serious this is, it is important to note that in 2015, the Ebonyi State House of Assembly was set ablaze due to disagreements between the Executive and the legislature. Governors do not fold their arms once they perceive any form of assertiveness from the House so as not to have the ugly experience of impeachment as had happened in Bayelsa and Oyo States. The legislative arm of government in Nigeria since the First Republic has indeed been an arena for chaos, motor park politics, scuffles, rancour and free for all fights. It is worse today, and it promises to get even more problematic. 

The latest under the present dispensation is the on-going drama in the Ekiti State House of Assembly.  Following the death of the former Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, Hon. Funminiyi Afuye, 66, from Ikere Constituency 1, on October 19, 2022, the leaders of the APC in Ekiti State, comprising former APC Governors Kayode Fayemi, former Governor Niyi Adebayo, now Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Chairman of the party, Paul Omotoso and the incumbent Governor, Abiodun Oyebanji had resolved that the unfinished tenure of Afuye, should be completed by someone from his South Senatorial District, precisely Emure Constituency,  in order to preserve the slot for the people of that area. The leaders therefore anointed Mrs Bunmi Adelugba as Afuye’s successor. This is ironic considering the fact that the elected deputy Governor, Monisade Afuye is from the same political constituency as the late Speaker of the House, although not a relation of his. Nigeria’s power sharing calculus and political arrangements can be utterly befuddling, and political godfathers thrive on this.

But as it turned out on the floor of the House, the Clerk of the House provided ballot papers, and rejected the voice vote proposed by the elders, and during the vote, instead of a coronation as ordered by the powers-that-be, the Clerk announced two candidates – Aribisogan and Adelugba. The Clerk said members would vote using the ballot papers. Aribisogan who had in fact been mandated after a meeting with all the 25 members of the House to nominate and support Hon Olubunmi Adelugba, emerged the eventual winner. The elders and the party felt betrayed.  They refused to recognize him. Aribisogan has quite some history as a perpetual outlier. He got into the House of Assembly in June 2015 on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). For always trying to assert himself, he was suspended from the House from 2016 – October 11, 2018, under the then Governor Ayo Fayose administration. In 2019, he defected to the APC and returned to the House when Fayemi became Governor for a second term under the platform of the APC. In the on-going drama, he and his supporters are again in the eye of the storm. 

Yesterday, six days after he assumed the Speakership of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, he was impeached by a 17-member majority. He and 6 others were immediately suspended that is: Gboyega Aribisogan (Ikole 1), Tajudeen Akingbolu (Ekiti West 1), Goke Olajide (Efon) Yemisi Ayokunle (Ekiti Southwest 1), Adeyemi Raphael Ajibade (Moba 1) , Kemi Balogun (Ado 1), and Tope Ogunleye (Ilejemeje). They were suspended without pay with immediate effect. They were further barred from getting anywhere close to 1.5 km radius of the premises of the House of Assembly Complex. The suspended members were also asked to hand over properties of the government in their possession and should they wish to be reabsorbed, they must write a letter of apology to the leadership of the House! 

The lawmakers promptly elected a new Speaker, Rt. Hon. Olubunmi Adelugba, as dictated by the powers-that-be. The House also immediately passed the Supplementary Budget for the state, and assigned the 2023 Budget to the Appropriation Committee. One of Aribisogan’s crimes was that he blocked the passage of the 2022 Supplementary Appropriation Bill., in addition to he and his gang, “causing disaffection, tension and apprehension… and importing hoodlums armed with dangerous weapons into the gallery and chambers of the complex.”  It was said that in fact on Monday, November 14, Hon. Aribisogan and his men brought juju men to the Ekiti State House of Assembly at 2 am! Rt. Hon. Olubunmi Adelugba, yesterday’s beneficiary of the Ekiti chaos, is now the first female Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly since the return to democracy in 1999. Immediately after her election, Mrs.  Adelugba led all her colleagues, the ones not suspended, to the state secretariat of the APC, to officially report to party leaders of the APC in Ekiti State!

What is on display in Ekiti State is absolute tyranny. Ekiti is currently a one-party state. All the members of the State House of Assembly, now 25 after Afuye’s death are members of the APC. But nobody is allowed to have an independent opinion. The party dictates everything, and this is the misfortune that Aribisogan and gang have suffered. I have no dog in their fight, but I assume that for Nigeria’s democracy to grow, it must be possible at both Federal and sub-national levels to allow an interplay of ideas and to allow those who have oversight roles to do their bit without the imposition of portions by party leaders. I am particularly shocked that Kayode Fayemi’s name is being mentioned in connection with the current confusion in Ekiti State, confusion yes, because we may not have heard the last details of it. 

After serving as Governor, and as a Federal Minister, what else could Kayode Fayemi be looking for? He is capable of defending himself as robustly as he chooses – I know that – but I guess it is utterly beneath him to behave like the typical Nigerian politician, who after leaving office behaves like a man without a second address.  Fayemi should allow Oyebanji to sink or swim on his own steam. He should move on, and let the new players in Ekiti write their own testimonials. He should avoid being dragged into the emerging mess in Ekiti. If he is bored, let him write another book. If he doesn’t want that, let him go on a vacation with Bisi Fayemi, the woman who has stood by him through thick and thin. If that is not enough, let him throw himself into the campaign of the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I understand that may be a bit tough, Tinubu having been surrounded by an evil-minded band of blood-thirsty sharks, sycophants, and intellectual shamanists, but that team can be oxygenated with a few brilliant persons like Fayemi.  It is time to rise above this village, ara-oke, back of beyond politics. 

Fayemi should remember Aribisogan’s swan song. He said on television: “The majority of members of Assembly voted for me but few of them who felt perhaps I did not follow the directive of the former Governor, Dr. Fayemi thought that they would make the state ungovernable for even the administration. I didn’t have any quarrel with him. I sent a message to him even last night asking: What is happening? Am I no longer one of your loyalists? Why did you not congratulate me? Up till now that I’m speaking, he has not done anything. Otherwise, he has been going around calling our members to go and impeach me tomorrow. That is the truth.”  

As of this moment, Aribisogan already has all the answers that he seeks. Let him deal with the truth.  It should be of interest to him in particular that former Governor Fayemi has already tried to explain his role in the matter, speaking yesterday through one Ahmad Sajoh of his Abuja Media Office who said: “Fayemi Had No Hand In The Impeachment of Ekiti Speaker”. As he puts it: “We note the allegation by the former Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, Mr. Gboyega Aribisogan, that his impeachment was masterminded by Dr. Kayode Fayemi, the immediate past Governor of the State. We wish to clarify that Dr. Fayemi had nothing to do with the removal of the former Speaker by his peers as this was the internal arrangement of the State House of Assembly. We wish to note that even as Governor, Dr. Fayemi did not interfere with the independence of the House and respected the principle of separation of powers of where the House had freedom to decide on their internal affairs.” 

Please, please, and please: even if Fayemi has his hand, nose, legs, mouth and full chest in the matter, do we expect him to say so?  Our concern is that the people of Ekiti State do not deserve to be held down by the politics of ego and difference. They deserve better. Ekiti has a very poor population. It is one of the smallest states in Nigeria. It is also one of the poorest. Ekiti is in need of development and leadership. The earlier Oyebanji began to focus on that, the better. On the day of his inauguration on October 16, 2022, he promised to run an all-inclusive government that would guarantee prosperity, abundance, unity and equity and transform Ekiti into a microcosm of development. He needs to be reminded of all those promises in case he has forgotten so soon. The people of Ekiti deserve good governance, not noise, chaos and ego conflicts. 

The 22^nd edition of the FIFA football World Cup currently taking place in Qatar, the first-ever edition of the World Cup in the Middle East, is causing so much self-inflicted catarrh in the Western media due to the attempt by that wing of media practice to do everything possible to discredit the hosting of the World Cup by the Middle Eastern country. It has been said that Qatar “bought” the World Cup for sports-washing purposes, or that it is all about the money, and questions have been raised about LGBTQ+ rights, the treatment of migrant workers, human rights records of the Qatari government and the legitimacy of the entire event in the desert.  

On Sunday, the games began. FIFA had warned before then that everyone should focus on the sports – football, not politics. In the end, I think what would be played up would be the hypocrisy of the West, and how the game itself would drown out every other ancillary matter and create a history of its own, which is already the case. What we may well remember hereafter is not the hypocrisy of the West but the special moments of the tournament.  On Sunday, the BBC practically ignored the opening ceremony of the World Cup. Major European countries have vowed not to show the matches in public places. Celebrities like Morgan Freeman and David Beckham who chose to identify with the Qatar World Cup have been vilified. But when it suits them, European leaders in the UK and France do business with Qatar. They even collect gifts from its rulers. They run to the country to look for gas supplies or to sell arms. We live most certainly in an unequal world where some countries believe that they can set standards for others as it suits them. In hosting this year’s World Cup, the Qataris are insisting on their own standards and sticking to them, on their own terms, putting a fresh accent on Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and Edward W. Said’s prognostications in his book, Culture and Imperialism.  

The Qataris have insisted that nobody can drink beer or alcohol anywhere within the perimeters of the stadiums. Beer or no beer, history is already being made. Qatar is now in the history books as the first host country to lose an opening match. Yesterday, England walloped Iran 6-2.  The Iran team refused to sing their country’s national anthem in protest. They are obviously in Qatar for politics not football. Mane-less Senegal got beaten 0- 2 by the Netherlands. The last time Wales was in the World Cup was 1958. Yesterday evening, it was Wales 1- USA – 1. Football is worse than opium. 

One of the major problems that we have had to contend with since the return to civilian rule in 1999, and even long before then in previous electoral cycles and subsequently – 1959, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 more notably, has been the spectre of electoral violence - in the form of killings, attacks, assault, assassination, affray, before during and after elections. In 1965, following the assembly elections in the South West, Nigeria recorded a blow out of violent attacks, characterized in some of the reports as “We tie” or the “Wild Wild West”. It was standard practice in the First Republic for major political parties and leaders to engage the services of thugs, otherwise known as “able-bodied men”. Their job was to protect political leaders, and help rig the votes on election day. This became an established pattern in Nigeria’s elections, which are regarded more by the stakeholders not as a democratic process but war by another name. In 1983, during the Second Republic, there was post-election violence in Ondo State, involving Adekunle Ajasin and Akin Omoboriowo, the ugliness of which is fully captured in Dare Babarinsa’s book on the matter – House of War (2003). The Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) reports that 100 people were killed in election-related violence in 2003, 300 in 2007., and 800 in 2011. 

Both the state and the political establishment participated in the promotion of this ugly phenomenon, so badly that it became a standard feature of Nigerian politics. Many of the thugs would eventually after the elections show up as persons of influence, having been rewarded generously by their paymasters with state largesse including political appointments or the Chairmanship of Road Transport Workers Associations, or the management of motor park garages where they run alternative tax collection systems which are deliberately overlooked by the state. Many of the political thugs who do not get rewarded for their efforts or who fall out with the leaders within their cells end up becoming criminals, or a threat to the established order to the extent that there is a connection between Nigerian politics and the criminal underworld. It is for this reason that every election season, politicians are constantly told to eschew violence, and they are made to pledge commitments to uphold reason, decency and civility. 

In 2014, Nigeria witnessed ahead of the 2015 general elections, the emergence of a non-governmental organization, the National Peace Committee led by former Head of State, General Abdusalami Abubakar, and Bishop of the Catholic Church of Nigeria, Matthew Hassan Kukah. Today, the leadership of the NPC has been further expanded, and is far more representative of the influential class. Some of the leaders include the Sultan of Sokoto, HRH Sa’ad Abubakar III, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Mr. Femi Otedola, Dame Priscilla Kuye, Archbishop Nicholas Okoh, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, John Momoh, Idayat Hassan, Gen. Martin Agwai (rtd) and Justice Rose Ukeje (rtd). Their core mandate has been the promotion of peace, justice and since 2014, the body has consistently ensured that political gladiators commit themselves to a peace accord, long before the elections. The NPC monitors compliance with the accord. It serves as a strong moral voice in political seasons that are  ever so likely to descend into rancour, hatred and bitterness. 

In September 2022, ahead of the flag-off of campaigns for Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, the NPC announced that all the 18 political parties on the ballot would sign two peace accords. The first Peace Accord was signed at the International Conference Centre, Abuja on Thursday, September 29, at a ceremony attended by the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Action Alliance (AA) and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).  In a communique dated September 22, 2022, the National Peace Committee announced that “2023 is more than an election. It is an opportunity to serve Nigeria, to defend Nigeria and to uphold her unity and progress…Nigerians should avoid the spread of fake news and uphold the principles tolerance, respect, civility and decency in all public and private conversations and engagements about election and the progress of Nigeria..All political actors, especially their publicity agents and media advisers, should shun personal attacks, avoid insults and incitements; reject the spread of fake news and commit to issue-based campaigns and political rallies in the upcoming 2023 general elections”.

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While the NPC may wield only moral influence, its regular signposting of the importance of non-violent conduct is nonetheless important. Over the years, there have also been concrete efforts to deal with the menace of electoral violence in the relevant laws. In this regard, Part VII of the Electoral Act 2022 deals specifically with “Electoral Offences” which include acts of violence, and the penalties for infractions duly stated therein.  It is also on record that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has continued to advocate for the establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission which would place the proper spotlight on electoral offences, reduce the burden on INEC to prosecute electoral offenders, and ensure that electoral offences are dealt with expeditiously.  The advocacy for an Electoral Offences Commission has a long history of its own. It must be noted that INEC is one of the strongest supporters of the current “Bill for an Act to Establish the National Electoral Offences Commission and Related Matters 20222”, which was presented for public hearing by the House of Representatives in August 2022. INEC says it wants more successful prosecution of electoral offenders.  The Bill was opposed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) which argued that there are already existing bureaucracies that can deal with electoral offences. 

The facts suggest otherwise. Existing institutions and bureaucracies have proved incapable of dealing with electoral offences and particularly, the threat and menace of violence. INEC is right with its proposal that there is a need to provide a special framework for electoral offences and the necessary structures to bring those who violate the democratic process to book, no matter how highly placed they may be. It must be admitted that there are certain elements among us in high and low places who do not believe in the idea of Nigeria, who lack the milk of human kindness and decency and who will stop at nothing to place their personal interests/ambition above the country. They simply don’t care. The key target of the electoral process should be to stop such people, and rescue the country from their demonic grips. There is more than enough evidence to prove that this is not one of those lamentation odes. The biggest threat to the 2023 general elections is the threat of violence. The political parties may have signed the aforementioned Peace Accord, but the reality is that they have not seen any reason to imbibe the spirit of the accord. There are laws in place to check electoral violence, but the political gladiators think that it is business as usual. Our fear is that it could get worse, and things could get out of control. The worst part is that the security agencies appear helpless and confused, and that is why they are beginning to sound like preachers!  

As at the time of this writing, less than 102 days to the general elections, starting with the Presidential elections on February 23, 2023, I repeat that the threat of violence is the biggest challenge that we all face. INEC has had to lament that 242 polling units in 10 Local Government Areas of Katsina State are at risk due to insecurity. The electoral body has also proposed that it could relocate the voters elsewhere, but even if that option is convenient for INEC, the question to ask is whether or not that would not lead to voter apathy or constructive, inadvertent disenfranchisement of many voters. It is not Katsina alone. INEC has also been a victim of nature-induced violence in many parts of the country, where as a result of floods, many of its offices have been submerged and many facilities destroyed. But the more critical problem would seem to be the organized attacks on INEC offices. In the past week, there were two major incidents: the attack on the INEC office at Iyana Mortuary in Abeokuta South Local Government in Ogun State. The office was set ablaze, reportedly by eight, unidentified persons, and perhaps unidentifiable persons who threw bread soaked in petrol into the INEC premises and lit a bonfire. About the same time in Osun State, a similar group also set the INEC office on fire. The loss is extensive. In Abeokuta, eight generating sets were damaged. Over 65, 600 Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), 904 ballot boxes, 57 election bags 29 voting cubicles were either stolen or destroyed!   In Osun state, the resident electoral commissioner, Dr. Mutiu Agboke has said that despite the attack on the INEC office in Ede South LGA, the commission’s sensitive materials are still intact.  What is clear, however, is that some law-breakers are out there trying to instill fear in INEC as well as voters and sabotage the electoral process. If this trend continues, the entire 2023 elections will be derailed! INEC needs help. 

The political parties are also in trouble. Since September 28 when the campaigns began, Nigerian politicians have been behaving as if this is truly a rumble in the jungle, a Darwinian, apocalyptic struggle for survival. The route to the 2023 general elections in Nigeria has become a season for thugs and architects of violence. The Labour Party, for example has had cause to complain about the harassment of its supporters in Ebonyi, Nasarawa, Katsina and Lagos States. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has protested about attacks on its members and supporters in Kaduna, Port Harcourt, Zamfara and Maiduguri. Other political parties have had cause to complain about how they are denied the opportunity to paste posters or erect billboards or even gain access to the media especially in those states where incumbent Governors insist that the opposition would not be allowed to campaign. This amounts to a violation of the law, but they get way with it. What is even more disturbing is the rise of hate speech and the politics of intolerance perpetrated electronically by a peculiar group of social media bandits who speak without thinking, attack without any iota of civility, and who damage their candidates without sparing a thought for their own vulnerabilities.

The more saddening part of this narrative is that the security agencies appear to be helpless. At a recent meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Electoral Security (ICCES), the National Security Adviser (NSA), Gen. Baba Gana Monguno (rtd) confirmed the seriousness of the situation when he disclosed that with 52 cases of electoral violence in 22 states in one month, it was clear that some hoodlums were ready to derail the election. He should know. He is National Security Adviser.  At that event and elsewhere, the security agencies continue to promise that they are “on top of the situation” and that anybody who tries to derail the elections at any stage will be summarily dealt with. But can we trust the security agencies? In Maiduguri, Borno State, the recent attack on the PDP convoy was recorded by journalists who were present at the scene, but the Borno Police Command came out openly to declare that what had become open evidence was fake news. Did the Borno State Police Commissioner attend the Senior Police Officers Retreat in Owerri where President Muhammadu Buhari, before he jetted out for two weeks, admonished police officers to be neutral and professional in the discharge of their duties in the 2023 elections. Mr Commissioner Abdu Umar was probably there and he dozed off when the President was making that point! Many of these guys sleep on duty anyway. And that is why they tell shameless lies. The Borno State Police Commissioner should be summoned by the Inspector General of Police.

We need all the security agencies to be awake and alive as we move towards the 2023 general elections. The country’s security chiefs should stop lamenting and preaching. They should do their work, professionally, and stop whining.  

This is turning out to be a horrible year, with the latest house of horror news that now defines Nigeria being the report of a young lady who jumped to her death a few days ago on the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos. Ms Adetutu Adedokun was said to have been a staff of the Department of State Services (DSS). She had only recently been promoted for her sterling performance at work as an unarmed combat operative in her set. In addition to the promotion at work, she got affianced.  Beautiful young lady, doing well at work and in her private life. Then everything came to an abrupt stop. 

The key story that we have heard is that the Uber driver taking her from the Mainland to the Island said she was quarrelling with her fiancée on the phone, before she asked him to stop the car and she jumped into the lagoon. It is shameful that even the security agencies have been promoting this narrative. One of the problems with the security agencies in this country is that they lack the capacity for intelligence gathering and investigation. They find it too easy to adopt a simple story that is often most suited for pepper soup joints. Suicide is sad. It is an irreversible act of violence against the self. It raises questions about our mortality and why people decide to end it all. More than 72 hours after Ms Adedokun, an officer of the state, died, there have been no solid leads from the state authorities. Not even from the DSS she worked for.  

Her death raises more questions in need of enquiry. Who is the Uber driver in question? Why was he so quick to offer an explanation and identify a suspect? Is it standard practice for Uber drivers to eavesdrop on their passengers’ phone conversations? Why did the Uber driver stop the vehicle when he was asked to do so, when there is certainly no bus stop on the Third Mainland Bridge? The Uber driver in this case must not be allowed to go. He must tell the security agencies what he knows. Another question: is it likely that there is a linkage between Ms Adedokun’s work and promotion and her sudden death? What secret state matters was she working on before her death? Where is her fiancee? Has he been called in for questioning?  

 In recent times, more women have committed suicide in Nigeria. Is there a gender explanation? Before Adetutu Adedokun, there was Afolake Abiola, the Globacom Chartered Accountant. When these incidents occur, we express sorrow. The security agencies do nothing and we all wait till another person dies. Not good enough. Every case of alleged suicide must be thoroughly investigated to establish the truth.

A week ago, President Muhammadu Buhari travelled out of the country on a two-week medical vacation. He is expected back in the country next week. As has been the pattern since he assumed office in 2015, and he travelled on medical vacation eight months later, Nigerians again this time around raised the same concerns about why our leaders are always travelling abroad for medical reasons – they have failed to develop the medical infrastructure at home. In a country that used to be a medical tourism destination for persons as far away as the Middle East in the 70s, it is true that what we now have in the health sector in Nigeria is shameful, indeed the entire social sector is disgraceful. Despite the fact that we have some of the best brains and most talented people in the world, our leaders have to travel abroad for even simple procedures such as tooth ache, because they have failed to provide an enabling environment in Nigeria for excellence.

One senior citizen once told me that an expert who was described as the best in a particular medical field was recommended to him a few years ago, but he would have to go to South Africa to meet the particular specialist.  He packed his bags, hopped on to a plane, and headed out. When he got to the South African hospital, the specialist that he was directed to see was a Nigerian. He protested that he did not travel all the way to come and see a Nigerian doctor. He had to be reminded that if he wanted the best consultant for his medical condition, he had better submit himself to the Nigerian! This is not an apocryphal tale: it is a fitting description of what has happened to Nigeria in virtually all fields of human endeavour be it sports or prostitution. 

Hence, when the issue of the President travelling again for medical reasons came up, I thought we had been on this matter for too long. One, his handlers have told us that he had been consulting doctors in the United Kingdom long before he became Nigerian President, and that it would be unfair to expect him to change his doctors for populist reasons. His health has indeed been an issue, prompting many Nigerians to insist that given the experience of Presidential illness under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and now under President Muhammadu Buhari, presidential aspirants must be made to submit their certificates of medical fitness before aspiring to the highest office in the land. Since 2015, President Buhari has spent over 212 days abroad for medical reasons. In 2017 alone, he first travelled for 50 days, and then went back a second time for 104 days. In-between, the President has travelled for various periods of six, 15 or 12 days, and longer, with his trips having to be extended on more than one occasion. 

I have had cause to argue that Presidents are human beings too. They can fall sick like other human beings. They and their families would also want them alive, and may seek medical care where they hope they can get the best. Besides, the President is 79. When Nigerians vote for an elderly man as President, they should very well expect that certain things come with old age, even if young men can also fall sick. The thing about democracy is that how a people choose their leaders has its direct consequences. To the delight of his family and supporters, however, President Buhari has managed to find the strength to remain on his feet and do two terms in office.  In another 100 days, his successor would most likely have been known and he’d begin to pack out of the Presidential Villa. A new President would be sworn in, and he and his family would pack their own bags into the many rooms in the Villa. Nigerians would be left with the pains and gains of the Buhari administration. I hope we have learnt our lessons. 

But there would be one lingering matter, to cut a long story short: how the Buhari administration handled the matter of presidential absence. We have seen in this regard, under this administration routine violations of the Constitutional order so frequently, we simply got used to it. It is an aberration that should not continue because it amounts to utter disregard for the rule of law. Every President takes an oath of office to defend the rule of law and the Constitution. The office of the Attorney General of the Federation exists to guide the government of the day about the constitutional order. When a government breaks the law, no matter how small, it is unacceptable from a principled stand. As Presidential candidates are now busy on the campaign trail, one question that they must be asked is whether or not in the event of absence from office, they would be willing to hand over power to their Vice President as required by law. Here is what the law says: 

Section 145(1): “Whenever the President is proceeding on vacation or is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, he SHALL transmit a written declaration to the president of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to that effect, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, the Vice President shall perform the functions of the President as Acting President”.

This is a very clear, unambiguous and direct constitutional provision. Lawyers understand that when the words used in the Constitution are clear and unambiguous, they must be interpreted in a literal sense.  The use of the word “shall” by the framers of the Constitution also means that the command of the law is obligatory, not discretionary. Whereas Section 5 of the Constitution vests Executive powers in the President, the same constitution in parts defines circumstances under which he cannot exercise absolute powers or attempt to rewrite the law, and one of those regards has to do with when he is absent from office, or incapacitated or he dies. Indeed, Section 145 (2), goes further on the matter of Presidential absence thus: “In the event that the President is unable or fails to transmit the written declaration mentioned in subsection (1) of this section within 21 days, the National Assembly shall, by a resolution made by a simple majority of the vote of each House of the National Assembly, mandate the Vice President to perform the functions of the office of the President as Acting President until the President transmits a letter to the President of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives that he is now available to resume his functions as President”. 

There is nowhere in the extant law that the Constitution says that the President of Nigeria can leave town as he wishes without informing the National Assembly formally and without transferring authority to the Vice President. This created a constitutional crisis in 2010 during the Yar’Adua Presidency when in the face of the terminal illness of President Yar’Adua, and eventual death, the country was left in limbo. The country was dragged through needless tension and controversy as a result. The case has been different under President Buhari because each time he chooses to go AWOL on Nigerians, he still returns, and we all carry on nevertheless, but this does not make his violation of the law excusable. It must be further remembered that President Buhari’s legal advisers have consistently thrown him under the bus by giving him wrong legal advice with regard to either court rulings or the Constitution. The President of Nigeria cannot be above the laws of the land, the same laws that he is sworn to protect under the seventh schedule of the 1999 Constitution. 

It is on record that the President has only transmitted power formally to the Vice President twice since 2015 – in 2016 when he proceeded on a 10-day vacation, and once in 2018. Since then, the President simply travels when he wants to and returns as he wishes on either official or private trips. Where the trip is official such as attendance at international conferences, state or working visits, the absence is understandable, but when the President travels for medical reasons for a much longer period, and he is not on duty, he is duty bound to hand over officially to his Deputy. The argument that the President of Nigeria can go away for two or three weeks for private reasons, and govern Nigeria from a remote location amounts to bending the law on its head.  He is not allowed to go away without leave or to embark on a frolic of his own. He cannot transfer power by word of mouth either. He must put it in writing. He must be accountable to the Nigerian people. 

Nigerians are even more rightly concerned because the present National Assembly lacks the spine or the moral courage to invoke Section 145(2) of the Constitution. This is a National Assembly that is an extension of the Presidential Villa and whose leaders openly confess their loyalty to the Executive arm of government. Some of our lawmakers even go about claiming that they are “adopted sons and daughters” of President Buhari. Is that why they must always look the other way? In more decent societies, their constituencies will demand concrete proof of their adoption!  Or “abduction?” And even that does not justify the cherry-picking approach to the rule of law under this administration, which ironically has a lot to show in the area of law reforms and significant legislation, but when it comes to the constitutional order, problems abound.

One reason that has been given is that Vice President Osinbajo cannot be trusted because of the way he “behaved” when in 2018, the President respected the Constitution and formally handed over power to him. It is alleged that he started behaving as if the President would not return. His handlers began to project him as a better alternative. They were all over the media “selling” Osinbajo as a healthier, more energetic, more people-friendly alternative. It was said that the Vice President even had the temerity to sack the Director General of the Department of State Security, a man from Katsina, the President’s own kinsman. To worsen matters, a group of Yoruba leaders visited Osinbajo in the Presidential Villa in Buhari’s absence!  That was the last time his principal formally sent any letter to the National Assembly whenever he was away. There are certain forces in the corridors of power who have never forgiven Professor Osinbajo for openly showing enthusiasm or ambition. 

This was confirmed when he tried to run for the Presidency on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2022. They led him on and stopped him. What we are dealing with is one of the major omissions in the Nigerian Constitution which does not assign any concrete roles to Deputies either at the state or Federal level. A Deputy Governor or a Vice President is considered “a spare tyre”, to be kept to a side of the vehicle and can only be called to service whenever there is an emergency. When such emergencies occur, it must not be because the spare tyre, jumped out of its place on its own volition, to cause havoc. Vice President Osinbajo is useful when he is called upon to attend meetings and events where he is required to sound brilliant and articulate, but when it comes to the exercise of power and authority, he is closely monitored because he is not expected to do so. This is a “spare-tyre” dilemma, and it is why Nigerians must take a second look at the exercise of Executive powers. In a new Constitution, specific roles must be assigned to Deputies. The talk that “it is a joint ticket” is a foreign concept that does not work here. A Nigerian Governor or President is technically an absolute monarch. We mut correct that.     

Many Nigerians now insist on the full disclosure of the medical condition of the President, but really, it is not only in Nigeria that Presidents go extra length to hide their illnesses. Woodrow Wilson didn’t want the American public. to know that he caught the Spanish flu in 1919. Franklin D. Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and also used crutches but he downplayed his physical condition. JF Kennedy was sickly as a child and even as President, he struggled with a cocktail of ailments including chronic back pain. In 1893, President Grover Cleveland disappeared for four days to have surgery secretly on a yacht at sea to remove a tumour. This story is told in Matthew Algeo’s The President is a Sick Man. The whole idea is to project the President as a strong, healthy leader and to prevent the President’s state of health from becoming a political liability. The only difference however is that today, US Presidents do not have to travel to the sea for treatment or go into hiding as President Cleveland did in 1893.  In more contemporary times, US Presidents, with the notable exception of President Donald J. Trump have shown greater confidence in disclosing their health condition. In 1985, President Ronald Reagan transferred power to Vice President George Bush for eight hours while he underwent surgery.  In 2002 and 2007, President George W. Bush also transferred authority to VP Dick Cheney while he was admitted for a colonoscopy procedure. In November 2021, incumbent President Joe Biden transferred power to VP Kamala Harris when he was admitted into hospital for the same procedure, making her the first woman in American history to act as President even if only for 85 hours! The relevant law in the United States is Section 3 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment which is in pari materia with Section 145 (1) (2) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution.    

In Nigeria, it is usually a tug-of-war to get the President or a Governor to hand over power and authority during a period of incapacity or absence. Our problems here include ego, lack of trust, ethnicity, religion, superstition and the menace of the informal power structures in the corridors of power whose promoters tie their destiny like an umbilical cord to the survival of their patron-principal in office. Such characters would do anything and everything to subvert the rule of law. We must decry this. The next President of Nigeria must not at any time go AWOL on Nigerians out of fear, insecurity or both on the grounds of medical vacation abroad. A law-abiding President needs strong legal advisers who are committed to the supremacy of the law, not politicians who bend the law according to the changing vagaries of the weather. The consequence of wanton Presidential violations of the Constitution is impeachment, but who will dare challenge the monarch? Certainly, not a stomach-driven National Assembly. 

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Akinwunmi Braithwaite (National Rescue Movement (NRM) ) Gubernatorial Candidate

Topic: 2023 Lagos State Gubernatorial race

Date: 5TH NOVEMBER, 2022

Join Zoom Meeting

https://zoom.us/j/92877141732?pwd=VEJWb29OL2VVekZUTHRpdWYxK0xxZz09

Meeting ID: 928 7714 1732

Passcode: 600206

“My own brother!”

“What’s up men? Have you gone to deposit all the N200, N500, N1,000 notes that you have at home in the banks so you can exchange them for new notes by the deadline of January 31.”

“What is my business with depositing old notes in the banks? I don’t keep money at home. I don’t have the kind of money the Central Bank of Nigeria is looking for.”

“The CBN did not say they are looking for money. They simply want to manage money supply better. Out of about N3.7 trillion in circulation, more than N2 trillion is outside the banking system. The Central Bank wants to call in all of the N3.7 trillion, and then send it back into the system. This is something other Central Banks do every five or eight years. The last time Nigeria printed new currency notes was 20 years ago, and besides, the CBN is just doing its job.” 

“Listen to yourself. They just want N3.7 trillion brought back into the banking system. They are not looking for people who are likely to faint if they see a billion Naira cash. Did you not hear the President? He said the people they are looking for are people with illicit money. Those people who hide money inside overhead water tanks, in cemeteries and other corner-corner places. The people who speak in billions, and who cannot take their money to the banks. Government wants them to bring out the money. E no concern me. I no get any illicit money. Na dem dem.” 

“The cash component of money in circulation affects everyone. Even your small amount that you have at home, even if it is a few thousands, once it is in the N200, N500 or N1,000 denominations, you have to take it into the bank.”

“But I thought the Minister of Finance has said she is not aware of the policy and that it could have grave consequences.”

“The Minister of Finance does not know what she is talking about apparently. The CBN does not report to her. The CBN is in charge of monetary policy in line with Section 2 of the Central Bank Act of 2007. The Minister of Finance is in charge of fiscal policy, and in any case the Board of the CBN has among its members the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, and the Accountant General of the Federation.”

“But did the CBN Board discuss this plan to print new currency notes?” 

“I am not in a position to know. And well, what does it matter? The President of Nigeria has said that the CBN has his backing. Under Section 19 of the CBN Act, the Bank is required to request authorization from the President with regard to three things: its Annual Report, if it wants to invest outside Nigeria, and if it wants to make alterations to the currency. We have heard from the CBN twice that it acted within the province of the law. We have also heard the President publicly telling everyone that the CBN is in order. Please, who is Minister of Finance?”

“You mean who is the constituted authority?” 

“I leave that to you to decide”.

“But why the secrecy? Is it that these people don’t trust each other? I understand this same President did the same thing in 1984.We need proper alignment between fiscal policy and the monetary side of things”

“The country’s national currency is a matter of national security. It is not everything that you tell everybody before you take action. In this country, people are always looking for a way to cheat and game the system. If you disclose your plans, they can share with others and before you know it, your proposals will die even before they become policy.”

“Particularly those politicians who have hidden money away to do serious battle during the 2023 general election. We have seen it before: “dibo ko se obe o” meaning vote for our party and prepare a pot of soup today. Stomach infrastructure. Election sandwich. But in any case, politicians keep their money in dollars, not Naira.”

“Nigeria’s currency is the Naira, not the dollar. The dollarization of the Nigerian economy is an indication of fundamental problems in the management of our economy.”

“I will rather have dollar, please”

“But both are connected. The dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world, that is why when the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve raises rates, the effect is felt globally. Those who have money keep dollar, and buy dollar, as a wedge against the Naira, and that is why immediately after the CBN announced the plan to redesign the three currency notes, the Naira immediately depreciated in the parallel market, in less than a week, it has moved from N778 to the dollar to N865 to the dollar, with implications for inflation. This is why many economists are nervous about the cost of the policy.”    t

“Ha. What a country!”

“What is funny?”

“The way Nigerians are experts in everything…If the subject is security, everybody is a security expert, if it is a legal matter, even my mechanic would argue that he knows better than judges, and now that the matter is the redesign of the new notes, everybody is now an economist, lawyer and analyst join on top!”

“But people have a right to express opinions about something that can affect their lives. Things like cost, effect on the Naira and the foreign exchange and why now? Because of politics, government is redesigning Naira notes close to Christmas and election?”

“I know, and I think that is why Sheik Ahmad Gumi says kidnappers will start collecting ransom in dollars and that government is about to commit economic suicide by asking people to deposit their money in the banks!”

“Sheik Gumi is an educated man. He is a medical doctor, a retired Captain of the Nigerian army and a respected cleric. But is he an economist?” 

“Are you an economist?”

“I don’t go about reading the mind of kidnappers.” 

“You don’t get the point. Where were you when Primate Elijah Ayodele of the INRI Church asked President Buhari to sack the CBN Governor because the plan to redesign some dominations of the Naira will not stop terrorism or insecurity. Is that from the Bible or the Primate’s personal opinion? Ah, this country! This was how one prophetess was also quoted copiously by a section of the media saying the reason there is flood across parts of the country is because the goddess of the river is angry.”

“This thing called free speech and its dangers.”  

“Let me ask you something? Can the Banks handle the massive pressure that the rush to deposit old notes in the banks will cause? Why is the allotted time for deposit and access to new N200, N500 and N1,000 notes so short? The last time the UK changed some of its currency notes, it gave the people up to one year.” 

“I believe that is a legitimate thing to worry about. But you know your country. People will wait till the last minute before they begin to act. I think the CBN needs to do a lot more to enlighten the people. The deadline of January 31^st can still stand, then after the election, government can announce an extension. That is the way I see it.”   

“But these new notes that everybody is talking about. Will the banks pay depositors with new notes? In this country, the only place you can see new notes is at event centres during weekend parties. People hawk the Naira the way they sell serviette papers and they do so at a premium. But you go to the banks, what you can get is mutilated, smelly notes. What can the CBN do about that? The threat to this economy is not just those parallel market dealers, but the mint Naira merchants on the streets.” 

“What I know is that it is an offence to sell the Naira like a commodity, mutilate it, deface it or step on it, but nobody enforces the law.”

“But I hear this time around, EFCC has read the riot act, that anybody that is found playing hanky-panky with money will be dealt with according to the law. In fact, EFCC officers will be deployed to all banking halls to monitor how people bring in money to the banks.”

“That’s funny. How many banks can the EFCC monitor? There is a reporting mechanism in place if you do money transactions beyond certain thresholds. Banks have structures in place to inform the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) or the EFCC. They only need to deepen their infrastructure. By the way, the CBN is hoping that through this exercise, it can deepen financial inclusion and intermediation.”  

“I hear the politicians have come up with a plan to delay the redesign of the denominations.”

“Tell me.”

“I understand that there is a case in court challenging the Arabic inscriptions on the Naira notes” 

“It is called Ajami”

“Ajami or Arabic. Some lawyers are saying all that needs to be done is to get an injunction to stop the CBN because until the matter before the court is determined, the proposed redesign of the notes will be sub judice.” 

“Court?”

“Yes, court.” 

“Okay, we are here. We will see. Have you not read that the CBN will not remove the Ajami on the Naira notes? They have been on that matter since 2020. They will still be on it by the time your grandson graduates from college.” 

“Well, bros, let us drop matter. I have discussed this matter so much I am beginning to think something is wrong with me. I don’t want to die in their war. If they want to change the colour of money, let them do so. Wetin be my own? I am more concerned about the future the 2023 general elections.  INEC has announced that the voters’ register now has 93. 5 million voters and that the register would be displayed and reviewed in 8, 809 wards and 774 local government areas from Nov. 12- 25. Quite a lengthy list of voters – about 9.3 million pages long.  How do I go through that?”

“I am sure you can. But what I find interesting about the new register is the demographics: 12. 29 million new voters added to the register out of which about 2.78 million were found to be illegal registrants.”

“INEC said 23 INEC officers aided and abetted the illegal registration. Those persons must be punished!”

“I agree but talking about the demographics, I was going to say that when you look at the breakdown, the largest number of registered voters are young people between the ages of 18 – 34- that is - 76.5% of the total, followed by women – 50.8% and students – 40.8%. It is thus clear that the 2023 general election will be determined by women and youths. And the major battle grounds will be Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers and Katsina which have the highest number of voters. In general, the bulk of the voters are from the seven states of the North West. The political parties have a lot of work to do to mobilize the voters to prevent voter apathy. We must also ensure that INEC gets the Permanent Voters Cards ready for collection and that the people collect them. It is not enough for anyone’s name to be on the voter’s register. You must have your PVC and you must go out to vote on election day.”

“My own is that nobody should tamper with BVAS – the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System that will prevent rigging and manipulation on election day.  The days of multiple voting should come to an end, and it is good that INEC has promised that this piece of technology and innovation, an advancement on the smart card reader, would be fully deployed to keep the riggers out.”  

“You are correct. On point.”

“I am always on point”.

“No, not always” 

“I am on point for example to say that the Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyorchia Ayu had no point boasting that he has the powers to stop Governor Samuel Ortom’s Senatorial ambition and that of others in the Party who may be interested in other positions. He also didn’t have to boast that nobody can sack him. That is provocative. The party Chairman, no matter the provocation should always try to unify his own base and not make divisive comments” 

“A man has a right to stand up for himself. Governor Wike and his allies have been bullying Senator Ayu for months. It is now his turn to cry out and fight back.”

“We’re talking leadership. No party chairman can boast that he will stop anybody. The Electoral Act 2022 spells out clearly how an elective office seeker can be stopped. It does not give any God-like powers to the party leader. Besides, a leader is like a refuse dump.  The refuse dump does not choose which garbage they throw on it.” 

“Is that a metaphor or a proverb? You better talk straight because the young people these days are not interested in any form of round-about thinking. Don’t tell them anything about words and palm oil. No. These ones are the Shawarma generation.  They were brought up with groundnut oil, not palm oil!”

“But just see how Wike has attacked the PDP party Chairman telling him that Governor Ortom was his guarantor without whom he could not have been party Chairman. Or Governor Seyi Makinde sending a representative to a meeting between Afenifere and the APC Presidential candidate in Pa Reuben Fasoranti’s home in Akure.”

“Please, I don’t want to comment any further on that Afenifere subject. Let Afenifere resolve their own internal crisis.” 

“Afenifere is a conclave of elders. The elders will decide.”  

“This is a democracy.  They can decide for themselves as individual citizens and as persons who are entitled to one vote. But I abhor group-think, or herd mentality or any intimations of it.  People are free to endorse or not endorse whoever they want but the pillar of democracy is the right of the people to make their own informed choice, freely, without let or hindrance.”  

“I think I hear sef say that una Baba don go London again for medical check- up oh”

“My friend, are you okay?”

On September 29, the National Peace committee led by General Abdusalami Abukakar and the Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah organized an event in Abuja where Presidential candidates of the political parties for the 2023 general elections signed an accord to give peace a chance, avoid violence and respect the rule of law and order. It was meant to be the first in a series of peace-building efforts by the National Peace Committee which this year expanded its fold, by involving the participation of key figures in corporate Nigeria including Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Mr. Femi Otedola, and other leaders such as the Sultan of Sokoto, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, Mr. Sam Amuka Pemu and Justice Roseline Ukeje. Founded in 2014, the National Peace Committee has had a strong track record of reminding political gladiators that Nigerian elections or leadership contests are not a do or die phenomena, and should not be so. This is a useful message and mission statement. 

It is important, without doubt, that elections are peaceful and that politicians behave decently. In retirement, General Abdusalami Abubakar has dedicated himself to preaching about peace and stability. He offers good service in that regard. He has a good associate in Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, who in every sense, is also a patriot. The inclusion of others over the years is a welcome development, to remind everyone that elections must not result in chaos. The stakes in 2023 appear to be quite high, much higher than in previous elections, and these may well prove to be for Nigerians like no other elections since the return to civilian rule in 1999. 

It is unfortunate however and most disturbing that the politicians who signed a Peace Accord in September 2022, and their surrogates as well, are disowning the same accord by conduct, and by their utterances.  Since September when the Independent National Electoral Commission blew the whistle that campaigns could begin, in fact before then, and thereafter, there have been reports of violence, intolerance, hate speech, foul language, vitriol, abuse, harassment and general bad faith. The candidate of the Labour party, Mr Peter Obi has had to raise questions about attacks on his supporters in Enugu, Nasarawa, Ebonyi and Lagos states. In the first week of September, gunmen threatened Peter Obi’s supporters in Enugu.  The supporters were holding a meeting in Awga community. Four unknown gunmen suddenly showed up around 5.00 pm and opened fire on Obi’s supporters. They shot in the air, and disrupted an on-going meeting.  A day earlier some members of the same party were also attacked in Nenwe, in Aniniri LGA in the same Enugu State.

About a week later, Obi’s supporters were again attacked in Ebonyi state. This time, the Nigeria Police was identified as the assailants.  In a statement, the Labour Party’s National Publicity Secretary accused the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, of using the police to promote the politics of violence. To add to the evidence, in Abakaliki, Obi’s supporters were said to have been tear-gassed by the police. In October, Obi’s supporters, known as “flag boys” were also brutalized in Lagos. The flag boys were accused of carrying Peter Obi’s flags around Oshodi in Lagos, and they got beaten by thugs working for another political party. They were in fact lucky. There was an attempt to burn them alive!  In Nasarawa state, Joshua Alamu  who took part in a solidarity sensitization campaign for Peter obi was also attacked. He eneded up in the hospital. The Labour Party again issued a statement asking for protection. 

But the Labour party is not alone. When the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)) held its rally recently in Kaduna, the main issue was that the party’s supporters were attacked, and injured. Thugs reportedly invaded the venue of the rally and started beating people up. Both the PDP Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki condemned the incident. The attackers wielded swords and machetes! Before that, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah representing Anambra South in the National Assembly was also ambushed and attacked at Enugwu-Ukwu in Njikoka LGA of Anambra State.  He is seeking a Second term in office. We have also heard in this reason, reports of verbal violence, and threats by politicians. In many states of the Federation, opposition parties are not allowed to put up posters or billboards and when they do, the posters are destroyed. In Lagos State, the candidate of the PDP has had to protest that he is being targeted by the ruling APC and its henchmen. Last Saturday, the convoy of the PDP Gubernatorial candidate, Olajide Adediran and his Deputy, Funke Akindele was attacked at the Ikoga Junction area of Badagry Local Government area of Lagos State.  Some journalists and other members of the entourage sustained injuries. IN many states, the state-owned broadcast media behave m0re or less like campaign units of the ruling party in utter violation of the National Broadcasting Code.   

The growing spate of violence is a bad comment on the letter and spirit of the peace accord signed on September 19 by leaders of the political parties. It shows that our political leaders have not learnt any lessons and would stop at nothing, no matter how heinous to achieve their objectives. We have gone through this route before. Between 1999 and 2007, many politicians were killed in the lead up to election seasons. The assassinations remain unresolved, including the brutal assassination of Chief Bola Ige, a sitting Attorney General of the Federation in December 2001.  Others include Marshall Harry, chairman of the Rivers State ANPP, in 2003, Engr Funsho Williams in July 2006, Dr. Ayo Daramola, PDP Governorship aspirant in Ekiti in August 2006, Dele Arojo in Lagos, 2002, Ogbonnaya Uche, killed in his home in Owerri in 2003, Chief Aminasaoari Dikibo in October 2004, Abigail and Barnabas Igwe, in September 2002, Dipo Dina in January 2010, Odunayo Olagbaju, in December Ile Ife in 2001 and Chukwudi Okafor in Umuawukwu, Awka South, Anambra in 2009.  to name a few. Nobody deserves to die for seeking to serve his or her country or to participate in the democratic process.

Politics must not mean death or violence. It is in fact terrible that political assassinations are never resolved in this country. It is one of the reasons people refer to Nigerian politics as dirty, and why some of the best persons in society who could make a difference stay away from the political arena. The laws of the land, including the Electoral Act criminalize violence before, during and after elections, in clear affirmation that politicians and their agents must not take the law into their hands, but the reality is that Nigerian politicians think that politics is a do-or-die affair. Hence, they talk violently. They behave violently. They surround themselves with violent assistants, otherwise known as able-bodied men or thugs. Some of the thugs even bear fanciful official titles and wield such enormous influence that would be considered obscene in civilized societies. They kill. They maim. They and their masters have turned Nigerian politics into a criminal enterprise. Politicians need to know that the recruitment of these armed assistants is a double-edged sword. They could turn against you and become your source of problems. Don’t give them drugs or dangerous weapons. It turns their heads.  

The big threat as we prepare for the 2023 elections, is beyond ethnicity and religion, this criminality, that is the desperation of the political profiteers and their agents, the thinking that politics is a zero-sum game. The evidence is again writ large in the language of the politicians and the conduct of their supporters.  At the signing of the Peace Accord, the Inspector General of Police said openly that the police are ready to keep the peace and protect law and order. It is about six months to the elections and the police and other security agencies are failing the people, and the state. It is not too early to call politicians who are promoting violence directly or vicariously to order. The security agencies know the thugs, their masters and sponsors. To look the other way for selfish gain as is customary during election seasons would amount to using the state and its apparatuses to aid and abet crime. Security agents must stay away from partisan politics.  They must maintain complete neutrality otherwise 2023 could turn out as yet another blow-out moment in Nigerian history. It should be a turning point for good and that I assume, is the expectation of all who have the interest of this country at heart. The security agencies must become pro-active and take preventive measures. They must not behave like lawyers, thugs, and associates of politicians who see election season as “chop-time”.