REUBEN'S VIEWS
With the way the Independent National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (INEC) is carrying on under the watch of Professor Mahmood Yakubu as Chairman, it would take a miracle for the present Chairman of that controversial and embattled body, not to end up on the wrong side of history. Some jobs within the public space are by nature thankless regardless of efforts put in, but a job can be done so badly, what would be remembered are the ugly episodes and memories of failure. Professor Yakubu’s misfortune would be that it was in his time that the country came round to the idea that technology should be deployed as election tools, and that some of the reforms that Nigerians had been looking for should be addressed by updating the electoral framework.
In Yakubu’s time, Nigeria came up with the Electoral Act 2022, which indeed is a different kind of law, an advancement from the Electoral Act 2010. Everyone celebrated the emergence of the new Electoral Act as a game changer for Nigeria with the novel innovations about INEC’s financial independence in Section 3(3), early conduct of primaries and submission of candidates list in Section 29 (1), legal backing of electronic voting and transmission of results in Sections 47 and 50(2), overvoting redefined in Section 51, the non-eligibility of political appointees as delegates or aspirants in Section 84(12), special provisions for the physically challenged in Section 54, early commencement and longer period of campaigns in Section 94, provision for a central electronic data base in Section 99… Mahmood Yakubu’s INEC boasted that it had tested the law in the bye-elections in Osun and Ekiti and that during the then scheduled 2023 general elections, INEC would put all the reforms into effect. What have we seen? It turned out from the very beginning that the National Assembly did not understand the same law that it had enacted and the implications. The same people who enacted the law tried to change it. They didn’t succeed. Before the elections, INEC said it was ready. It put out messages about how results would be uploaded from polling units to the INEC Results Viewing Portal, real time. It said its officials were up to the task.
The details of how INEC disappointed Nigerians is well-captured by the reports of various observers, local and international, and the tsunami of litigations that have attended the elections held this year, on February 25 (Presidential and National Assembly), and March 18 (Gubernatorial and State Houses of Assembly). Nigeria’s 2023 general election would go down as one of the most disputed in the country’s electoral cycle since the first general elections were held in the country in September 1923 under the Clifford Constitution of 1922. It may be said, after a fashion, that the true test of a law is in its implementation. Any piece of legislation is a living organism. Laws are made for the good of society. Thus, as living organisms, laws evolve and implementation structures and organs are aligned with the law-givers’ original intentions. I am of the view that given the contortions that have been experienced so far with the Electoral Act 2022, Nigeria needs to work further on the electoral framework, to oxygenate and deepen our democracy, and to align it more reasonably with the people’s will. The minimum lesson at this point is that when a law is made, those who are expected to operationalize it must study and understand it. State and party officials are so routinely distracted, they do not pay enough attention.
The extent to which this is so is that after the elections of February 25 and March 18, the electoral body, INEC took the decision to conduct supplementary elections in 24 states of the Federation, 2,660 polling units, 93 Legislative constituencies and 185 local governments, where elections had been declared inconclusive. Those supplementary elections took place on Saturday, April 15. INEC said it was better prepared, having learnt lessons from its most recent exercises, and having tested the Electoral Act in a general election. It was possible to believe that certain lessons had been learnt within the space of close to a month: March 18 – April 15. The Inspector General of Police lent his voice to the matter and said that the supplementary elections would proceed smoothly. But on April 15, it was déjà vu. The morning after, The Vanguard newspaper reported as follows: “Supplementary Elections: Violence, vote-buying reign as NNPP wins more seats in Kano.” The Sunday Punch told us: “Supplementary Elections: Four Killed, Houses razed, Thugs Disrupt Polls in Rivers, Anambra, Others”. The paper added in its front-page story: “Three killed in Kano for disrupting poll, soldiers shoot Kebbi ballot snatcher dead, APC, PDP, NNPP await INEC declaration of Adamawa, Kebbi gov seats.” … The report by Sunday Sun was as follows: “Violence, Apathy, Late Arrival of Materials Mar Supplementary Elections”, with the rider: “3 feared killed in Kano, Thugs, police, Ebubeagu chase away voters, abduct electoral officials in Imo, 6 persons arrested, 1 at large in Adamawa, over attempt to hack BVAS, vote buying , thuggery in Anambra, apathy, intimidation in Edo…” The Nigerian Tribune reported: “Supplementary Elections: Again, violence, ballot snatching rock exercise – 4 killed in Kano, Kebbi, EFCC arrests 12 in Kano, Katsina for vote-buying.”. The Sunday Independent said: “Sokoto Polls suffer voter apathy, late arrival of materials”.
The same weekend, party primaries were held in some of the states where off-cycle elections would take place later in 2023. The primaries were just as problematic. In Kogi state, four aspirants were reported to have rejected APC Gubernatorial primaries. The Nation said: “Sylva wins Bayelsa APC Guber Primary… Confusion as Labour Party holds factional primaries in Imo… Anxiety in Kebbi, Adamawa over guber elections”. In one word, despite all the concerns and anxieties expressed about the 2023 process as seen on February 25 and March 18, the supplementary elections of April 15, and even the party primaries in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi states, indicated very clearly, that nothing had changed and nothing would probably change going forward. Nigerians run a peculiar kind of democracy where anything and everything is possible and the only thing that matters is winning at all costs. It is a democracy of deaf and dumb persons fixated on only one goal and who define democracy strictly by personal standards. I have stumbled on the argument that there will never be a time Nigerian democracy will be run by saints and I am tempted to believe that ours may well be described as a democracy of villains, where the smartest villain wins. The only consolation is that the day may never come when Nigerian democracy will be black-listed by the international community as a lost cause simply because Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, the largest market in the continent, a country whose geo-political importance has direct bearing on the stability of the West African sub-region. Where then does that leave the endless talk in this country, about reforms, legacy and institutions?
Which takes us immediately to Adamawa State, Nigeria where a show of shame was enacted on Saturday by a certain Hudu Yunusa Ari, adult, male, and Resident Electoral Commissioner of Adamawa State who engaged in a violent act of breach of public peace by disrupting the collation of the results of the supplementary Gubernatorial election in Adamawa state in a criminal and roguish manner. It would be recalled that INEC had declared the Gubernatorial election in Adamawa State of March 18, 2023 inconclusive due to issues in Fufore Local Government, which caused much furore, and on the ground that the number of cancelled votes exceeded the margin of lead between the People’s Democratic Party candidate, incumbent Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and the closest challenger, Aishatu Dahiru of the All Progressives’ Congress. By 9 am on Sunday, April 16, collation officers and the returning officers at the State Collation Centre in Yola, the state capital had announced the results from 10 of the affected LGAS, with Fintiri, the PDP candidate leading with a wide margin. The Returning Officer then announced a recess for a continuation of collation and further announcement of results to re-commence by 11 am.
But before that advertised time of resumption, the State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) reportedly came into the centre and holding a handwritten note, without announcing any outstanding collated results, proceeded to announce Aisha Dahiru of the APC as the winner of the Gubernatorial election in Adamawa State. This threw the collation centre into confusion as party agents asked: How? Within a short while, the Gubernatorial candidate of the APC, Aisha Dahiru, popularly known as Binani, acting on this development, immediately gave an acceptance speech. INEC would later declare REC Hudu Yunusa Ari’s action “null, void and of no effect”. INEC said it would address the matter and asked the state REC, the Hudu Yunusa Ari man and the state Returning Officer, Professor Mele Lamido to report to the INEC Headquarters in Abuja. Yesterday, INEC directed that Hudu Yunusa-Ari should stay away from INEC office until further notice, and that Adamu Gujungu, administrative secretary in Adamawa should take charge of the office with immediate effect. The suspension of Hudu Yunusa-Ari does not go far enough. His rogue conduct must be addressed fully in accordance with the law. His behaviour amounts to impunity, criminality, desperation and such brazenness that deserves closer investigation. This is not a matter that can be swept under the carpet, because it is a mockery not just of the Adamawa supplementary election but of the entire electoral process. It provides strong justification for those who hold the view that this has been a shambolic event.
Hudu Yunusa-Ari was required to report to the INEC headquarters. If he has not done so, he should be declared a wanted person by the security agencies immediately! By INEC’s own declaration, he broke the law. One, the Electoral Act of 2022 grants specific powers to the Returning Officer as the official who is empowered to collate and announce results - see Section 64 (4) and (5). Indeed, Section 65 of the same Act uses the phrase “shall be final” with regard to the “decision of the Returning Officer on any question related to ballot papers and the declaration of results. Section 66 provides further specificity as regards the declaration of results, vested as it were in the person of “the appropriate returning officer”. The now suspended Adamawa Resident Electoral Commissioner not being the RO, knowingly violated the law. He should be made to face the full wrath of the law.
In Part VII of the Electoral Act, dealing with Electoral Offences, specific penalties are prescribed to deal with “dereliction of duty” in Section 120 (1 -6) where strong penalties are provided in Section 120(4) which states that “Any person who announces or publishes an election result knowing same to be false or which is at variance with the signed certificate of return commits an offence and is liable on conviction or imprisonment for a term of 36 months.” Sections 120 (5) and (6) also prescribe imprisonment for a term of three years. The indicted REC must be subjected to thorough investigation. Did he collude with others? Was he induced? Is he part of a ring of conspiracy? There have been allegations that sums running into about N2 billion exchanged hands. Really? Two, Yunusa-Ari’s disruptive and disorderly conduct is also questionable under Section 249 of the Criminal Code. His illegal declaration of Aisha Dahiru as winner threw Adamawa state and the entire country into a state of anxiety and confusion. Aggrieved persons in the state descended on the two INEC National commissioners who had been sent to oversee the Adamawa process. One of them was brutalized. The other, Professor Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, a former Vice Chancellor of Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto was beaten and stripped naked with blood streaming down his body. It was a case of mistaken identity. His assailants thought he was the REC that made the illegal announcement. While we do not recommend jungle justice, the attack on innocent Professor Zuru is most unfortunate. INEC has asked the security agencies to identify the assailants and bring them to book, but INEC needs to learn a lesson from here: the need to protect its officials, and pay more attention to their personal security.
The unmasking of rogue elements like the embattled Adamawa REC should also point to something else. INEC officials on the field during elections must be subjected to routine alcohol and psychiatric tests. This is the strongest plausible response to Hudu Yunusa-Ari’s behaviour. What worsens the entire matter in our view is that he was reportedly accompanied on his unholy mission by the Adamawa state Commissioner of Police and other policemen. In other words, the illegality was committed in the presence of law enforcement officers! Nigeria is one country where those who are supposed to enforce the law do not know the laws of the land! The Inspector General of Police had promised that the police will live up to expectations during the supplementary elections on April 15. Your guess is as good as mine. The least that the IGP can do is to ask the Police Command in Adamawa to produce their friend, the now suspended Resident Electoral Commissioner! Going forward, much better attention must be paid to the recruitment of persons for electoral duties. The INEC Chairman before the election had said that RECs, Collation Officers and Returning Officers were expected to be non-partisan, that is neutral, in the discharge of their responsibilities. They even swore on oath to that effect. Nigeria’s 2023 elections coincided with the Holy Month of Lent (Christian) and Ramadan (Muslim), and yet in the same season, the country has witnessed so much corruption and dishonesty.
Mrs Aishatu Dahiru should not have delivered that acceptance speech of shame, knowing the motivation for it to be of dubious extraction. Nigerians would be excited to have a female Governor who contests and wins an election, but that must be through fair and square means, not by ambush or fraudulent means. She owes the people of Adamawa an explanation and an apology. Many others, including Festus Keyamo, SAN jumped the gun. I have expressed the shock that more than a day after the faux pas, Keyamo, an officer in the temple of justice, was yet to take down his twitter post on the Adamawa election. The ball is now squarely in INEC’s court to ensure that the process in Adamawa’s supplementary election is concluded and that due process runs its complete course in a just manner. The big ogre in all this is how corruption is at the core of the Nigerian character from politics to catering business.
The “Obidients” – supporters of the mission and vision of Mr. Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party in Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election had it coming. And now they are getting their “comeuppance” served in flagellating doses, from Professor Wole Soyinka, grandmaster in the art of dissent, debate and reasoning who has all it takes to sustain an intellectual fight in the public arena. In two high-profile television interviews in recent weeks - Channels TV and Arise News, and two published commentaries: “Media Responsibility” and “Fascism on Course”, Professor Wole Soyinka has reacted robustly to what he describes as a predilection for fascism on the part of the “Obidients.” Fascism also means dictatorship, tyranny, autocracy, intolerance, the unwillingness to entertain the other view, the tendency to assume that one’s opinion is supreme and superior and that other human beings do not matter. Remember Hitler. Think Italy’s Benito Mussolini. Fascists simply want to have their way no matter what others think or suggest.
The catalyst for President Wole Soyinka’s intervention was an interview on Channels TV by the Vice-Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the course of which he said that it would be unconstitutional to swear in the President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu on May 29, 2023, and that doing so would “signal the end of democracy.” Soyinka upbraided Datti Baba-Ahmed for saying uncomplimentary things about the Nigerian judiciary in a subsequent interview with Channels TV and cautioned against the resort to the use of words that smack of fascism. Indeed, he pointed out that he had advised Peter Obi that if he lost the election, it would be partly because of those persons called “Obidients”. He went further to advise Datti Ahmed to desist from “television tirade of intimidation.” I would ordinarily think that this should not have generated any drama. What Soyinka said simply is that nobody should be a judge in his own cause or dictate to the judiciary.
Every elementary student of law must have heard of the maxim: nemo judex in causa sua. Following the February 25 Presidential election which Obi and Datti Ahmed claimed they and their party, the Labour Party won, they have since gone to court to file a petition. It amounts to contempt of court to even attempt to comment on the matter that has been handed over to the courts to determine. Besides when Datti Baba-Ahmed said it would be un-constitutional or undemocratic to swear in the President-elect on May 29, he missed the point. The current President’s tenure, after the maximum limit of two terms guaranteed by the 1999 Constitution, ends on May 29. The law does not allow him to stay a day longer. The Constitution does not provide for a vacuum either. The only legitimate concern that has been raised is the suggestion by Olisa Agbakoba SAN that election disputes should be concluded, before inauguration as is the case in other countries, especially Kenya. While there are many who would share this view, the truth is that the current system in Nigeria makes that difficult.
Agbakoba says the judiciary should be pro-active and adopt methods of arbitration and deal swiftly with constitutional and technical issues within seven days. The Nigerian judicial system is not structured to be pro-active. It works at snail speed in the best of circumstances. The courts are over-burdened. The judges are overworked and they do not have enough support systems. Lawyers are never in a hurry. In election matters, they would depend on the time limitations provided for in Section 285 (6) of the 1999 Constitution. Where we are today is an improvement in the adjudication of election matters; it used to take up to three years to resolve an election dispute.
The best that can be proposed is a further amendment of the Constitution with regard to the handling of election cases. It doesn’t require much intelligence therefore to see that a new administration would be inaugurated on May 29, and while the cases at the tribunals and courts continue, new persons would have settled into office. The real issue is that the power of incumbency would have shifted and the new persons in office would use it to their own advantage. There is so much tension in the land also because Nigerians do not trust the judiciary. They have seen too many cases of how the courts determined election petitions in a manner that caused confusion. In this country, a man once became a Governor of a state without going through the process. He didn’t even print posters not to talk of campaigning. In this same country, a man who did not take part in party primaries was declared a candidate and he got re-elected to the Senate. Is it not in this same country that the Supreme Court ruled that someone who came fourth in a gubernatorial election was the winner? The bigger irony is that many Nigerians now regard the judiciary as a truly Nigerian space where anything is possible beyond the facts and the law.
The sub-text of Soyinka’s intervention, as I see it, was to remind everyone of basic principles, an instruction in the values of order, justice, and the importance of institutions. Those who seek justice should not defeat the same purpose by dictating what kind of justice suits them, and insist solely on their view of the coin. Mr. Peter Obi, the LP Presidential candidate had always insisted that he has strong faith in the judicial process and he is committed to exploring every legal and constitutional means to “reclaim what he calls “his stolen mandate”. Indeed, on one occasion, Mr Obi in an interview on Arise TV tried to make a distinction between Obidients and members of the Labour Party when he pointed out that there are many Obidients who are not members of the Labour Party and that not all party members are Obidients, which I understood to mean that he, as a person does not dictate to Obidients, even if he is the rallying point for the aspirations of the group, made up mostly of young, angry Nigerians who want change, a transition away from the old political order, and who consider Peter Obi’s political philosophy a good expression of those aspirations. They galvanized momentum and passion around Peter Obi and the Labour Party in the last elections.
Professor Wole Soyinka has spoken about his preference for a third force, a fresh option which may well be represented by Peter Obi, and so you could say he is one of those persons who consider Peter Obi a possibility. His only complaint was about the intolerance and the fascism of Obidients. Any close watcher of the political scene would recall how Obidients in the lead up to the elections, took over the social media. They deployed vitriol, abuse, intimidation, harassment. Anyone who disagreed with them was insulted and disparaged. Opposition spokespersons soon labelled them “Obidiots”. But they were combat-ready. And it is that same combative spirit that they have taken to Professor Wole Soyinka’s door step. The old sage has refused to be intimidated. He says “Obidients is one of the most repulsive, off-putting concoctions I ever encountered in any political arena.” He accuses them of projecting their disdain for “corrective criticism” as a badge of honour and certificate of commitment… rabid parochial minds of easy excitation, the tyranny of the ignorant, and the opportunism of time-servers… living in a world of false mythologies.” This is not flattering at all, but the Obidients asked for it.
Their response to Professor Soyinka was bound to get them such whiplash. Some of the responses on social media and elsewhere have been so discourteous and rude. In this season of reckless conduct, people hide under the anonymity that social media offers and heap abuse on persons whose shoe lace they cannot ever hope to tie. Even the more direct and open responses have been shocking. Charly Boy, “Area Fada and an Obidient,” like many others told Professor Soyinka: “You can’t be compared with Chinua Achebe”. Please what has Chinua Achebe got to do with this matter? Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA), through Emmanuel Onwubiko wrote that Soyinka “should stop siding with the oppressors and tyrants.” Could that be Onwubiko speaking for himself for it would be most strange for a body like HURIWA to accuse Soyinka of supporting tyrants when that is the same tendency that he deplores? Then of course, I saw a comment by Daniel Bwala, spokesperson of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) asking that Professor Soyinka should have a debate with Chimamanda Adichie. Bwala can claim his right to free speech, but he is at best a busy-body in this instance. Yusuf Tanko, the chief spokesperson of the Labour Party had already addressed the matter when he responded to Professor Soyinka’s invitation of Datti Baba-Ahmed to a debate. He said the Labour Party’s vice-presidential candidate declines the invitation for political and cultural reasons. Before nko? It would be foolhardy for Datti Ahmed to go into a debate with a man of Soyinka’s stature. What I find surprising in all of this however, is a certain Easter message attributed to Mr. Peter Obi in which he talked about “orchestrated efforts to demarket and delegitimize the OBIdient movement.” Is that a veiled attack on Professor Wole Soyinka? So far, Mr Obi has maintained his cool in the political arena, he should not allow himself to be hijacked by an emerging “personality cult.”
But isn’t this a sign of the times though? It is not only Obidients that are in a foul mood. The triumphant members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are not better. They in fact have a much larger tendency for fascism that is frightening, and the real fear is that when these persons get to the corridors of power, their arrogance and imperialism would know no bounds. While the Obidients scream on social media, the BATists, that is the supporters and spokespersons of the APC and President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu shoot from the hips on all platforms. Before and after the elections, they have been on the offensive, making it seem as if they have won a war, and must gather prisoners and shoot them down. They act based on suspicion. They respond to every little comment. They are quick to do the dirty job on their principal’s behalf, victory has become their aphrodisiac. It does not matter to them that the February 25 Presidential election is now a matter before the election petition tribunal. They openly taunt the opposition to go to court, giving the impression that nothing unfavourable to their party and candidate would come out of there.
Their latest target is Chimamanda Adichie, the distinguished, internationally acclaimed writer, who sent a letter to President Joe Biden on the Nigerian elections, in which she condemned the Nigerian electoral process, and accused the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of being compromised. The attack launched by spokespersons and supporters of the APC on Chimamanda Adichie must be quite shocking to her. She has been accused of being a tribal bigot, an Obidient, supporting a former Governor of her state, and an unpatriotic Nigerian maligning her country. And how dare she report Nigeria, a sovereign state to Joe Biden? The APC attack team has also sent letters to the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Canada to debunk Ms. Adichie’s reflections on the 2023 election. One commentator, Femi Fani-Kayode to be specific, dismissed her letter as a “boring epistle of dishonest garbage” – except that Adichie is incapable of writing garbage! She has also been accused of colonial mentality and sedition, with calls that she should be sued. President Biden has been advised to ignore her. Ms. Adichie wrote: “Congratulating the election’s outcome, President Biden tarnishes America’s self-proclaimed commitment to democracy. Please do not give the sheen of legitimacy to an illegitimate process. The United States should be what it says it is.” Unlike Professor Wole Soyinka, Chimamanda Adichie has not responded to the backlash that she got. She obviously thinks silence is the best answer for the APC crowd.
Thus, within the same period two prominent Nigerian writers, Soyinka and Adichie being attacked for expressing views about the conduct of politics and political players in Nigeria. Both the elder and the younger writer are drawing attention to omissions that could have far-reaching implications. Their mode of intervention may differ, but in truth, they are both concerned about the health of our nation, and the character of the political class. Soyinka is a national treasure, a global humanist and one of the best thinkers of the century. Ms. Adichie is one of Nigeria’s great ambassadors on the world stage with her contributions to culture, literature and knowledge. Writers are the conscience of the nation. Their job is to speak truth to power, shape public thought, create a current of ideas, no matter whose ox is gored. Soyinka is the elder statesman calling for restraint. Ms Adichie expresses the feelings of many of her generation who feel disappointed by the 2023 election. Critical as her piece may seem, she has not said anything that is not out there in public. It would be wrong to assume that only persons inside Nigeria or who voted during the elections are entitled to comment on the outcome. It is not even a sin for writers or any citizens at all to hold political beliefs. What is objectionable is the growing drift towards fascism in Nigeria’s political space. It reflects a culture of intolerance that erodes the tenets of democracy and human freedom.
Beyond all the expectations about the immediate future of Nigeria, it must be possible to take our country back from the fringes of despair, hate and division to which it has been driven by the recent elections. It must be possible again to have healthy, open and decent conversations in the public sphere. This calls for leadership, restraint, and above all wisdom.
“My man, are you sure we are in the Holy Month, because I am not understanding anymore? There is so much tension in the country on all fronts.”
“Of course, it is the Holy Month. Two days ago, it was Palm Sunday, a significant moment in the Christian community’s observance of Lent, when Christians fast for 40 days and 40 nights, and take on Christ-like conduct and virtues and seek the eye of God. Muslims are also in the Ramadan season, the Holy Month. Both religions preach friendship, understanding, kindness towards the poor, sacrifice and the spirit of sharing and giving. A few days earlier, there was so much talk about traditional worshippers, especially in Lagos state, talking about rituals, placement of sacrificial offerings at crossroads, and yet you say there is so much tension in the country.”
“You have not answered my question. What I know is that every day, Nigerians mouth the mantra that we all worship the same God and that we are all children of God, whoever and whatever we worship. But what I see is a country that has no fear of God. What people do is different from what they say! Religion has failed in this country. We should ban religion.”
“Hey Hey, calm down. Nobody has banned religion in Russia, China, United States or Cuba. Na here you want to ban religion?Human beings are by nature superstitious, but the problem we have in this country is that there is a gap between public morality and private morality. People go to church or the mosque but don’t be deceived, they don’t care about values, they don’t give a damn about virtues, they go to church, the mosques and shrines, they claim we are all serving one God, but you can’t see a trace of it in their relationship with other human beings.”
“Free me. Tell me as you see it.”
“There is too much wawulence in the land.”
“Speak English. What is wawulence?”
“The language of persons with street credibility. Too much violence, verbal, physical and spiritual in the country of our birth, right now, today, everywhere. Too much ethnic and religious hate and bigotry. I think people are losing their minds because of the elections. And I think we need to remind ourselves that there is a country, and that the country is more important than individual ambitions and preferences.”
“Point of correction. There was a country.”
“There is a country. And there will still be a country. Can we all step out of the mass psychosis that we are dealing with?”
“The psychotics know themselves. The people who have turned election into a source of craze know themselves.”
“Yes. Like your friends in the All Progressives Congress (APC) who are now leaking Peter Obi’s telephone conversations, and who claim that he is trying to start a religious war by campaigning on the basis of ethnicity and religion, and they and their allies have put into circulation a doctored version of a telephone conversation between him and Bishop David Oyedepo. Their intent is to ridicule him and lower him in the estimation of serious-minded and reasonable people of society”.
“I don’t know who put out any audio conversation, doctored, not doctored. What I know is that there is so much hostility out there because of an election. In the first place, don’t believe everything that you see on social media. We are in the age of Artificial Intelligence, ChatGPT and all kinds of manipulations. You must always fact-check.”
“The Labour Party and the Obidients have confirmed that their candidate actually spoke with Bishop David Oyedepo except that the leaked audio is manipulated, fake, doctored. They say there is a plan to arrest Peter Obi for treasonable felony”
“Nobody is above the law. But is that how people are arrested? The people that should be arrested are the people who leaked the phone call between two persons. It is a violation of Section 37 of the 1999 Constitution and all other relevant laws on data protection, consumer protection and freedom of information. People have the right to privacy. That is why there is something called lawyer-client, doctor-patient privilege and confidentiality. If people are allowed to go about leaking other people’s private conversations, society will be ruined. Imagine someone for example, hacking into your conversation with your female friends, and sending same to your wife and other girlfriends, you would have instant chaos in your life. Your life expectancy will reduce.”
“That is a wrong analogy. I am a straight and decent man. I am not even a card-carrying politician. But someone told me that we have the right to know everything about people in the public domain, and that it is a good thing to leak everything about politicians.”
“I know what you are saying. Volenti non fit inuria. That is the principle. It does not apply here though. Even politicians have rights. In any case, in the so-called released audio conversation, I don’t see anything that is wrong. People are just making a mountain out of a mole-hill. Politicians all over the world play to their base, they mobilise their base, they reach out to persons of influence. Peter Obi calling Bishop Oyedepo, a man of great influence and asking him for support for whatever reason is not an issue. It does not amount to calling for a religious war. It is perfectly within his right to seek celebrity endorsement. In any case, Bishop Oyedepo has shaken it all off. Did you listen to his riposte? He is a man of God. He advises everyone that seeks his counsel, whether they take it or not. Has anybody queried why in the last elections, Muslim clerics supported the Muslim-Muslim ticket? Have they looked for conversations between Muslim candidates and Muslim leaders? Look, the election is over, people who are aggrieved should go to court. The various spokespersons who have been exchanging vitriol over nothing should go and look for work. You can’t be a spokesperson for another man permanently. Get busy. Election don finish oh! Boys! Move on!”
“I hear people are looking for appointments, especially within the APC, and that the President-elect is already putting together a team. He is building a team.”
“You mean team-ship?”
“Yes, team-ship. Serious lobbying going on. The other day, it was Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi lobbying openly that Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers must be given a core role in the Tinubu government. I hear some people are also already organizing civil society groups to say that they must be in the government. In fact, some men have since abandoned their wives and children and turned themselves into Tinubu’s handbags, struggling to make themselves useful. They are with him in France as we speak.”
“The things that hunger, greed and poverty will cause in this country will be serious. But truly, I don’t have a problem with the attempt to put a team together. Nigeria can no longer afford a ridiculous situation where a President would be sworn in and for six months, he would claim he is still looking for a team. No. There are urgent matters ahead. The President must hit the ground running. As long as he recruits the best and the brightest, not mediocres, not IOU-seekers, opportunists, habitual drunkards, and second-rate clowns in the corridors of power, I don’t have a problem with that.”
“Who is a second-rate clown? A clown is a clown”
“I know what I am saying. Some first-rate clowns in this country are educated billionaires. Don’t force me to mention names. If you must recruit a court jester, at least get the good ones. We have had too many jesters running the Nigerian government.”
“But people say Tinubu should wait till the dispute around the Presidential election is resolved.”
“There is nothing in our laws that says so. Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution provides very strict timelines for election petitions. Lawyers exploit this. They will stretch the matter with every possible trick. By May 29, Tinubu would be sworn in. The process has started. He will promptly announce a Cabinet and activate Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution which grants him extensive executive powers to appoint and disappoint. Within a week, a full government would be up and running. You can keep talking to the courts!”
“I don’t think that is right”
“It is not a matter of what you think. It is what the law makes possible.”
“We have to change the law. All election disputes must be finalized before inauguration. The Uwais Commission made such a recommendation. We must go back to it. That is what they do in Kenya and other places. Now I understand why some people are calling for an Interim National Government and why one man tried to stop a commercial plane from flying and threatened that there will be no Presidential inauguration on May 29.”
“I hope you also understand that the Department of State Services, and other security agencies have made it clear that anybody who tries to subvert the state, will be made to face the full wrath of the law. Nobody should test the patience of the state-qua-state. Be careful. I won’t make a case for you.”
“I don’t make trouble with anybody. I have enough issues of my own. I mind my business. I only discuss politics when we are together like this. I raise questions. I am not likely to go on television like Datti Baba-Ahmed to say any attempt to swear in Tinubu would signal the end of democracy, and then get a TV station fined. I will not board a plane like that Obiajulu man and say there will be no inauguration on May 29. I will not act like the Eze Ndigbo of Ajao estate and proclaim that Igbos in Lagos will invite IPOB to Lagos to defend Igbo properties and investments. But we have to understand the context and understand that people are angry.”
“You know I know what you mean by context”
“Yes”
“Eluu Pee”
“Yes Daddy”
“Obi Nwannem”
“Yes Daddy”
“Obi Kererenke, Obi oh”
“Yes Daddy”
“Whoever is not happy, go to Court and fact-check”
“But you know why we are having these issues, because the people do not trust the courts. Not even that musician called Portable, Habeeb Okikiola. When the police went to arrest him, after several invitations and he had snubbed them, he told them that he is a government liability, a celebrity, a Baboon, who belongs to the zoo. Zazuh zeh! That is how many Nigerians behave. They don’t trust the system.”
“But I hope you know what has now happened to him?”
“What happened to the Omo Ijoba himself?”
“You don’t read the news.? On Friday, he was arrested by the police, and told in clear terms that being a celebrity does not confer any constitutional immunity on him, and that he is truly a government liability and not an asset. He spent the weekend in a police cell in Abeokuta. Yesterday, he was arraigned in a Magistrate Court in Ifo, Ogun State where he was slammed with a three-count charge, and remanded in Ilaro prison until he discharges his bail terms.”
“Nigeria is a wicked place to aspire to be anything.”
“No. Obey the law. The same Portable that was boasting that he is a Baboon. He has been told now that Baboons in the zoo are kept in cages, and he has been kept behind bars accordingly. I hope they lock him up with very gluttonous mosquitoes. In fact, I suspect they did. He was looking very contrite in court. A se ko ti e le. Him no get liver. Egungun better be careful! This is why everybody should be calm. After the elections, everyone should learn to be calm.”
“Make we calm, make we calm down. But there is a way this country also gets on your nerves. People are reacting in their own ways. Look at Rivers state, lawyers who went to Port Harcourt for election matters were arrested and detained, and the materials in their possession were seized. That is enough to make anybody angry.”
“They have been released.”
“So. But a point has been made. Whoever wants to challenge the election results in Rivers State is not welcome and you know what happened on February 25 and March 18 in that state and after the elections, parties across the country have been suspending key officials of their parties from the Peoples’ Democratic Party in Benue, the Labour Party in Edo State to the APC in Delta, Kwara, Bauchi and Zamfara States. Some people are just determined to heat up the polity.”
“I am sure if you check the stories from those states very well, you’d see that for the most part, it is mainly about disagreement over ego, stomach infrastructure, and nothing about Nigeria and its future.”
“Even when people try to fight for the future, they are not allowed. I am sure you know that is the way we are.”
“You tell me.”
“Take Kano State.”
“What about Kano State?”
“Earlier on, we discussed Tinubu getting ready for the future, you said that was right. In Kano, Governor-elect, Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has issued two advisories. On March 30, he issued an advisory on ongoing constructions in the state in public spaces and urged that they should be stopped until the incoming administration assumes office. On March 31, he issued another advisory to say that no financial institution should grant any loans to Kano State because the in-coming administration will not honour such loans. He has been told he is jumping the gun. Governor Ganduje has told him that he is still in charge until May 29. I don’t understand this country. We are a nation of hypocrites and double standards.”
“To be fair, the Governor-elect of Kano State does not yet have the imprimatur of the law. He is not yet a constituted authority”
“Is Tinubu a constituted authority?”
“It is not the same thing. The comparison is off-key.”
“This is the problem then. How can we have a proper country when Nigerians have over 200 million opinions on any subject under the sun and the country’s population itself is over 200 million!”
“I don’t have an answer to that.”
“I’d be surprised if anybody does.”
The prevalence of the comic spirit is one of those distinctive features of Nigerian life and society – one of those things that make us who we are – our capacity to turn every season, every occasion, serious, not so serious, even sombre, into an opportunity for mirth, that is - plain rambunctious, defiant or deprecating laughter. In my earlier life as a teacher of comic theory, it was an interesting time teaching the special veins of wit and humour and how the aesthetics of laughter defines national character and culture, a people’s capacity for word-play, and satire or parody. This trend, embodied in the Nigerian character, North or South, East to West is in part responsible even in an electronic age, for the fantastic humour that Nigerians create on social media. There was so much of this on display during the recent Nigerian election and indeed perhaps, a documentation of the process would be incomplete without recalling some of the highlights of the humour that marked it, from the macabre to the grotesque, the irrational to the verbal magic of some of the key political players and their supporters. This account is merely representative; it is by no means exhaustive.
The place to begin is the verbal gem that the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, then an aspirant, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu dropped in Abeokuta on June 2, 2022 when he used certain words which may well end up as part of Nigeria’s political lexicon viz: “Emilokan. Literally, the Yoruba word means “it is my turn” or “I’m next”. Asiwaju Tinubu had categorically told his audience that it was his turn to become President of Nigeria, having helped the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari to gain power. Highly rated as a kingmaker in Nigeria’s power politics, Tinubu on that occasion announced that the kingmaker was tired of anointing others, he would rather ascend the throne personally. He was firm, assertive and throughout the season that followed, he did not waver despite criticisms that his was an expression of a sense of entitlement and disregard for the right of the electorate to choose. Tinubu’s supporters felt inspired by his confidence. To illustrate his determination, Tinubu said when Buhari failed thrice to become Nigeria’s President – O lu le, once, twice, thrice, he was the one who told the President to wipe his tears, and he helped him in 2015 to achieve his dream. In other words, the auto-suggestion by the APC Presidential aspirant was that it was pay-back time – one good turn, as the cliché states, deserves another. He wanted his goodwill reciprocated. If anyone was in any doubt, Tinubu turned towards the sitting Governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun and told his audience that even “Eleyi” (This One) could not have been Governor without him.
The three phrases in Yoruba and the underlying rhetoric captured public imagination and caught on like wildfire. Musicians in various genres have turned Emilokan into lyrics – each singer adapting the phrase to suit his or her taste and creativity. The National Association of Seadogs – the Pyrates Confraternity, during the group’s 70th celebration in September 2022 came up with an adaptation of the Emilokan phrase in a highly personal, satirical song. Professor Wole Soyinka, father-figure of the Confraternity dismissed the song as distasteful. In a subsequent statement, the group said it was not out to mock or discriminate against the subject and that it was apolitical. The apology was rather late. Disc jockeys, musicians, notably the Afro-beat singer, Dede Mabiaku had done their own re-mix versions of the song. Several other remixes also showed up on social media platforms. But as many would recall, Tinubu’s Emilokan turned out to be prophetic. Days after the Abeokuta incident, he went on to win his party’s primaries in Abuja scoring 1, 271 votes. He defeated 13 other contestants, with some of the original total of 23 aspirants stepping down for him before the commencement of voting. The closest person to him – Rotimi Amaechi then Minister of Transportation scored 316 votes! Tinubu also received the endorsement of President Muhammadu Buhari who raised his hand at several campaign rallies and who voted for him on February 25, enthusiastically showing off his ballot paper to prove that he voted for the APC, even if that gesture amounted to a violation of the Electoral Act 2022. Asiwaju Tinubu was later declared winner of the Presidential election by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) with 8, 794, 726 votes, beating 17 other candidates. Four political parties – PDP, LP, AA and APM and their candidates have since gone to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to challenge the results.
Anyone who in interested in a position now borrows the phrase - Emilokan in the hope that just as Asiwaju Tinubu willed his ambition into reality, their own dreams would also come to pass. The other day, the Senate Chief Whip, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, freshly re-elected (Abia North) generated not a little laughter when he too announced that it is now his turn, and the turn of his village, Igbere, to produce the next Senate President of Nigeria. Our democracy is now becoming “turn by turn” but let’s see if the Emilokan magical word would work for Senator Kalu. In Ogun State, Tinubu’s host who was called “Eleyi” (This One) has been re-elected. Prince Abiodun can now confidently say that he is more than an “Eleyi” in Ogun State, having secured a second term without any Godfather pulling all the strings for him.
Next to Tinubu’s verbal inventiveness would be the memorable exertions of the Governor of Rivers state, Nyesom Wike and his colleague-PDP -Governors – Samuel Ortom (Benue), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) who took a principled stand that it was the turn of the South to produce Nigeria’s next President, and that it was wrong for their party to have elected a Presidential candidate from the North, and also the Chairman of the party from the North in the person of Senator Iyorchia Ayu. They wanted Ayu to step down as party Chairman at the minimum pre-condition for dialogue. The party refused. Wike was accused of sour grapes, having lost his bid to be the party’s Presidential standard bearer at the primaries. The G-5, as the group was known stood its ground. It later expanded into a bigger body known as the Integrity Group. Publicly, they taunted the PDP and their presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Wike, the obvious leader and main spirit openly identified with members of the APC and Labour Party. Whereas he invited members of those two parties to Rivers State to commission projects and treated them to generous receptions, he snubbed the PDP candidate and members of his own party at the state level who were pro-Atiku.
He made it clear that he would only support the PDP in the state elections, and that he and his colleagues in G-5 would not leave the party. Daniel Bwala, PDP Presidential Council spokesperson derisively referred to the G-5 as the Jackson 5. Other PDP spokespersons – Aare Dele Momodu and Senator Dino Melaye were also convinced that the PDP would not be affected at the polls by the G-5 rebellion. In the just concluded general elections, the PDP paid heavily for this disunity within its ranks. On February 25, it lost in states where it should ordinarily have won because the five Governors did not lift a finger to help their own party’s Presidential candidate. In Enugu, Abia and Benue the PDP Governors lost their bids to go to the Senate- in a karmic sense perhaps. In Oyo State on March 18, Governor Seyi Makinde, also of the G5 survived and was re-elected; in Rivers, Governor Wike fulfilled his promise of installing his own successor (a puppet?) although other parties in that election insist that what happened in Rivers state was not an election.
Before, during and after the election, the G5 would be remembered for introducing to the grammar of politics a song titled: “As e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” It is a triumphal song of defiance and self-assertion. Wike gained much attention with his unique style of dancing to this song and with his usual riposte: “Enough is Enough”. When the dust settles, Wike will not be forgotten for his many colourful displays, sometimes bordering on the farcical and the grotesque. For example, drinking a 40-year-old bottle of whiskey at 11. 30 am and boasting that he would even drink a 50-year-old bottle. Rotimi Amaechi who originally accused Wike of using state resources to consume alcohol has not said anything further on that matter. Any other response has been swallowed! Wike’s response of course would probably be: “As e dey pain dem, he go dey sweet us”. This line has gained currency across the country. When Alex Otti was declared winner of the gubernatorial election in Abia State, after a suspension of the collation of results to resolve alleged irregularities in Obingwa LGA, his supporters trooped to the streets in jubilation. One of the songs on their lips was: “as e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” Nigerians have not heard the last of that song.
Yet another creative figure on the scene is the current Governor of Osun State, Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP. The Osun Gubernatorial election was held on July 16, 2022, and he was declared winner. The APC challenged the victory at the State Election Petition Tribunal. The three-man panel at that Tribunal upturned the election, and handed victory to former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC. Adeleke and the PDP promptly filed an appeal at the Court of Appeal, which has now ruled in favour of Adeleke, upholding his victory. The APC has vowed to go all the way to the Supreme Court. A major thing in Nigeria today is to tell aggrieved election losers to go to Court! Governor Adeleke says he is confident that the Supreme Court would rule in his favour. With Seyi Makinde of Oyo state having joined the G5, and former Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti aligned with the same group, the lot fell on Adeleke of Osun State to lead the PDP in the South West. On February 25, he won Osun State for Atiku. On March 18, the PDP further won 25 out of the 26 seats in the Osun State House of Assembly, losing only in Boripe/Boluwaduro LGA where former Governor Oyetola hails from. But what is most noteworthy about Governor Adeleke is his passion for dancing. He became popular as a Senator of the Federal Republic for his dancing prowess. He and his erstwhile colleague, Dino Melaye turned dancing into a tool of political communication. I have it on good authority that the first day he reported for duty as Governor, the civil servants of Osun asked him to dance for them.
The Osun State Election Petition Tribunal in the lead judgement delivered by Justice Terse Kume, in fact mocked him for always dancing to “Buga” – the song by Kiss Daniel. The Court of Appeal through Justice Mohammad Shuaibu while acknowledging that a judge can speak “obiter” was however of the view that this comment by the lower court was “uncalled for”. The truth is that Governor Adeleke loves to dance. He has even added drumming to it. There is a video in circulation showing him, in the company of others, drumming away with a Bandiri local drum. When he came to The Morning Show (TMS) on Arise TV on Monday, March 27, I had raised the question about dancing and drumming, and whether he is planning to launch a musical band, like his sons - B-Red and Sina Rambo - and his nephew, Davido. His response was that there is a time for everything, thus echoing Ecclesiastes 3: 1 – 11. He also quoted Shakespeare’s Macbeth. I was tempted to ask him to show our viewers a few dance steps. But I let him be. Without doubt, he will be noted for the colour lent to contemporary politics by him and the likes of Dino Melaye - who has since added acrobatic falls to his displays and who now says he wants to be the next Governor of Kogi State.
There is possibly no way I would leave out: “Eluu Pee 74, Eluu Pee 75, 76, 77, Obi 78, Kererenke 79, Obi 80, Obi Nwannem 81..” – a very catchy tune created by Mr. Kleb and Obidients to promote the Labour Party and its Presidential candidate, Peter Obi. The word is a play on the local, Igbo pronounciatiion of the 12th and 16th letters of the English alphabet. Turned into a song, it became an instant hit. The imitative pronounciation was not an issue but the sub-text, and in many instances, Obi’s supporters rounded up the Eluu Pee, antiphonal-responsorial with another song - “Obi kererenke, Obi”. This is an old folk song adapted with reverberating effect as Disc Jockeys and party members turned it into a popular song from Nigeria to Ghana, to Kenya. Peter Obi joined the Labour Party on May 27, 2022. In less than one year, he has transformed a hitherto marginal party into a vote-winning, game changer in Nigerian politics. This should be a useful case study for students of the making of political parties in Africa.
The general, on-cycle elections of 2023 have been concluded except in Kebbi and Adamawa states still declared inconclusive and a few outstanding constituencies in the National Assembly, and over 100 election petitions already filed but one remaining highlight is how the candidate of the PDP, Pastor Umo Eno won the Gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom State by promising the people: “Happy Hour,” every Friday. His promise is that every Friday, selected restaurants and bars in the state would serve the people food and drinks at a subsidized rate to make the people happy. In his acceptance speech after his declaration as Governor-Elect his key message to the people was: “Happy Hour is Here”. It has been reported that indeed, last Friday, even without a formal take-over as Governor, a “serve them round”, “come and eat”, Happy Hour was declared in the state with people enjoying pepper soup, edikang ikong, tombo and other delicacies at cheaper rates. Pastor Eno has a programme of action called “Arise Agenda” but he has successfully found his way to Government House by grabbing the people through their stomachs. Can he sustain it? How would he ensure fairness, equity and transparency? And would Akwa Ibom close its borders every Friday, because if the “food is ready” programme is sustained, no one should rule out the possibility of people in neighbouring states and even farther away showing up on Fridays in Akwa Ibom. We are effectively in the season of hunger, hypocrisy and political opportunism.
Nigerians looked forward to their just concluded State elections – Gubernatorial and State Houses of Assembly - held on Saturday March 18, with fervent hope that their expectations would be met. They had managed to survive the Presidential and National Assembly elections of February 25 which resulted in controversy, protests, and two of the major parties heading to the Presidential Election Tribunal to challenge the process and the declaration of the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President-elect. Both local and international observers, with the striking exception of Federal Government spokespersons – Alhaji Lai Mohammed and Mallam Garba Shehu and of course, APC supporters, had dismissed the election as “flawed”, “far short of international standards.” The Presidential candidates of the PDP- Atiku Abubakar and the Labour Party – Peter Obi called for the cancellation of the Presidential election.
In general, questions were raised about the failure of INEC to abide by enabling laws and its own regulations and guidelines, the failure in particular of the Bimodal Voters’ Accreditation System (BVAS), and INEC not keeping to its promise to upload results to its results viewing portal in real time; there were also challenges arising from voter intimidation and logistics, the dominance of ethnicity and religion as deciding factors, vote buying despite the scarcity of cash at the time due to the Central Bank’s Naira redesign policy, violence across many states – Lagos, Rivers, Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Kogi, Bayelsa, FCT, Enugu, Osun, Ondo and Ogun, the wanton violation of the law by prominent figures displaying their ballot papers at polling units. In that election, voting had to be rescheduled in 141 polling units in Bayelsa state, where BVAS machines had been carted away or materials did not arrive on time or not at all. The general word of advice to INEC is that it should address whatever technical glitches that affected the polls on February 25, and that the security agencies should improve on their performance. Public expectation was further raised by the fact that INEC approached the Court to reconfigure BVAS in readiness for the next elections and having been granted leave to do so, it subsequently postponed the state elections from March 11 to March 18, thus gaining more time. Indeed, INEC and the security agencies after a meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security assured Nigerians that all would be well on March 18- a far more demanding election covering elections in 28 states, 1, 021 constituencies, and over 930 candidates.
Nigerians are incurable optimists, but their enthusiasm was subdued on March 18, as seen in the emergent reports of voter apathy and low voter turn-out. On the streets of Rivers state, young men chose to play football on the streets. In Yenagoa, Bayelsa people went to the markets as if there was no restriction of movement on election day. The observed shortcomings of the February 25 process robbed many of faith that their votes would count. Nevertheless, INEC officials arrived early in most parts of the country. Where voting commenced early, there were no reports of “big men” displaying their ballot papers. INEC also did a better job of uploading results to its portal, even if in other places, voters were told pointedly that there would be no uploading of results and that all results would be taken to the state collation centres. To be fair, the law does not expressly state how INEC should upload election results. However, in terms of general atmosphere and outcomes, during and after the voting, the March 18 elections were worse.
This has been attributed to the fact that the professional political class had seen how the political map of the country was significantly altered after the February 25 elections. Labour Party, a movement that had been revived only a few months earlier in 2022, won 36 seats in the House of Representatives, four seats in the Senate, and practically swept the polls in the South East. The Labour Party further accomplished the feat of beating the ruling APC in Lagos State, the stronghold of the APC Presidential candidate. Strong, established politicians were also defeated including Senator Philip Aduda who had been in the Senate for a record four terms, Senators Abubakar Bagudu, Gabriel Suswam, Tanko Al-Makura, Uche Ekwunife, Bala Ibn Na’Allah, Kabiru Gaya, Stella Oduah, Biodun Olujimi, Bashiru Ajibola. And in the House of Representatives – Hon. Ndudi Elumelu, Hon. Nkeruika Onyejeocha. These are political heavyweights but they were defeated. In addition, incumbent Governors seeking a trip to the Senate – the usual retirement, idling destination for former Nigerian Governors were disappointed: Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu); Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ben Ayade (Cross River) Abubakar Bagudu (Kebbi) Samuel Ortom (Benue), Simon Lalong (Plateau), and Darius Ishaku (Taraba). Ahead of the March 18 elections, President Buhari made it clear that there would be no such thing as the annulment of election as happened in 1993. Whoever is aggrieved should go to the courts. Nigerians have mixed feelings about the judiciary. The manner in which those who were declared winners trumpeted the phrase: “let us meet in court” further deepened suspicions.
Given this scenario, it turned out that politicians went to the March 18 polls with greater desperation. Nobody wanted to leave anything to chance. The received wisdom in Nigerian politics is that it is better to win by any means possible, collect the Certificate of Return and allow the aggrieved persons to complain and file petitions. By the way, it is not every loser in an election that would seek legal redress: lawyers don’t come cheap during election seasons in Nigeria! It is their own stomach infrastructure moment too. Hence, what we witnessed on March 18 in most parts of the country was war, with dosages of violence, death, pathos, and burlesque. Every identifiable bane of Nigerian politics was on full display. Violence - in Imo State, INEC officials were kidnapped, and later rescued, persons were killed in Gboko South LGA, Benue state, also in Ibiono Ibom, Akwa Ibom State, in Lagos, persons were killed, macheted, and journalists from Arise News, News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), AIT, and celebrities were brutalized by hoodlums and criminal gangs who took over the streets and threatened to harm anyone who voted for any party other than the ruling party.
In Rivers, gunmen invaded Elibrada Community in Emohua Local government, and killed three persons, two others were killed in Bori, Khana LGA. In the same Rivers state, the APC Campaign Director, Chisom Lennard was abducted and later shot dead in Ahoada West LGA. In Ebonyi, the state Chairman of the PDP was beaten to a state of coma. He died from injuries. Two persons were killed in Ethiope West, LGA, Delta State. By the morning of March 19, the media was reporting over 30 deaths. To win an election, those seeking leadership positions were ready to kill the same people they promised to serve! INEC and its officials and equipment were equally a special target: In Taraba, Lagos, Rivers, Kebbi, Benue, and Delta, BVAS machines were snatched, ballot boxes were either stolen and carted way or set ablaze as in the Ojo LGA of Lagos State. It must be added though that INEC officials have been accused of malpractices. In Owerri North LGA of Imo State and in parts of the North, INEC officials were caught helping to thumb-print ballot papers in favour of political parties of their choice. The reign of impunity has since continued. On Sunday evening, thugs invaded the LGA Collation Centre in Obingwa, Abia State. There was so much tension in Kano State, the state government had to declare a curfew yesterday. The people defied it. In Delta State, the collation of results was delayed because INEC officials had been held hostage in Ughelli North, allegedly on the orders of a powerful Gubernatorial candidate. After the announcement of the Gubernatorial result in Nasarawa state yesterday, people took to the streets in protest. Both the PDP and APGA in that state believe that the results were manipulated in favour of the APC.
Vote buying/Voter inducement: It has been reported that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) by March 18 had arrested more than 65 suspects involved in vote buying. The sad news is that in some of the states, cash was given out in the open, with policemen in attendance, looking the other way. The performance of the security agencies varied. The police were happy to be on duty. In fact, in some states, it was reported that they helped hoodlums to snatch ballot boxes. The Supreme Court had ruled that old redesigned notes should remain legal tender, and before March 18, the CBN had formally directed all deposit money banks to comply. Unlike February 25, there was money to go round on election day, March 18. Poverty became a stronger weapon in the hands of politicians. Voter suppression: this was also a big problem, what rankles was the brazenness and the variety of it. The most obvious was the deployment of criminal gangs in various parts of the country, especially Lagos, Rivers, and Delta. In Delta, there is a video of Mr. Fred Ajudua telling voters in Ibuzo: “If you are not voting PDP, stay in your house”. It was worse in Lagos where ahead of the election, traditional rulers in the state announced a traditional Oro festival, telling women and non-indigenes to stay indoors at certain hours. When public outcry made that impossible, thugs and touts were deployed to the streets to tell the people how to vote or face the consequences. On election day, the same thugs took charge. Polling units were relocated either to the main road where thugs could have easy access, or to traditional palaces. One traditional ruler locked the gates to his estate. In areas that had been identified as strongholds of the Labour Party on February 25, Igbos were prevented from voting. It was said that Lagos is for the indigenes, and that Igbo tenants and settlers should not think of dictating who becomes Governor in Lagos. It was absurd and crude. Yet, this election strategy has been defended by otherwise educated and intelligent people. My friend and brother, Femi Fani-Kayode has written a piece in which he says Lagos belongs to Yoruba people and Igbos should return to their own land. He even says Gbadebo Rhodes Vivour (Labour Party), a Yoruba, cannot be Governor in Yorubaland because his mother is Igbo. Coming from FFK, who defended Nnamdi Kanu, and who has four smart, good-looking sons from an Igbo woman, I can only say that I am flabbergasted. This is what politics does to us? Bayo Onanuga, co-founder and Managing Director of The News, former MD of NAN and seasoned journalist is an Ijebu-Ode man but working for APC, he has been arguing that he has no apologies for saying that Igbos should not interfere in Lagos politics. A settler in Lagos telling another settler to mind his business in Lagos?
But the part of the elections of March 18 that I found even more curious was the spiritual side of it. In Lagos, spirituality and occultism were thrown into the mix. How widespread this was may not be easy to establish but at least we can quote a few examples. In Lagos, there is a video in circulation showing some Lagos Chiefs at a shrine called “Oju Alale”, literally the shrine for the worship of the founders of the community, raining curses on Igbos in Lagos and praying for the incumbent Governor’s victory in the election. On election day, some cultists dressed in complete secret society habiliments were seen in Ikeja shouting “Agan o, Agan o” and warning non-indigenes not to vote foolishly. In Oyo state, members of a syncretic church were also shown raining incantations on a small ram and praying that Senator Teslim Folarin must win the Oyo State Gubernatorial election. Folarin did not win. I believe the remains of that ram ended up in the bellies of the Pastors. Only God knows how many animals lost their lives at ritual conclaves because Nigeria held an election in 2023.
I have tried, thus far, to document the highlights of March 18 for record purposes. But what next for Nigeria? I argued in this same space last week, that despite the avalanche of litigations that would arise, not much would change. Dr. Chidi Odinkalu says the next round of voting is by the judiciary. It is unfortunate that it is the judiciary that would determine a matter that should be the actual prerogative of the electorate. But given the nature of our election jurisprudence, the judiciary cannot cure all the ills that we have seen. Apparently, Nigerians have not learnt any lessons from the errors of the past. In 2007, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua publicly confessed that the 2007 process that brought him into power was flawed. He pledged to correct the situation. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan kept that promise in 2011, and again in 2015. Between then and now, all the gains have been erased, and we seem to have returned to the pre-1999 era. What is the way forward? One, the task of electoral reform is not yet over. It has just started. The emergence of the Electoral Act 2022 generated a lot of excitement but these elections have exposed many loopholes in it. It has to be reviewed.
Two, we are far from where we should be with regard to technology. BVAS, IREV sounded like nice phrases, but they triggered more problems. Is Nigeria ready for technology or we are just gambling? Three, the independence of the electoral body must be addressed. INEC’s integrity is a major issue today. Rotimi Amaechi, former Governor, and former Minister of Transportation has blown the whistle that the INEC Chair, Professor Yakubu Mahmood was nominated by someone close to the President-elect and that he once worked with Governor Wike at the Federal level. Wike probably knew this all along, but he is now speaking up because it is convenient for him to condemn the same government he served. What we can take from his protest is that going forward, INEC Chair, Commissioners, and Returning Officers should never be appointees or nominees of the ruling government and party. We have to go back to the Uwais Commission Report! Above all, electoral offenders must be punished. We must re-open the conversation about the need for an Electoral Offences Commission, passed by the Senate in July 2021, blocked by the House of Representatives. But now here we are, with thugs all over the place, from INEC officials to palaces, worship places, to social media, making Nigerian democracy a joke. And how can this country find healing and reconciliation after all the wounds inflicted on all fronts in this electoral season?
After the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections, now heavily disputed, Nigeria goes to the polls again on March 18, 2023 to elect Governors and members of state legislatures in 28 out of 36 states of the Federation. There would be no state elections in Kogi, Anambra, Ondo, Imo, Edo, Osun, Bayelsa and Ekiti which are in the off-cycle election belt. However, this weekend’s elections were meant to hold last Saturday, March 11, but the polls had to be rescheduled on account of the disputes that arose from the February 25 Presidential election and the orders given by the Court of Appeal acting as the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. Three political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), acting in self-defence in its case, had gone to court to seek permission to be allowed to inspect the materials used for the election by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) which announced the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives’ Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as winner of the election with 8. 974, 726 million of total votes cast. The Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubaar, and Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party had challenged the results as declared by INEC. The court ruled in their favour on Friday, March 3. By Tuesday, March 7, the ruling APC and its candidate, now president-elect, also sought the leave of court to have access to the election materials. INEC also approached the court requesting that it should vary the order it gave earlier permitting PDP, LP, to inspect election materials, by granting it leave to reconfigure the Bi-Modal Verification Accreditation System (BVAS) ahead of the Gubernatorial and State legislature elections scheduled for March 11.
Counsel to INEC had told the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal that their client would need a minimum of five days to reconfigure the BVAS. As it turned out, the two other matters were determined on Wednesday, March 8. The court granted INEC’s request to reconfigure the BVAS, but it did not rule that this should have any effect on the March 11 date. The Court granted APC its prayers. But in yet another matter, it refused to grant the Labour Party its request to inspect the INEC data base, and oversee the reconfiguration of the BVAS. On its own, after a review of the Court’s ruling, INEC announced that “it was far too late” for the reconfiguration of BVAS to be concluded within two days in over 170, 000 polling units nationwide. Consequently, the Commission rescheduled the Gubernatorial and state Assembly elections till March 18. INEC promised that it would obey the orders of court: grant the petitioners access to inspect election materials, and also upload data to its back-end server and make Certified True Copies of same available to all parties in the matter.
It is now election week again, as Nigerians are expected to troop out this Saturday to participate in state elections. They would be doing so against the background of the drama generated by the elections of February 25. As various international observers have pointed out: Chatham House, Ambassador Mark Green, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, the US Observer Mission, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times, South Africa’s Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), Reuters, YIAGA Africa, The Guardian UK, BBC, Chinese News Agency, Washington Post, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, the African Union Election Observation Mission to Nigeria, ECOWAS, EU, UN, and the West African Elders Forum (WAEF) among others, the emergent consensus was that whereas the people of Nigeria showed much zeal and determination towards the polls, the entire exercise fell short of the people’s expectations. In other words, INEC disappointed the people. I have already offered a catalogue of the sheer incompetence and poor performance put up by INEC in an earlier commentary (see “Nigeria: February 25 and the Aftermath,”ThisDay, Tuesday, March 7) read that here. Things have gone so bad that in fact the People’s Democratic Party led by its Presidential candidate and other party leaders had to stage a protest from the party’s headquarters to the Headquarters of INEC, on Monday, March 6. They asked for a cancellation of the election, and submitted a protest letter. A week later, the Labour Party in a statement issued by its Chief Spokesperson, Dr Yunusa Tanko, is also threatening to call out its supporters on a peaceful protest to challenge INEC’s refusal to obey the order of Court to allow the party to inspect election materials. Tanko insists that the court order was duly served on INEC and a reminder was also sent to it. But whereas INEC is busy reconfiguring the BVAS, it has ignored other court orders. It has failed to keep its promise. Other political parties are aggrieved. It must be noted that on three previous occasions since 1999 that elections were postponed, Nigeria usually cited either security or logistics reasons: 2011, 2015, 2019, but in 2023, INEC’s excuse is that it has to reconfigure its equipment!
The biggest calamity in Nigeria’s democratic process this time around is the embarrassing conduct of the electoral umpire. The people have lost trust in INEC. The institution suffers a credibility crisis. The worst thing that can happen to any public institution is to end up in the eyes of the same people it is established to serve as a fibbing, clumsy, unreliable institution. Between February 25 and now, INEC has broken virtually all the promises it made to the people of Nigeria, including the ones its Chairman rolled out for effect on the floor of Chatham House in London! INEC’s much-trumpeted confidence in the deployment of technology as enabled by the law and its own guidelines has been shown to be nothing more than an exercise in hypocrisy. On February 25, results from polling units were transmitted to the INEC portal called iREV, but not Presidential election results from the same polling units. More than a week after the elections, INEC could not fully load results unto its portals. Many voters could not get their Permanent Voter’s Cards, the same cards that have been sighted in bushes, forests, in the hands of foreigners and shadowy apartments across the country. INEC could not distribute its own PVCs! The Court of Justice Obiora Egwuatu has now ruled, March 9, in favour of two persons: Kofoworola Olusegun and Wilson Allwell that they should be allowed to vote with their Temporary Voter’s Cards (TVCs), but although the ruling is in personam, the matter having not been filed in a representative capacity, INEC says it will appeal the Federal High Court ruling. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no other electoral process has been this confusing and uncertain.
Those who are familiar with the subject argue that the postponement of the state elections alone comes with “staggering economic loss.” It could also harm voter enthusiasm and voter turn-out rates. The perception that the elections could be rigged at will is a major issue. Galaxy Backbone, Nigeria’s ICT services provider owned by the Federal Government, has confirmed that it had to fend off over 200 cyberattacks during the Presidential and National Assembly elections. Perception is important in any electoral process. Even IT experts believe that INEC is lying when it says it wants to reconfigure BVAS – the same INEC that cannot figure out whatever “technical glitches” that sabotaged its operations more than two weeks after the fact.
Every aggrieved party has been advised to go to the courts, and seek redress through legal and constitutional means. President Muhammadu Buhari has also expressly declared that there is no plan to annul the Presidential election – that is impossible, we are in a democracy - not under military rule. What anyone can hold on to is the general admonition that INEC should by now have carried out a thorough review of the elections of February 25, to understand what worked, what did not, what went amiss, and to learn the relevant lessons and ensure that these are used to deliver a much better process on March 18. But do we ever learn in Nigeria – a country where amnesia is a national malady and rascality seems at once genetic and contagious? INEC is expected to rebuild the people’s confidence. It is in the best interest of everyone that INEC succeeds on Saturday, March 18. The errors of February 25 have pushed the people to a corner where they are poised for war in various parts of the country. The people are determined more than before to defend their votes. Gubernatorial and state legislature elections are mainly local elections, and understandably, they are invested with a higher dosage of emotionalism. The tension in the country is at an all-time high. The thugs who snatched ballot boxes two weeks ago may find that it won’t be easy to do so this week. The battle will be tough and fierce in some of the states: Edo, Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Kogi, Oyo, and especially Lagos.
As was the case in the February 25 elections, ethnicity, religion, power and territory would be big issues. Against all odds, after the vote count in that process, Labour Party which was accused of not having a party structure ended up with more than 25% of the votes in 12 states including the Federal Capital Territory, with 6 winners in the Senate, and 34 in the House of Representatives, coming third in the Presidential Election, which the party says was rigged against it. The Labour Party would seek to consolidate on its February 25 election victories this week. Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Benue would be major battle grounds for the party. And Lagos in particular, where the Labour Party won majority votes and would want to repeat the feat. The President-elect was Governor of Lagos for two terms. He is the Godfather of the ruling APC in Lagos. To beat him and his party’s incumbent Governor in Lagos is not impossible as the Labour Party has shown, but to do so twice will be quite a feat. And that is why there has been so much desperation in the campaigns in Lagos in the lead up to March 18. The APC has played the ethnic card against the candidate of the Labour Party in a most vicious manner. His offence is that his mother is Igbo. He is also married to an Igbo woman. His grandmother is also said to be Igbo. And he bears Patrick. He bears Chinedu. He speaks Igbo. The ethnic irridentists of Lagos politics have been swearing that Lagos belongs to the Yoruba, it is not a no-man’s-land, and anyone with a small drop of Igbo blood would not be allowed to become Governor. They forget that the Rhodes-Vivour family has been a Yoruba family in Lagos for more than five generations. And those who voted for the Labour Party in Lagos State on February 25 were not necessarily Igbos. They cut across all ethnic groups, and they were probably mostly Yorubas. Those who are targeting Igbos must desist from doing so. They must remember Rwanda, where the politics of ethic hate resulted in a massive blow-out. If they don’t know where Rwanda is, let them remember how ethnic politics catalyzed Nigeria’s civil war.
And for the benefit of those who think Igbo votes would be frustrated by burning markets dominated by Igbos in Lagos, I draw their attention to the Lagos Area Council election of 1950. As reported in the Daily Times of Wednesday, October 18, 1950 to wit: “ELECTION RESULTS: Demo-Labour Alliance Wins: 18 Seats Against Area Council’s 6”. The Demo-Labour Market Alliance won 18 out of the 24 seats in the new Lagos Town Council. Out of these, there were non-Yoruba winners: Nduka Eze in Ward C, Mbonu Ojike in Ward D, Anyiam F. and Gogo, C.N in Ward F. Before then, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo man represented Lagos between 1947 and 1951 in the Legislative Council of Nigeria. It was in this same area called Lagos that Emmanuel Ebubedike from Ozubulu in present-day Anambra State won election in the First Republic to represent Ajeromi-Badagry-Ifelodun in the Western Region House of Assembly. Each time I cite this example, I am reminded that it was Ebubedike who first snatched the Mace in the Western House on May 22, 1962 and turned it into a weapon of assault. He didn’t grab the mace because he was Igbo. Everyone had literally lost their head in the Western Region on that occasion.
In more recent times, a certain Oghene Emma Egho represented Amuwo-Odofin Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives on the platform of the PDP in 2015. The truth is that Lagos is a cosmopolitan melting pot of cultures, tropes and influences and its diversity and accommodative, liberal temper is part of the city’s mystique and essence. It has been reported that some acclaimed Lagos “omo oniles” – the self-styled land-owning families of Lagos are beginning to revoke lease agreements to remind non-Lagosians that Lagos belongs to its indigenous people! It has also been reported that some traditional rulers in Ibeju-Lekki are withdrawing traditional titles that they had conferred on some Igbos in their quarters. All of this just because a Yoruba son whose mother happens to be Igbo wants to be Governor? Absolutely ridiculous. There are no illegitimate children in Africa! It is a good thing that Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, the incumbent Lagos Governor has publicly decried ethnic politics. Other stakeholders in Lagos politics should do the same. The President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, should step forward also to let everyone know that the people of Lagos, both indigenes and non-indigenes have the right to vote for the leaders of their choice.
The security agencies have their work cut out for them. They were conspicuously ineffectual on February 25. The police have been given money and equipment and the necessary support they asked for from President Muhammadu Buhari. The stakes may have been high on February 25. They would be higher on March 18. It goes without saying that the international community is watching. Nigeria’s success is critical for the stability of neighbouring countries and the larger project of democracy, good governance and accountability in African states. INEC and other agencies involved in #NigeriaDecides2023 should not turn Nigeria into the laughing stock of Africa.
Nigeria held its Presidential and National Assembly elections on Saturday, February 25, 2023 across all the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory. It was the most competitive election since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the seventh in the cycle. It was also the election with the lowest turn-out: just about 25. 2 million voters voted in that election. Close to one million votes were voided, the declared winner won just about 8.8% of the total votes cast out of 93.4 million registered voters, with a collated figure of 87.2 million registered voters. Many commentators have attributed the low voter turn-out to voter suppression, voter intimidation and the scarcity of money and fuel, although those may not have been serious reasons for voter apathy. The people were enthusiastic, but they were disappointed by INEC’s gross incompetence.
In 1999, voter turn-out was 52.3 %; in 2003, over 63 million voters showed up– that is 69.1% turn out in Nigeria’s Presidential and National Assembly elections of that year; in 2007, the reported figure was 57.5%; and in 2011, 53.7%, with the loser in that election - General Buhari getting as many as a little over 15 million votes. In 2015, the turn-out figure dropped to 43.7%; later in 2019, 34. 75%, The bigger point to be made is that Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election has had the worst turn-out in the whole of Africa in the last decade. In 2017, Rwanda recorded a 98.15% voter turn-out, which was considered the highest in the world.
What we can hold on to is that whereas Nigerians were very enthusiastic about the National Assembly and Presidential elections of February 25, 2023, there were great apprehensions among the people which hindered the eventual outcome of the process. Nigerians now have a President-elect in the person of Senator/Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with the lowest margin of victory in contemporary Nigerian history. The total number of valid votes in this election is not even up to the total number of votes won by just two candidates in previous elections. But what the law states is that the man with the majority of votes and the highest number of votes in two thirds of the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory is to be declared winner. Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution which addresses this is already a matter of contention in both the public domain and the courts. It would be interesting to see how in the course of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunals, this diminishes or enhances the county’s jurisprudence in that regard.
But for now, what we know is that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, winner of the Presidential election of February 25. INEC did not also waste time in giving the Certificate of Return to the APC candidate. We have not seen the same haste with the other elections, the National Assembly elections of February 25 and their legislative winners. None of them has received the Certificate of Return the following day, or nine days after. But the President-elect got his post-haste. He has also since embarked on victory laps to key political figures including the President in his home state of Daura, his wife, supported by other APC wives has visited Mrs Aisha Buhari in Aso Villa, and to cap it all, the President-elect has led a delegation to the Oba of Lagos just to say thank you. Tinubu has since moved into the Defence House in Abuja, the holding bay for a President in waiting. By now, he would be receiving daily security briefings from all relevant agencies of state. In terms of optics, Tinubu himself is already hob-nobbing with the international diplomatic community. He is visiting local traditional rulers and taking messages from foreign diplomats. He has done a victory lap of sorts to Lagos and no one should be surprised if he goes to all principal Yoruba towns and kings. He is playing a game of self-affirmation, laying concrete beneath his “Emilokan” (it’s my turn”) declaration. He has not only managed to win the election; he is already seeking to consolidate the gain by playing a fast game ahead of others. He is striving to establish himself as master and owner of the game.
I think I have a fair idea of what is playing out. The last time I ran for elective office – in the 2019 Gubernatorial race, I recall some wise persons in our camp, telling us at the time, that the way Nigerian politics is played, it is better to win the election and allow other parties and candidates to be the ones to complain. While they are preparing to go to court, you take charge of the victory and take the game to another level. Resort to the tribunal and the courts is constitutionally provided for as the place of last resort for aggrieved politicians, but the received wisdom in Nigerian politics is that if you know your way, that could be difficult to enforce at the gubernatorial level and even more difficult at the Presidential level. Nigerian politicians seem to have this implicit confidence that if you know how the system works, it would be difficult to lose the certificate of return that has been issued to you. The matter is further compounded by the fact that election matters are sui generis. This is a euphemism for the fact that in an election matter, the verdict can go in any direction.
The heavy burden of proof is on the plaintiff to prove that he has been cheated. The courts have a presumption of regularity in favour of the respondent and the electoral commission. The test in election matters is substantial compliance. It is partly why some of the election cases that go all the way to the Supreme Court always produce strange outcomes. In Presidential matters, it would be recalled that the Nigerian Supreme Court has never up-turned any Presidential dispute from Awolowo vs. Shagari to Atiku vs. Jonathan and after. Their Lordships of the Supreme Court always find a way of ruling in favour of the man who already has the Certificate of Return! The ink was yet to dry on the ballot papers before INEC produced and handed over the Certificates of Return for the Presidential election to the President-elect and the Vice-President-Elect as announced for the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The general impression, among Nigerians, with the sole exception of the supporters of the ruling party now declared elected, is that Nigeria’s electoral commission simply keyed into the President-elect’s “emilokan message”. Whereas the technological innovation in form of BVAS – the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System and iREV - the INEC results reporting portal -was supposed to ensure transparency and accountability in form of real-time loading of results from polling units, on election day, the same BVAS process as provided for in Section 60 of the Electoral Act and Clause 38 of INEC’s own Guidelines failed on election day. To be specific, it worked seamlessly for National Assembly elections but failed to upload Presidential elections. The same device, in the same locations, in the same elections conducted on the same day chose to behave in a discriminatory manner due, I suspect, to human error or human failure. But INEC places the blame conveniently on “technical glitches” arising from the fact that this was not an off-cycle election but a general election. The people were assured that the glitches would be fixed by the engineers. Nine days later, INEC was yet to load the results from over 176, 800 polling units for the Presidential election on its portal, the engineers have not fixed anything, and yet they have declared a winner of the Presidential election. It is difficult to dismiss the aggrieved Nigerians who have blamed INEC for imposing something in the shape of “election magic” on Nigerians on February 25. The major political parties that lost out are on their way to the courts. They have asked for the leave of court to inspect INEC documents to put evidence together. The People’s Democratic Party has staged “a black uniform” demonstration in Abuja to show the party’s displeasure.
But would this make any difference? Nigeria is a funny country. Heavens don’t fall around here when people’s expectations are not fulfilled. Not in normal, everyday life. Not during elections. Expectations die daily in Nigeria. The truth is: the people are used to that reality. They hem and haw when they are aggrieved. The same people would later move on, and behave as if nothing is amiss. The psychology of the Nigerian to adapt to everything and anything is one of the major wonders of the world. The APC strategists know this. They believe it. It is why they can beat their chests and boast with the authority of the courts. They have not only been declared elected, they have assumed the authority of the courts. Meet us there! Their confidence is typically Nigerian. In reality, there is no truly independent institution in Nigeria. When you look deeply enough, you’d find some magic lying underneath.
It is okay for the international community to urge Nigerians to seek legal and necessary means to resolve disputes. That is the standard script in these matters as a way of maintaining peace and order. It is even more important to prevent a country of over 200 million from descending into chaos. Nigeria is so delicate and so strategic, you can do just about anything, people can hurt you as they wish, and no matter how, everyone would still beg you to calm down. Hence, the aggrieved political parties are expected to calm down. Only three of the parties are openly aggrieved by the way out of 18 political parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Only three parties are talking of going to court. Other aggrieved parties like Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress (AAC) have been heard making small noises, but the majority of the other parties, like the Social Democratic Party (SDP) seem to have taken a pragmatic view of the matter. Nobody should be surprised if some of the other smaller political parties show up in court to support the President-elect, and argue that there was nothing wrong with the elections of February 25. No one should be surprised either if INEC finds ways of blocking the access of the aggrieved parties to critical data and evidence.
Those who will be hurt, those to whom Nigeria has happened, after a manner of speech, are those Nigerians who got brutalized before, during and after the election (I hope Mrs Efedi Bina Jennifer’s face has healed – she got stabbed in the face on election day in Surulere, Lagos), those whose votes were never counted because BVAS failed or INEC officials threw away their papers into the bush, or simply refused to upload results, those whose votes were set ablaze because hoodlums seized ballot boxes and set fire to them, those who voted, heard the results at the polling units, only to hear INEC Headquarters later announcing a different set of results. It must be painful to such persons to be told that their choice was determined by “technical glitches”. And now, four days to another round of elections – INEC seeks the leave of court to reconfigure its BVAS. What INEC could not do for months, and in nine days, it wants to do in 4 days? Candidly, no be juju be that? The biggest loser in the just concluded election is of course INEC. For failing the people, it failed as an institution. It lost the people’s trust and confidence. Whatever it does going forward, the people would be full of doubts. I pity Professor Yakubu Mahmood, the INEC Chairman. Whatever reputation he may have had before now, has been thrown out of the window. He won’t be the first INEC Chairman that would end up on the wrong side of history. But he may end up as the most vilified, and go down in history as the man who presided over the most competitive and most disputed elections in Nigerian history since the return to civilian rule in 1999. How does he hope to move about distinguished company when all this is won and lost?
He has now promised to conduct better elections on March 11 – the Gubernatorial and Houses of Assembly elections. The stakes are lower. If the technology – BVAS and iREV - works smoothly on March 11, that would be solid proof that February 25 was truly an exercise in witchcraft. Both ways: INEC and Yakubu Mahmood will lose. It does not matter what they do on Saturday, March 11. They have failed woefully in the court of public opinion. Besides, the security agencies were nowhere to be found on election day. In their presence, unscrupulous voters suppressed and intimidated voters, snatched ballot boxes, set ballot boxes ablaze – most of the reports indicated that the security agencies stood arms akimbo and did nothing. In one report, the police also helped ad hoc INEC officials to thumb-print ballot papers. The police have not reported any arrests nor have they come forward to disown the men who wore police uniforms. The same police collected money and equipment from President Buhari to ensure a hitch-free election. The only security agency that showed up on election day was the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) whose officials arrested persons who moved money about to buy votes or tried bank transfers to influence voters. The only news that came from the Civil Defence was that its officials had an accident on their way to a polling booth. That must have been due to careless driving because there was no traffic on the roads on election day! General Lucky Irabor boasted that soldiers would give anybody who tried to disrupt the elections, “a bloody nose”. Nobody saw the soldiers on duty!
What next for Nigeria, then? I believe it is a good thing to test our laws – the Electoral Act, the 1999 Constitution and INEC guidelines to deepen our democracy and jurisprudence. But I do not think that the courts would up-turn the Presidential election. Judges are also citizens. They know how the game is played. They will not allow themselves to be used as scapegoats when other institutions of state have failed. What we all can hold on to is Bola Tinubu’s promise of conciliation, unity and his agenda for prosperity. We may not have paid close enough attention to his agenda for “restored hope” before now, but it is time to do so. We must take charge of the future, and define for the President-elect what Nigeria needs going forward. Anyone thinking and dreaming that he would relinquish that certificate of return, which he says he regards, as “a world cup trophy” should stop dreaming. For Nigeria, the days ahead are bound to be even more interesting. I wait to be proven wrong.
It is yet another moment of transition for Nigeria as the country goes to the polls in 4 days’ time to elect a new President and members of the National Assembly in what amounts to a seventh cycle of general elections since the country’s return to democratic, civilian rule in 1999. One President will be elected, President Muhammadu Buhari who became President on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015, having completed his maximum two-term limit of eight years is not on the ballot. All the 109 seats in the Senate are up for election as is the case with all the 360 seats in the House of Representatives. The date of this first election is Saturday, February 25.
The second general election is on March 11 for the election of Governors in 28 states and 993 members of State Houses of Assembly, both to be held in 8, 809 wards/registration areas across the country, 176, 606 polling units , overseen by about 1.4 million staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with a total of 93.4 million voters participating. INEC says there will be no election in 240 polling units due to security reasons, voters having tactically avoided the same polling units and having refused to register in the same units– in the North East – 67, South East – 64, North Central – 49, North West – 47, South South – 8 South West- 5. The cancellation of these 240 units without voters is a confirmation of how the challenge of insecurity is one major threat to Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process. The other threats include voter suppression, voter apathy, violence, vote buying, the turbulence arising from the scarcity of new naira notes and fuel, and the general apathy in the land further deepened by high rate of inflation at 21.82%, unemployment – 33%, poverty, and the general high cost of living.
Nigeria goes to the polls this week, tottering on the edge of the cliff. Days to the election, there have been reports of violence in parts of the country as a result of a naira re-design policy introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in October 2022, to address money supply issues, encourage a cashless economy, deepen financial intermediation, check illicit financial transactions and ransom payment for kidnapping and overall, to boost economic growth but that policy has now resulted in utter chaos. The new re-designed notes are not in circulation in the desired quantities, the return of old denominations of N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes has been problematic, and on top of it all, depositors cannot have access to their money. On the eve of a general election, both the poor and the rich are lamenting that they can’t have access to money. The effect is that there have been direct attacks on banks across the country, Automated Teller Machines, and Point of Sales Centres (POS) have been set ablaze, including offices of the Central Bank. Many have died.
While the CBN claims that it has released new notes into circulation and that an otherwise necessary policy is being sabotaged by the political class looking for cash to buy votes and voters; opponents of the CBN’s policy question the timing of the policy and the difficulties imposed on the people. For many Nigerians, the big issue is not the election, but the politicization of the CBN’s policy on naira redesign. State Governors of the ruling party- All Progressives Congress have gone to court to sue the Federal Government, the CBN, and the President in two different suits. APC Governors and stakeholders are fighting their own government and openly disagreeing with their President. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has asked to be joined as co-defendants through AG Edo State and AG Bayelsa. Can you imagine members of the ruling party fighting their own government days to a general election, and the opposition supporting the President who belongs to the ruling party? The matter comes up tomorrow, Wednesday, February 22 at the Supreme Court, three days to the election as the apex court takes critical decisions if it would. It would prove to be a momentous moment in Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process, given the weightiness of the issues before their Lordships.
Tomorrow, assuming that all the suits have been properly consolidated with all joinders accommodated, and expecting that no one brings another red-herring to further delay the court and the process, their Lordships are expected to make pronouncements on a number of issues viz: (1) whether or not the apex court has jurisdiction to hear the matter in AG Kaduna and ors. vs AG Federation, as originally presented, (2) whether or not there is a dispute between the states and the Federal Government to warrant the apex court’s original jurisdiction; (3) whether or not the original matter should have been instituted at the Federal High Court and not the Supreme Court; (4) whether or not the President of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari can, acting in the interest of public policy, tactically undermine the authority of the Supreme Court as he did in his national broadcast of Thursday, February 16, when he ordered the CBN to continue to release old N200 notes till April 10, in flagrant violation of the extant Order of the Apex court of February 8, reaffirmed on February 15, to the effect that the status quo should be maintained until “the hearing of the motion on notice”. The Supreme Court is yet to hear the motion on notice. Will the Supreme Court “bark and bite” as it has been advised to do, in line with the rules established in State vs Solomon, Abacha vs Fawehinmi, Governor of Lagos State vs Ojukwu, and in line with Section 287 of the 1999 Constitution all of which affirm the supremacy of the order of Court, even if it is a nullity. And what would the Supreme Court have to say about those state Governors who have also similarly overruled the Supreme Court with the Governors in Kogi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Ogun telling the people in their states to keep spending the old notes whatever anyone says. In many of these states though, the re-designed old notes have lost both street credibility and legitimacy as the people opt to err on the side of caution.
The situation in Nigeria is further compounded, days to the election, by the scarcity of fuel, even if that is easing off. Nigerians are going to the polls this year, angry, hungry and confused. The only rabbit that has not yet been pulled out of the hat is some dubious persons going to court to secure a midnight, black market court injunction as was done in the past, to try to stop the election. Whatever happens at the Supreme Court of Nigeria tomorrow would say a lot about the courage, wisdom and integrity of the present apex court. What Nigerians can hold on to is the continued assurance by the President, Muhammadu Buhari that his administration is committed to seeing the elections through. Having given the same assurance repeatedly, he appears resolute and convincing. Ahead of the elections, he has told Nigerians that the government has the required security measures in place to protect the electoral process and defend the average Nigerian’s right to exercise his or her franchise. The President continues to send across the right signals on both the political process and the naira redesign policy, the ownership of which he has not shied away from, even if when he uses recent opportunities to campaign for the Presidential candidate of his party, the APC, many try to read meanings into the President’s campaign. Nigerians no doubt want to be given the opportunity to make a free choice in the 2023 elections and that they would be given a fair playing ground to do so. What President Buhari is expected to do, is to keep his promise in that regard, and ensure a smooth transition, and his job would have been done.
One other major positive factor as Nigeria goes to the polls is the confidence with which the electoral umpire, INEC, continues to reassure Nigerians that it is indeed ready for the polls, regardless of whatever challenges may have been thrown up in the course of preparations. Despite the scarcity of the national currency, the CBN says it stands firm by the INEC to ensure that any cash that is required for logistics and other payments is made available to guarantee successful polls. Between the last general elections in 2019 and now, more than 50 INEC facilities have been destroyed, attacked, compromised, set ablaze literally by unknown gunmen. INEC materials have been destroyed, generators carted away, permanent voters cards stolen, majorly in the Southern part of the country. There is no evidence of arrests or convictions. Yet, INEC says it is ready. Just like the CBN, INEC has also received the expression of support from the National Security Adviser (NSA), that the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) has what it takes to protect the polls and the electorate. Hmm. Those who have expressed doubts about the capacity of the security agencies cannot be blamed. The security agencies are the weakest link in Nigeria’s preparations for the elections. Where were these same inter-agency stakeholders when unknown assailants attacked INEC facilities and locations? Why have they proven completely negligent in addressing the threats and reality of violence before the election? The default response in the circumstance is for the Nigerian state to call out soldiers, and in fact the military has also been overheard saying that they are ready for Nigeria’s elections. Hmm. We all need to be reminded ahead of Saturday that this is an election not war! Everyone is behaving as if Nigeria is going to war. Relatives are calling on each other to stockpile food. Many families, especially the privileged ones, have fled to safe havens across the border, in anticipation that Nigeria could descend into chaos. This must not end up as a militarized election.
The good thing about this country, however, is that there are many who are driven by sheer resilience and optimism. Those are the ones who will troop out on Saturday to vote no matter the odds. Since the last general election, a large population of Nigerians have come of age. Between the ages of 18 and 34, they constitute the bulk – more than 40% actually - of the voting population. They belong to the “Speak Out” (“Soro Soke”) generation that came into full reckoning in 2021 during the anti-police brutality #EndSars protests. They want to take their country back, and they constitute the backbone of what has become the Peter Obi movement under the platform of the Labour Party, which Peter Obi and his supporters have built from nothing into a strong force. Many of the persons within this demographic category may have been structurally disenfranchised, but their enthusiasm would be a major point of analysis when a post-mortem of the current season is done. To vote in this election, the Nigerian voter needs a PVC, the only means of voting identification and verification that is recognized by law and the much-acclaimed deus ex machina to Nigeria’s electoral problems called the BVAS – Bio-modal Voter Accreditation System. Sadly, many Nigerians on the voters’ register could not get their PVCs. This all-important item was found in drainage channels, in wrong hands, and in parts of the country, INEC officials made quick trade selling PVCs. Voters complained of frustration and ethnic discrimination. INEC continues to boast that the BVAS is error-proof and that having used it in off-cycle elections, Nigerians can be sure that answers have been provided for electoral fraud and over-voting. The question is - really? The same BVAS, the same technology, that is a matter of dispute in the July 16, 2022 Gubernatorial election in Osun State? The least that INEC can do is to ensure that those Nigerians who have PVCs are able to vote without frustration, and that INEC technology back-end works and that the margin of human error is carefully managed. It goes without saying that a general election is far more complex and demanding than smaller scale, off-cycle elections.
All eyes are watching Nigeria. Oftentimes, Nigerians forget how important their country is, and so they act in an absent-minded manner, leaders and citizens alike. Nigeria is the most populous country in the Black world. It is the largest market in Africa. The country sits atop enormous natural resources, in the sub-soil, the sea-bed and the continental shelf. The country’s only problem is that it is populated by human beings who have failed to move with the times, beyond primordial, centrifugal tendencies. The world is watching and many are interested in Nigeria’s election because any form of disruption in Nigeria could have far-reaching implications and consequences for geo-politics. President Buhari was quoted recently saying that the international community must not intervene in Nigeria’s elections. That statement must have been poorly phrased because in 2015, the same President Buhari then seeking power and office had openly welcomed foreign interest in Nigeria’s politics. He has since corrected himself by playing host to the EU Observation Mission for the 2023 elections. The CBN Governor has even, most recently met with foreign ambassadors in the country. No country is an island unto itself. What we deplore is the grovelling, sycophantic, neo-colonial, ineffectual rush by Nigerian political candidates to places like Chatham House to seek endorsement. Nigeria will be in the news in a more intensive manner until the elections are won and lost. Certain foreign governments, including the US and UK have declared that any Nigerian politician that behaves in an unscrupulous manner will be put on their countries’ black list. We live under a rules-based international community. Politicians, beware, and indeed the politicians are the problem – their greed, selfishness, lack of patriotism and wickedness.
When all this is over and done with, the same professional political class that has been paying scant attention to the Electoral Act 2022, which was expected to be a game-changer and has so far not proven to be so, must learn that the rule of law should be obeyed. There has been no proven regard for the Peace Accords that the politicians signed. Peace must be allowed to prevail. Perhaps, Nigeria must begin to reconsider its system of government. The current Presidential system of government is too wasteful and indulgent. The way forward may well be a return to a parliamentary system of government or a hybrid of the presidential-parliamentary system. In the meantime, let every Nigerian of voting age, with a PVC go out to vote wisely. The future of this country lies in your vote.
In Africa, this year, there would be a total of more than 10 general elections in countries across the continent, particularly Sierra Leone in June, Sudan in July, Zimbabwe in July, Liberia in October, Gabon in October, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December but Nigeria’s general election, the seventh in the cycle since the country’ return to civilian rule in 1999 is the bellwether election, given Nigeria’s leadership position in the continent, the country’s population which grants it many automatic advantages from market to political leverage, and that makes it clearly an election that both the local and the international community must worry about. Whatever happens in Nigeria’s elections, this month till March 11, 2023 and thereafter could have implications for the stability of the West African sub-region, and by extension, Africa. The big problem that the international community faces is that major stakeholders in the Nigerian election do not care. They think only of their individual and group, party ambitions. They can’t be bothered by any big picture about Nigeria’s role or place in the world. They are not interested in the country. They just want to win. It is a dangerous scenario, and that is why the grammar of politics in Nigeria has been coloured, characterized, determined by vitriol, hate as well as religious and ethnic extremism.
People that we consider otherwise sensible, at least on the surface of it, and going by their antecedents, have been threatening that they will either commit suicide or burn down the country’s roof if their principal does not win because it is their candidate’s turn to run the country. That is not democracy, that is psychosis, and no country should be subjected to such end-game. Who are those scallywags who have appropriated unto themselves the right to dictate who the identity of the next Nigerian President must be? This is majorly the substance of political conversation in Nigeria today. Nobody must be allowed to do that. The people of Nigeria, the 93.4 million voters who are registered for the 2023 general election must be allowed to exercise their franchise and choose feely and wisely, without let or hindrance.
Those who claim that they will commit suicide if their candidate fails, should please go ahead and do so, having chosen to die in other people’s war, but they must be reminded ahead of the fact, that here in Nigeria, it is a felony to attempt suicide and fail at it. If you want to die because Atiku or Tinubu or Peter Obi or Kwankwaso or any other Presidential candidate does not win, please go ahead and harvest your idiocy. Under section 327 of the Criminal Code, (applicable in Southern Nigeria), it is stated clearly that “Any person who attempts to kill himself is guilty of a misdemeanor, and is liable to imprisonment for one year.” This is on all fours with Section 231 of the Penal code, applicable to Northern Nigeria. It is important therefore that as Dele Farotimi, lawyer and activist, has pointed out in a book of the same title, “nobody should die in their war” that is - nobody should lose their lives because politicians simply want to realize their personal ambitions, the same politicians who want other people’s children to die while they have all taken theirs to safe havens in different parts of the world, the same politicians who are using Nigeria to play games, indeed the same politicians who do not care whether you live or die.
The big caveat, as Nigeria goes to the polls on February 25, 11 days from today, is: voter beware! It must be possible for every voter to go to the polls on election day and vote freely. Over the weekend, two incidents occurred that should attract attention and concern. In Eti-Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State, a certain traditional ruler in Igbara community reportedly summoned a meeting of about 60 persons from the community where he told them that every member of the community must vote for “our party”. He directed further, that voters must take pictures of their ballot papers to show compliance, otherwise they would have problems within the community after the election. It was an open threat, no holds barred. The Baale, as such persons are called, even asked the members in attendance to show their Permanent Voters’ Cards. Out of 60 persons, 20 had their PVCs. Notwithstanding, he warned the 20 persons that nobody in the community would be allowed to jeopardize his own future and the future of his children by failing to follow his directive. In a democracy, this is most absurd. How can a traditional ruler arrogate to himself the rights of every member within his domain? That is not democracy, that is feudalism. But does anyone know how many other communities in Nigeria where people have been similarly threatened, in open, undisguised space, places of religious worship where same threats have been issued or professional associations and so on where people have been told to vote according to communal dictates, not their conscience, and to face the consequences if they were to act otherwise?
The potency of the threat lies in the reality that Nigeria has neither the mechanism nor the personnel to checkmate this. It is not impossible that a few days to this year’s general elections, the contest will be determined not by the people’s choices but by ethnic bigots, shamanists, and clerics of different persuasion who will invoke dubious piety and ask the people to vote in a particular manner. The majority of Nigerian voters do not know any better. They could vote like zombies in deference to what they have been told. Nigeria’s literacy rate is less than 50%; ethnic and religious leaders wield a disproportionate amount of power in Africa’s biggest democracy.
It is for this reason that we must worry more about the threat of violence in Nigeria’s coming elections. Ignorant people, further empowered with election cards, under the influence of corrupt Godfathers could resort to violence at the slightest provocation. They may not even need to be prompted to behave violently. They have been programmed and incentivized to do so. A drunken, hyper-sensitive political crowd could initiate violence even without being provoked. It is the biggest threat that the world has to pay attention to as Nigeria goes to the polls, and the potency of that threat. Last Saturday, the Labour Party held its mega rally in Lagos, with the party’s Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, Ibo, 61, former Governor of the South East state of Anambra, leading the charge. It was meant to be the final rally to end Obi’s total of 37 rallies across Nigeria. Lagos is one of the most critical states in Nigeria’s general elections with a large voting population. No serious Presidential candidate can ignore the state’s voting bloc.
Lagos is in the South West, the political stronghold of the candidate of the ruling party - the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu who had also been Governor for two terms and Godfather of politics in the same state since 1999. Peter Obi daring to hold a final rally in Lagos, was the equivalent of daring to challenge the lion in its own den. Tinubu is widely acclaimed as the “Lion of Bourdillon”, an upscale quarter of Lagos Island. On Saturday, the Lion said nothing. But Labour Party supporters are alleging that the cubs roared, and that those cubs bared their fangs and drew blood. As of yesterday, over 30 supporters of the Labour Party were said to be on admission in different hospitals across the city, nursing different grades of pain and injury. Anyone who wore vests bearing Obi’s image or the logo of the Labour Party was attacked. Vehicles were destroyed, stomachs were ripped open, sharp machetes were used to crack skulls and chests open, many sustained injuries. A determined crowd of Obidients, as they are called still made it to the Tafawa Balewa Square, venue of the rally and managed to express their support for Peter Obi, the most striking revelation of the 2023 electoral process in Nigeria, who built an electoral alternative from nothing into something. He created a movement in the process.
Nigeria’s Electoral Act at Section 128, thereof, frowns at any attempt to apply threat or to do so directly or indirectly against anyone involved in an election or to inflict serious injury, damage, harm or by any means whatsoever. Section 128 (d) prescribes a fine of one million Naira or imprisonment for a term of three years, in the event of an infraction but the wholesale problem with this electoral act touted as a major game-changer in terms of its provisions, is that no serious attempt has been made to enforce it. Nigerian politicians have carried on in open defiance of the law and in contemptuous disregard of the legal framework. They have simply continued with their old ways. Even those lawmakers who made the law do not understand it, leading to the controversy in March 2022 over the constitutionality or otherwise, of Section 84(12) of the same Electoral Act. There is no evidence either that the law enforcement agencies know what the law says or care about their law enforcement responsibilities. The law forbids vote buying, but one of the leading topics in Nigeria today is how politicians are struggling to buy votes, through access to old or new notes and how a naira redesign policy on the eve of the elections has frustrated access to cash.
The law talks about the felony of hate speech, abuse, vitriol and heating up the polity. Nobody cares. The level of verbal diarrhea, hate and abuse in this election is unprecedented. Presidential candidates and their surrogates shoot typhoon missiles from the mouth, and they all use expressions such as “civil war” and “World War III” to characterize a general election. One spokesperson even accused a Presidential candidate of holding meetings with Army Chiefs to precipitate a coup. The military hierarchy has reaffirmed its commitment to the constitutional order. State security agents have invited the party agent for a conversation! Nigeria is overtaken by tension, uncertainty and anxiety. More privileged Nigerians have fled town till after the elections. They are in the safe quarters of London, Dubai and the Americas, ready to watch the elections from a distance. Only the poor defend Nigeria’s future. The rich run away at critical times, in brazen demonstration of opportunism. When the elections are over, they return to collect positions and contracts from whoever wins and thus make more profits at the people’s expense. The ones who stay behind may or may not vote. Very few big men and their women venture out to vote on election days in Nigeria.
This is why the needless spectre of destruction, death, disaster and injury that attends every election cycle in Nigeria is condemnable and unjustifiable. The country’s electoral commission, INEC lifted the ban on campaigns in September 2022. Since then, indeed since 2019, when the last general elections were held, more than 50 INEC facilities have been attacked in 22 states across the country, placing the commission in a heavily compromised position. The security agencies have not been able to protect INEC offices despite the existence of an Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES). The National Security Adviser advertises ICCES as some kind of great initiative but sorry, we cannot see the impact. I want to hope that none of the agencies involved in that committee has received state funds that they have refused to deploy appropriately. Apart from the attacks on INEC facilities, the political parties especially: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) have all complained about attacks on their members and supporters across the country. This year alone, there has been an attack on the residence of the spokesperson of the Coalition of United Political parties in Imo State. Peter Obi of the Labour Party and his entourage were attacked after a rally in Katsina on January 24. PDP accused APC members of attacking its members in Lagos on January 27. APC members in Rivers state reported an attack on them in Opobo and Port Harcourt in January, and on February 9, Dr. Abiye Sekibo, Director-General of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council in Rivers narrowly escaped death when his bullet-proof vehicles were riddled with bullets, two of which got through but missed target. Just after that incident in Rivers, there was the report of a clash between APC and PDP supporters in Jigawa. There was also a similar clash between both parties in Lagos in the Aiyetoro, Surulere area on January 27, and yet another incident in Osun on January 30.
What Nigeria is going into looks like war, not an election and that makes it scary. This may affect the efficiency of the electoral body, voter turn-out, and the post-election scenario in the country, especially as the security agencies seem completely overwhelmed and aloof. Labour Party alleges that as the party’s supporters were being attacked in Lagos, security officers simply looked the other way! Nigerians have so badly mismanaged the people’s trust that even law enforcement officers do not want a share of their war. The biggest loser will be President Muhammadu Buhari whose attempt to define his legacy in eight years will be thrown under the bus. The bigger loser would be the Nigerian people who will suffer the consequences of the derailment of their future, and the uncertainty that accompanies that.
Nigeria is in a dilemma right now, and that is putting it mildly. Even the shamanists of diverse colours, pastors and the Bar Beach crowd of fortune gazers have not been able to tell Nigerians what the immediate future portends. In a highly superstitious and religious country, religious leaders are as bad as the street thugs. They inflict their own kind of violence that is not even covered by the law. The international community is in a wait-and-see mode. International investors too. Our conclusion is that this country is in urgent need of patriots, persons who would place the country first and above their personal ambitions. The scarcity of that special breed makes all of us look bad. But Nigeria is one country that never crosses the edge of the precipice. We are a resilient people; we always manage to survive. This is probably Nigeria’s moment in the Garden of Gethsemane. But even this shall pass. And please, what happened to all those peace accords Nigerian politicians signed with so much fanfare? Another hollow ritual?
Yesterday morning, while on the flagship show of Arise News – The Morning Show- I took special notice during the newspaper review with Emmanuel Efeni and the segment titled “What’s Trending” with Ojy Okpe, of the editorial by the ThisDay newspaper of the day titled: “Interim Government: Perish The Thought”. I pointed out that having been Chairman of the Editorial Board of a major Nigerian newspaper for 11 years, before moving on to other engagements in the public sphere, I am aware that when a newspaper publishes its editorial on the front page, as ThisDay did yesterday, it amounts to screaming, an outcry, a shout out, a call for urgent attention and a signal that the subject being talked about is most important. Ordinarily, a newspaper’s opinion is planned for the editorial pages, but when it jumps to the front page, it means the newspaper’s board considers it a high priority issue. I argued that the newspaper acted rightly by putting this particular editorial in its window space. I also concurred with all the submissions by the newspaper. The purpose of this piece is to expand the subject further, and develop some of the points that may not have been fully fleshed out in a restricted editorial writing space.
ThisDay pegged its editorial on the declaration by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), last week, in Ekiti, that there is a hidden plan to subvert the 2023 general elections so that an interim government can be imposed on Nigeria. The paper writes wisely: “Although Tinubu did not mention names or elaborate on how this scheme would work, coming from the candidate of the ruling party at the centre, such a weighty allegation is enough for us to warn against any attempt to scuttle the presidential election slated for February 25. Whatever may be behind an idea of interim government, we must remind them that in the Nigeria of today, nobody can get power through the back door or by trying to foist their will on the collective.” The newspaper argued further that (1) any attempt to short-circuit the electoral process is unacceptable; (2) that three weeks to the elections, the idea of forming an interim government is diversionary and dangerous; (3) that the idea is unknown to the 1999 Constitution and the military cannot be co-opted to support such illegality; (4) that there is no mortal threat to the 2023 general elections, where there are challenges, those challenges must be addressed by the state because it is its duty to do so by addressing the current twin challenges of cash and fuel scarcity and finally (5) the Federal Government must support the electoral umpire, INEC with logistics including security arrangements while the President is expected to stand firm and protect our democracy. The newspaper concludes: “Let all those interested in power use the platform of electoral politics and let’s all have faith in the in-built self-correcting capacity of the democratic order.” I cannot agree more. The editorial is timely and pungent enough. It is worthy of attention and further elaboration.
The idea of an Interim National Government was a contraption introduced into Nigeria’s grammar of politics and governance by the military administration led by General Ibrahim Babangida when in August 1993, having messed up the general elections of June 1993, Babangida decided to “step aside” (in retrospect, whatever that meant) and chose to hand over power to an interim government headed by Chief Ernest Adegunle Shonekan. The interim government lasted from 27 August 1993 when it was formed till 17 November 1993, less than 90 days when it was dissolved by General Sani Abacha who had been left behind by Babangida as Secretary of Defence, and who thought that becoming a Head of State of Nigeria was his turn, not Shonekan’s. This “Emilokan” thing did not start yesterday in Nigerian politics. Shonekan was a lawyer and a prominent technocrat who rose to the headship of the United African Company (UAC) in Nigeria. He was the product of a deal hatched with the British and other stakeholders. It all ended in tears. For the 88 days that the ING was in power, the country drifted. Strikes by union workers. High inflation. The media refused to co-operate. The South West media called the government – “fidihe” – in Yoruba language, this means sitting on a chair with one lap of the buttocks, in other words, not sitting properly.
Pro-democracy groups protested about the rot that Babangida left behind and called for a recognition of the mandate of the Nigerian people that had been won by Basorun MKO Abiola in the annulled June 12 Presidential election. A Lagos High Court in fact nullified Shonekan’s position and declared the ING illegal. On November 17, 1993, General Sani Abacha, Secretary of Defense, as he then was, forced Shonekan to resign. It was the shortest-lived government in Nigerian history. The Head of the ING could not put up any resistance. He had no control over the troops. He was a seasoned technocrat, a board room guru, who found himself in the uncharted waters of Nigeria’s power game, far more complex than what suit-wearing, overpaid executives do in air-conditioned board rooms. He didn’t need too much persuasion for him to drop a resignation letter and embark on a rapid dialogue with his legs. The ING collapsed. Abacha took over. What followed was absolute chaos and anarchy. Nigeria is yet to recover from the agony of Babangida’s folly and Abacha’s tyranny!
The idea of an Interim Government then was unconstitutional then as ruled by the court of Justice Dolapo Akinsanya of the High Court of Lagos who declared that the Decree No 61, that brought the ING into power was unconstitutional and therefore null and void. It was not only the Constitution that faulted the legitimacy of the ING, Shonekan’s appointment stood on nothing. He was an appointee. He did not gain power through a coup or an election. He is the only Nigerian leader at the centre, in history, who was not allowed to exercise the powers of a Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. His exit from power was a major turning point in Nigeria’s century-old relation with the United African Company (UAC), formerly, the Royal Niger Company, a grand symbol of colonialism and imperialism.
The sub-text of the editorial by this newspaper is that history should not be allowed to repeat itself. With the return to democracy since 1999, the kind of impunity with which the military junta treated the laws of the land should not be allowed. The soldiers may have left the scene, but their civilian successors and the soldiers now wearing flowing, bulbous civilian gowns, have the same mind-set: to do as they wish and subvert the people’s will. In 1993, it was said that General Olusegun Obasanjo, as he then was, was the person who recommended Shonekan, his kinsman for the position of the Head of the ING. It is also being said currently that the idea of an ING is being led by the same Obasanjo. He has a duty to clarify his position on the matter. I share the view that Nigeria does not need an ING. I also think nobody, male or female, should allow himself or herself to be used to subvert the current electoral process. The military thought they could get away with it in 1993, but they could not. They did not. This country does not belong to a cabal, or whatever name they go by – it belongs to all of us, and indeed ordinary Nigerians have a say in the matter. The sub-text of the editorial by ThisDay newspaper under reference is that any attempt to scuttle this year’s general elections in Nigeria would be an act of sabotage or treason. And nobody born of a woman, or not of a woman, who claims to be Nigerian should agree to be used as a dummy to mess up this 2023 election process.
To state the matter as it is, Nigerians have invested a lot in this process. They have queued up to get registered. They have spent weeks trying to get their Permanent Voter’s Cards, (PVCs) which is the only object recognized by the Bi-modal Voters Registration System (BVAS). The deadline for the issuance of PVCs by INEC ended over the weekend, but the desperation exercised in the face of the incompetence of INEC officials, and the protests by the people indicate that this would be an election like no other since 1999. This much was confirmed by a poll result by Nextier, a polling agency which apart from predicting a likely run-off, says there will be a high voter turn-out this year, contrary to suppositions to the contrary. Billions of Naira have been spent on logistics at national and sub-national levels. Political parties have crisscrossed the country wooing the electorate for votes, chalking up huge costs in the process. Some of the Presidential candidates even took their campaign to Chatham House in London to seek the endorsement of our former colonial masters. Some of the Presidential candidates and their acolytes even danced and almost broke a hip at campaign rallies across the country. Since the flag off of campaigns by INEC in October 2022, the country has witnessed a campaign different from whatever we witnessed before this seventh cycle of elections since 1999. It would be a tragic anti-climax for the government to wake up tomorrow and declare that there would be no election or that an Interim National Government had been formed. We must all be reminded that 1993 is not 2023. The military may have escaped with their folly, but this time around, the civilians in power must learn not to provoke the people.
Those who are pointing to fuel scarcity and the re-design of new naira notes as an excuse for the imposition of an interim government or potential mayhem, are engaged in deliberate mischief. They do not mean well for this country. President Muhammadu Buhari must see these calls as an attempt to ensure that his administration ends on a very bad note. General Babangida tried the same gambit in 1993. He has not recovered from the damage. President Buhari has promised Nigerians consistently, and that has been echoed by the INEC that the elections will hold as scheduled, and that chosen dates are sacrosanct. Anything to the contrary would amount to gross insincerity and dishonesty and a dark blotch on the Buhari tenure as Nigeria’s President. It is his choice to make but we also have a duty to point out that Nigeria must not be turned into a game of ping-pong. Those who do not want the 2023 general elections to take place are enemies of the people. The Buhari government has no option. This election must hold. Not even the lee-way offered in the Constitution is available in the circumstance.
Nigeria’s Constitution is very clear about the tenure of elected Presidents and Governors of Nigeria: its four years in the first instance and a second and final term of an additional four year-term. Any form of extension beyond this limit is a violation of the Constitutional order which elected persons swear to defend. In other words, the tenure of an administration cannot be extended by fiat, not even for a day. In that regard, the tenure of Buhari’s administration effectively ends on May 29, 2023. He cannot stay a day longer. He cannot leave an Interim Government behind. It is in his interest not to leave office as a civilian President who broke the law and left chaos behind. There is a possible outlet in Section 135 (3) of the 1999 Constitution which states that “If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time, but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.”
Section 135(3) or its relation, Section 180 (3) of the 1999 Constitution cannot be invoked under the present circumstances. Nigeria is not physically at war with any country either internally or externally. In fact, one of the selling points of this administration is that President Buhari has been able to checkmate the Boko Haram elements who tried to turn the North Eastern part of Nigeria into a battle-field. Any attempt to use that as an excuse would be an admission of failure. Can Buhari afford to dismantle his own legacy as he defines it in that regard? The only war that others point to is a war between the haves and the have nots: the classical war of the classes between those who cannot have access to new notes and fuel supply, and the vast minority who in the midst of all of this, are living like ants in the midst of honey. The aggrieved are beginning to take to the streets in parts of Nigeria, driving up fears in the country that there may well be a clandestine plan to blow up the country and stop the elections. But that does not amount to any justification to invoke Section 135 (3). If the people are angry over fuel supply, give them fuel – very simple. If there are no new notes – push more money into circulation, that is what the people want.
The cash scarcity matter has now even become so ridiculous that three Northern state governments are going to court – Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara to seek an order to compel the Federal Government and the CBN to extend the deadline for the validity of the old N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes. The three states are all ruled by members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in a further demonstration of how 18 days to Nigeria’s general elections, the ruling party is locked in intra-party wrangling. In the meantime, an Abuja High Court has barred the President and the CBN from suspending, stopping, or extending the new currency and cash limit policy. The motion ex parte which was filed by the Action Alliance (AA), Action Peoples Party (APP), Allied People’s Movement (APM), and the National Rescue Movement (NRM), against the President of Nigeria, the CBN, the Governor of the CBN and 23 others as respondents was determined in favour of the plaintiffs, and the matter adjourned to 14th February 2023. Thirteen political parties are also threatening to pull out of the election! Nigeria is being turned into a “Fuji House of Commotion.”
In case anyone is tone-deaf, President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure ends on May 29, 2023. He must not spend a day longer in the Presidential Villa. He must not leave any surrogates behind, in the name of an interim government or any such contraption. The National Assembly of Nigeria must not lend itself to any form of mischief, cooked up by the enemies of Nigeria. The minimum that President Buhari is obliged to do is to leave this country as he met it - a civilian democracy, even if badly wounded.
More...
Over the weekend, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) decided to extend the deadline for the collection of Permanent Voters Cards (popularly known as PVCs) by an additional week. The PVC collection that was scheduled to end on January 29, was extended till February 5, according to a statement by the INEC National Commissioner in charge of Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye. INEC further extended collection hours by an additional two hours, from 9 am till 5 pm including Saturdays and Sundays. It was the second time within a month that INEC would extend PVC collection deadline. The Commission had earlier fixed January 22, 2023 as the deadline but it then decided at the time to extend the collection till January 29, with the period of collection said to be between 9 am and 3 pm daily, including Saturday and Sundays, at wards and local government centres. Similarly last weekend, Nigerians were informed that the Central Bank of Nigeria had also shifted the deadline for the return of old denominations of N200, N500, N1, 000 Naira notes which had been redesigned by the Central Bank of Nigeria - from January 31, to February 10, with a further extension for return of old notes directly to the Central Bank until February 17.
The INEC spoke on Saturday. The CBN followed suit on Sunday. The immediate effect was that many Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief with fresh expectations that they would be able within the period of the extension get their PVCs, and new notes from the banks. Apropos, many Nigerians have hailed both the INEC and the CBN for listening to the people’s yearnings and for adopting a pro-people stance in both cases. Some of the reactions have been over-laden with an overdose of saccharine. The original purpose of government and its relationship with the people is properly stated in Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution to wit: “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government and (c)the participation by the people in their government shall be ensured in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.” It stands to reason therefore that the government of Nigeria cannot introduce any policy or measure that inflicts pain and suffering on the people of Nigeria or compromises their safety and welfare. The Federal Government of Nigeria under the laws of the land, is allowed strictly to take steps or introduce measures that advance the people’s interest. To the extent that sovereignty belongs to the people – (“we, the people” in the Preamble of the 1999 Constitution), nothing may be done to inconvenience or inflict injury on the people; to do so would be a violation of the spirit and letter of the Constitution with regard to its fundamental objectives and the rule of law. It is therefore understandable that the country’s electoral commission and the apex bank have both reversed themselves, in the course of a weekend volte-face, and hence re-discovered the original purpose of government policy.
The pervasive consensus out there was that INEC’s insistence on a January 29, take-it-or-leave it deadline for PVC collection was beginning to look like a violation of Section 14 (2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution already cited. Before, during and even after the January 22 extension by INEC, most Nigerians complained about the pain and suffering that they were subjected to in their attempt to get their PVCs. The cards were simply unavailable. In parts of the country, INEC officials drove the people from wards to local government headquarters, only to be told that the PVCs were not available. In some wards and local governments, especially in Lagos State, there were allegations of ethnic and religious discrimination. For more than two weeks, persons went to points of collection and they were turned back by unfriendly INEC officials. The evidence in that regard soon flooded the social and mainstream media, in form of reports, live accounts, videos, memes and reports of actual protest and threat of violence in INEC centres from Oluyole in Ibadan, to Oshodi in Lagos to Owerri in Imo State. It was obvious that the Nigerian voter of eligible age was in pain.
This was more so, as the point had been made repeatedly by the INEC Chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood, at every opportunity at home and abroad, most recently at their neo-colonial outpost – Chatham House that the Commission was ready. Even with the attack on INEC facilities by unknown gunmen, the INEC Chair boasted that the Commission’s operations would not be affected. In Abeokuta where hoodlums attacked an INEC facility, he assured the people that INEC had the capacity to produce missing PVCs within 72 hours. The people have seen that these assurances have come to naught. Even the Osun Gubernatorial election that the INEC used to tout as concrete evidence of the assuredness of its processes has just unraveled with the Election Petition Tribunal raising questions about INEC technology and over-voting in 744 polling units in 10 Local Government Areas in that election. And yet since the return to democratic rule in 1999, this is meant to be an election like no other. The people have been no more determined to exercise their franchise. They see their inability to get a PVC, as an attempt by the state to disenfranchise them. This is why some people have threatened to commit suicide if they are not allowed to vote. This is why there is violence or threats of violence in PVC collection centres. The matter is made worse by the fact that INEC officials have been accused of hoarding PVCs, and also deliberately asking for bribes before they could release voters’ cards. Videos have been circulated - of INEC officials, ad hoc, or formal, soliciting for bribes. This is scandalous. INEC cannot afford to have rogue elements among its ranks if it hopes to conduct credible elections. The least that can be said for now, 24 days to the February election is that the optics look really bad. The extension of the deadline for the collection of PVC would be completely meaningless and ineffectual, if despite the extension INEC officials on the streets are still giving the same excuses.
There is also the unresolved problem of students who registered in their various home constituencies during the prolonged eight-month long academic union strike but have since returned to school in distant places. Such students have been automatically disenfranchised. Even if they are willing to rush back home to get their PVCs, there is no guarantee that they can get the card, even after two weeks of trying. There are also other constraints: fuel scarcity, the high cost of transportation and the deadly risk of travelling in Nigeria by rail, road or air. This is why it makes better sense for Nigeria to have a harmonized data system that makes it possible for Nigerians to vote with just one means of identification, not the 19th Century system that we still maintain for the identification of the electorate. Still, something has to be done about rogue INEC officials. Before now, INEC said it had arrested some of its official involved in the manipulation of the voters’ register. The same treatment must be meted out forthwith to those officials who are sabotaging the PVC collection process. Part VII of the Electoral Act 2022 deals with “Electoral Offences”. Section 120 of the Act specifically addresses the subject of “dereliction of duty” by “any officer”. Section 121 talks about “bribery and conspiracy”. Both sections of the Act prescribe stiff penalties. But nobody is enforcing the law! INEC is very long on promises and extremely short in execution!
As it is with INEC with regard to the distribution and release of PVCs, so it is with the CBN and collection of old notes through the banks and the release of new denomination notes of N200, N500, and N1, 000. Two days before the volte face, the CBN had been most adamant in stating that there would be no extension of the deadline because it had acted perfectly within the law which is of course true within the purview of the relevant provisions of the CBN Act of 2007 – Sections 2(b), 17, 18, 19, and 20 (1) thereof which read together grant the CBN the powers to design monetary policy, print and redesign, and even change currency, with recourse in stated instances to the President of Nigeria in Section 19 of the same Act. In all that it did, the CBN had the support of the President in addition to the fact that the enabling law grants it the Independence to determine monetary policy. Further, the 90 days window for the return of old denominations in circulation was within the purview of the law. So why did the CBN change its mind? Why did it bow to pressure that came from all directions including the Presidential candidates of the two main political parties – PDP and APC, the National Assembly and the generality of Nigerians who felt that the policy was punitive in execution and that as established earlier no policy should violate the security and welfare of the people?
Whereas the CBN pointed out that the naira redesign policy was in the best interest of the people, to check terrorism financing, counterfeiting, imbalances in the fiscal space with about N2.7 trillion out of the N3.23 trillion in circulation in people’s homes, and abuse of the Naira, Nigerians felt that the suffering induced by the policy was undeserved. The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele reported that more than N1.9 trillion had been returned to the system with a success rate of over 75% but in return the people could not get the new notes! By weekend, with the deadline of January 31 approaching, the banks still dispensed old notes! The CBN kept saying that it had released more than enough new notes but they were nowhere to be found either in banking halls or at ATM machines, except in the hands of merchants of new naira notes at social events and party centres and in the hands of their patrons who continued in open defiance of the law (section 21 of the CBN Act which appears to be a dead law) to the discomfiture of many Nigerians who watched in disbelief at the effect of a wonky, disconnected process. By January 26, churches and many retail outlets had put out the message that they would no longer collect old notes in the affected denominations. In many churches, last Sunday, ushers were told not to ever allow anybody drop old notes into the offering collection bag. Not even the toddlers in Sunday School were spared. They were instructed in one church that I know to take old notes back to their parents. Bureau de change operators all said they had no new Naira notes, not even the ones that were not redesigned. In many ATMs across the country, able-bodied men took the matter into their hands, and engaged in fisticuffs over access to the very few ATMs that dispensed new notes. It didn’t matter that no ATM could dispense anything more than N20, 000 at a time.
By Monday morning, there was violence in some banks caused by the long queues of customers looking for money. In some parts of Nigeria, even wedding ceremonies could not hold because nobody was going to accept old notes as bride price! In rural areas, the under-banked population for whom the CBN introduced a cash swap policy decided to wait and see. No matter how well-meaning the CBN could have been, its policy was going to result in a break-down of law and order. The advertised extension till February 10 is most expedient. It came as a big relief to aggrieved Nigerians. But will they get the new notes?
The CBN Governor has been shown on tape reporting that the heads of the CBN, EFCC, ICPC, the Nigeria Financial intelligence Unit, the DSS and other security agencies have held a meeting and resolved to work together to apprehend persons who are sabotaging CBN guidelines on the naira redesign policy. Indeed yesterday, the DSS arrested some organized syndicates selling new Naira notes. I hope some bank managers were among those arrested. The security agencies should also take a close look at CBN officials because this kind of open sabotage and effrontery cannot take place without collusion at the highest levels. INEC officials are selling PVCs! Bankers are selling new Naira notes! We live in a country where whatever policy the government comes up with, there will always be persons who are determined to circumvent the policy for profit motives. This is the problem with Nigeria. The CBN extension would only be meaningful if the people can get new notes.
There is the additional matter that has been raised by the House of Representatives ad hoc committee led by Hon Al Hassan Doguwa on the matter. The lawmaker says the House is determined to issue a warrant of arrest for the CBN Governor, because the CBN has broken the law and the Governor is refusing to appear before the House. Both Doguwa and the Speaker, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamiala, insist that the CBN has violated Section 20(3) of the CBN Act, and that under Section 89(1) of the 1999 Constitution and Order 19(2) of the Standing Orders of the House, they have the right to ask that the CBN Governor be arrested by the Inspector General of Police. I sincerely believe that the House of Representatives is grandstanding. They can issue a warrant of arrest as they did a resolution, but the effect may be no more than symbolic. The police that should arrest the CBN Governor reports directly to the President of Nigeria – Sections 215 and 216 of the Constitution. The same President that has taken personal ownership of all that the CBN has done. In days to come, some persons may go to court to seek an interpretation of Section 20(3) and Section 22 of the CBN Act, and throw up more conundrums, but the problem is that our laws are often so woolly that anybody can cherry pick as convenient and avoid a community reading that is recommended as standard practice. Our laws need to be more specific and categorical. But has the CBN not anticipated and side-stepped that possible controversy by granting an additional seven days for the return of old notes to the Central Bank? I think it has.
Finally, it is worth noting that in November 2016, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a similar policy to take “black money” out of circulation in India. The government gave only a four-hour notice for the withdrawal of all 1,000 rupees and 500 rupees. It caused confusion because it came as a shock. It was shrouded in secrecy. New notes were scarce. There were queues all over India. Modi held his ground. He said he needed to fight tax evasion and corruption. The people endured the hardship. He got away with it. The only difference is that the Indians trusted their government. Nigerians have learnt to doubt their own government. This is the crux of the matter.
There seems to be a scramble, a rush, by Nigerian politicians, and political candidates for appearance at or association with Chatham House in London, the policy think tank established by the British Institute of International Affairs, which for more than a century has served as a forum for the exchange of ideas and open expression, research and knowledge. Chatham House, also known as the Royal Institute for International Affairs has hosted a broad spectrum of speakers and world leaders, from different continents of the world. As far back as April 1931, Mahatma Ghandi, the Indian nationalist was at Chatham House, which by the way is also famous for the Chatham House Rule, established in the English vocabulary as a principle of non-attribution in reporting a particular proceeding or engagement. Many Nigerians have of course appeared at Chatham House, but it is noteworthy that when Nigerian politicians do so, there is forever a tinge of self-advertisement and narcissism in their presentations, and this being the case, their opponents are quick to turn such forum into an occasion for combat and pugilism.
We have seen this at play over the years but what is shocking now is how our politicians have turned an opportunity to speak at Chatham House into a badge of honour. One state Governor had to make so much noise about making a speech at Chatham House, you would think he had been knighted at the time by the Queen! When a sitting Government gets wind of information that an opposition member was about to speak at Chatham, it is standard practice to send “our own people there” to “state our own side of the story” This time around, as Nigeria begins the countdown to the 2023 elections, Chatham House is part of the general conversation. On December 5, 2022, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was at Chatham House, an outing that was attended by rather exciting drama as a result of his resort to what he called “team-ship” in responding to questions and comments raised by his audience. The drama overshadowed the subject of his presentation: “Nigeria’s 2023 Elections: Security, Economic and Foreign Policy Imperatives”. He was heavily criticized by commentators at home and abroad. Yesterday, it was the turn of Mr. Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party addressing the subject: “Nigeria’s 2023 Election: A Vision for Policy Change and Institutional Reforms.”
Today, January 17, Chatham House will host the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu focusing on “Preparations, Challenges, and Priorities for Ensuring Electoral Integrity and Inclusivity.” Tomorrow, January 18 it would be the turn of Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, Presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party with particular focus on his policy ideas for Nigeria. The candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar has not yet shown up at Chatham House this time, although he had been there before on two different occasions – 2007 and 2018. Alex Vines, Director of the Africa Programme at the Institute has however confirmed that Atiku has been invited but he is yet to respond to the invitation. He probably would do so before the elections too, so he and his aides are not left out of the Chatham House jamboree. When Waziri Atiku Abubakar went to the UK recently, however, it was gleefully reported that he met with some UK officials. No one should be surprised if some other key players in the 2023 electoral process also find their ways to Chatham House, or ask to be invited if only to fulfil the ritual of shaking the hands of one English member of Parliament and parade same as an achievement! Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised one of these days, with the way things are going, if a Nigerian politician shows up at Chatham House with his entourage all garbed up in the kind of party attire that Nigerians call “aso ebi!”
As an Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House can easily justify its current focus on political developments in Nigeria: Africa’s most populous country, going through another election season that would involve a transition from one administration to the other, with implications for peace, stability and economic growth. As the Institute puts it: “Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, having suffered from two recessions in the past six years, unprecedented levels of physical and food insecurity, persistent fuel scarcity, and high levels of crude oil theft. Civic fatigue also remains an important challenge and Buhari’s three main policy pillars of security, economy and corruption continue to be defining issues for citizens.” But Chatham House’s interest in our affairs is not entirely altruistic; it is a listening post for the British establishment, and as a body that depends on donations as a major source of funding, its managers are fully aware of how vain and generous Nigerian politicians could possibly be at a time like this. This is one area in which the Chatham House Rule would definitely apply in the circumstance, so there may be no point inquiring into how much Nigerian politicians pay when they are granted the podium at 10 James’s Square. Perhaps “pay” is not the right word, so please scratch that, and substitute “donate”.
Chatham House. Chatham House. And so what? We have a similar body here in Nigeria; the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), which is Nigeria’s top think tank on public affairs, established in 1961, and since then has proven to be a major centre for research and analysis. Were the NIIA to invite Nigerian politicians to come and speak at the platform, they are not likely to show up. They would give excuses. And that is why no major politician has gone there to engage the Nigerian intelligentsia. They would rather go to London. This says something about our relationship with the West. The average Nigerian suffers from a terrible colonial mentality. Even for elections that will be decided by the Nigerian electorate, there is so much concentration on London. Our leaders go to London for medical treatment. They go to Dubai for tourism. And they don’t go alone. Every trip is an opportunity for over-excited aides to pose for photographs, sometimes with wives and girlfriends and their children. Nigerian leaders have a strong appetite for everything foreign. That is how they killed Nigeria’s education sector. That is how they killed the health sector. Now, they want to kill our politics! In the absence of diaspora voting all the showmanship by Nigerians at Chatham House amounts to nothing. The delivery of 1, 000 speeches at Chatham House cannot influence the Nigerian electorate in any way. Has anyone paused to ask why British politicians do not come to Nigeria to sell their campaign plans? And why other politicians around the world do not turn London into a major campaign centre?
It is possible to argue that many Nigerians live in the UK, and they could influence their kith and kin back home even if they themselves may not have a PVC. But such Nigerians are not likely to be found at Chatham House. Any Nigerian politician seeking the people’s votes through such strategy is better off holding Town Hall meetings in parts of the UK and Ireland where there is a large concentration of Nigerians, especially those neighbourhoods where if you stay by the window and you shout “Good Morning” in Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa, you are likely to hear many voices greeting you back loud and clear in the same language especially in South London: Elephant and Castle, Camberwell, Peckham, Croydon, Lewisham… There are also many Nigerians in Dublin. Since diaspora remittances mean a lot to Nigerians back home, it may be good sense to carry Nigerians in diaspora along, but certainly not inside Chatham House. But we may ask by way of further interrogation: does a speech at Chatham House give a Nigerian politician global recognition and acceptability? Or is it meant to show that the particular candidate has a programme that the international community can buy into? Does the platform confer legitimacy of any sort? It beggars the question whether that is what the Nigerian electorate needs.
There is one more point: the idea of Chatham House as a tourist centre by our political leaders and their aides is most unfortunate. For more than 100 years, it has been seen as a centre for rigorous thinking, and yet Nigerian leaders go there to say mundane things and their aides make a song and dance out of that. Let us stop disgracing ourselves and keep our mundane chatter among ourselves. Nobody gets a certificate or extra votes for going to Chatham House. It is ironic that the same politicians that do not want to attend debates at home are ever ready to be seen in foreign capitals. They can only have that global recognition that they seek when after winning the election, they then put up such performance that would recommend them for global acclaim.
In the weeks leading to the 2023 Nigerian elections, Nigerians deserve to see their Presidential candidates engage each other in debates. Some of the candidates have opted for stage-managed town hall meetings of their own where they and their aides set all the questions and provide the answers that they consider most convenient. It is true that presidential debates are not a Constitutional requirement but they have evolved over time as a means of assessing the candidate’s level of preparedness, capacity in comparison with other candidates, and the creation of a level playing field for the electorate to make an informed choice. The kind of charade that is going on in the name of rallies and self-promoting town hall meetings is akin to a situation where a job seeker insists on setting the criteria by himself, for himself and on his own terms. In a country of over 200 million people, this amounts to an act of contempt and disrespect. We must begin to modify the campaign system. Rallies are at best carnivals, the risks involved are too high. Years back, a wise politician told me that based on his experience, he had deduced that six months to a Presidential election in Nigeria, it was always possible to predict the outcome. This time around, all the wise men are uncertain about the future, which makes this 2023 election, one of the strangest that has been held in this country since the return to democracy in 1999.
What is certain is the resilience of the same centrifugal forces that have held the country down. Those who want to behead existing gods and hegemonies of Nigerian politics may well discover that the elections may be determined in a familiar fashion: Yoruba people will vote for a Yoruba candidate, Fulanis will vote for Fulani, Muslims will vote for Muslims, Christians will support their fellow Christians, and most ironically, women who constitute a dominant percentage (about 47.5%) of the voting population will vote for men. The swing factor may well be the youths of Nigeria, who represent 39.65% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34, out of a total of 93.4 million registered voters. But will the youths of Nigeria get their voter’s cards despite the extension of the collection of PVCs by one week till January 29? Would the youths of Nigeria be able to vote in parts of the country where violence is so rife that even the security agencies appear helpless? INEC continues to affirm that the elections will be held without hitches, “come rain, come shine.” What is the basis of that optimism, even as INEC offices remain under assault, the most recent being the attack on INEC’s Area Office in Enugu South Local Government Area? It would be a great shame indeed and most disappointing if the agents of retrogression are allowed to hijack the 2023 elections.
The main challenge is here at home, not on the streets of London. And to all the political gladiators: there is an urgent need to focus more on the issues, rather than engaging in mud-slinging, polluting and fouling the environment. The ongoing politics of hate would make healing and reconciliation difficult when the election is won and lost. Nigeria cannot afford that.
From today, we have just about 47 days to Nigeria’s general elections, a major transition that would involve a change of government, the seventh since the return to civilian rule in 1999, but the biggest fear is that the current electoral process faces threats from different directions more than any other before it. I intend to identify some of these and reflect on them, as we all begin to count down to this year’s major elections. Yesterday in Ojota, Lagos, it was reported that there was a shoot out between members of the Oodua Progressives Congress (OPC), and the Oodua self-determination activists and Nigeria’s security agencies. Persons were killed, other were injured. By 9 am, concerned citizens had declared the Ojota area of Lagos a no-go area except you would willingly take a stray bullet in your head and die just like that. In Anambra State, unidentified gun men burnt down a police station in Umuchu community in Aguata Local Government Area.
The same station was destroyed by #EndSARS protesters in 2020 during a mass protest. The Umuchu Improvement Union decided to rebuild it, only for it to be set ablaze again. In parts of the East and elsewhere, both police stations and the offices of the electoral umpire have been special targets of evil-minded arsonists and unknown gunmen, ahead of the elections. As of December 2022, we were told that over 50 INEC offices had been attacked in four years, across 15 states. Of these, 11 incidents in Imo state alone, seven in Osun, five in Akwa Ibom, five in Enugu and Ebonyi, four in Abia and Cross River, two in Anambra, Taraba, Borno, and one in Ogun, Lagos, Bayelsa, Ondo and Kaduna. The frequency of these attacks has since increased as the elections draw nearer, causing understandable panic and concern among right-thinking members of the Nigerian community. The truth is that INEC facilities and security stations have become targets of arson and vandalism.
The attacks point to a trend: the determination to destroy INEC infrastructure, incapacitate the institution, and derail the 2023 electoral process. The details are as follows: yet uncollected Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) have been stolen, generating sets and computers are destroyed and the assailants across the country disappear into thin air. There is no record of arrests having been made. When INEC offices are not attacked, there are other attacks that point to what is beginning to look like a deliberate attempt by some hoodlums to make sure the 2023 elections do not take place. On March 28, 2022 for example, a Kaduna bound train from Abuja was attacked and bombed and passengers were injured and abducted. More than 100 of the abducted passengers did not all regain their freedom until September 2022. The families who lost their loved ones, or paid ransoms, and those whose relatives were injured, humiliated and flogged, would never forget their pain and loss. Their only crime, at the risk of sounding repetitive is that they are Nigerians living in a country of strange occurrences where life has become “nasty, short and brutish”.
On Saturday, just a few days ago, the railway station at Igueben in Edo State was attacked. This time, it was the station, not the train. Over 30 persons were abducted including the manager of the train station. This is all made more worrisome because before the re-opening of the Abuja-Kaduna rail line on December 15, 2022, the Minister of Transportation had boasted that special measures had been taken to ensure the safety of passengers and the entire Nigerian railway value chain. The Minister has since visited Igueben and he simply repeated the same tosh without even thinking about how additional security measures would eb taken. What we see is that government officials do not learn from what happens to the people. They repeat the same embarrassing script in an odious advertisement of their lack of capacity. So much money and commitments have been invested by Nigeria in the country’s rail network, but the management is atrocious because it is in the hands of incompetents who on top of it all, have not learnt the lesson of keeping quiet when you have nothing intelligent or reasonable to say. In some other countries, where merit is more important than connections, the Minister of Transportation and the Managing Director of the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) would be out of job by now.
But the bigger picture, the big elephant in the room, is that this is election season and it seems that some fifth columnists are determined to truncate the process, derail it, make it impossible, as it were for Nigerians to have credible elections. This may sound hypothetical, but from the evidence of current trends, it is possible to do a threat assessment and conclude accordingly. We face a very high level of security threat as we get closer to the 2023 elections, and it is one reason why the security agencies must arouse from their slumber and stop playing possum when the house is threatened by arsonists. President Muhammadu Buhari had given, before now, the security agencies a deadline of December 2022 to make sure that they “got on top of the security situation” in the country. The various service chiefs pledged that they would do their job. The joke is now on them. Where are they? Are they hiding in some secret cupboards somewhere? There is widespread insecurity in the land. The people have played their part by seeking to register and collect their Permanent Voter’s Cards: 93. 5 million registered voters and over 48 million young people who want to use the 2023 opportunity to have a say in how they are governed. Who is afraid of the people’s voice and power? Buhari wants to leave a strong legacy. The starting point, and the obvious redemptive choice is to leave behind a free and fair election that produces the best options for Nigeria. This week, the President would begin to show up as we have been told at rallies of his party in 10 states (why 10?),,for the APC’s Presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The last time President Buhari was sighted at any APC rally was during the flag off of the campaign in Jos, Plateau State. But now, he wants to come out to throw his weight and influence behind his party’s Presidential candidate. In doing so, at this crunch time, he must be reminded that he had told us again and again that he is for everybody and for nobody and all he wants is for Nigerians to vote according to their conscience. He has an obligation to toe that chosen path even as he relishes photo opportunities at campaign rallies by his own party, otherwise he would be accused of hypocrisy. His party members expect him to deliver single-handedly, over 12 million votes from the North. But the times have changed. Out of the total of 93. 5 registered voters, over 48 million of them are young men and women, and they are majorly in the South, espousing a combination of #EndSARS, #IPOB and #TakeOurCountry Back ideals. There is a new generation in the electoral space that does not know the older generation. This is bound to be an election like no other. It would be a contest between the old and new order, the rich and the poor, the establishment and the people. Whoever wins, Nigeria stands the strong chance of new realignments and awakening. The best bet for President Buhari as he goes into final retirement from public service and partisan politics is to protect his legacy for Nigerians, and take ownership of his own narrative. He is not getting the help that he badly needs!
Th 2023 election process is further threatened by the inability of the people, especially young men and women who dominate the electoral register to get their PVCs. In Lagos state or elsewhere, the story has been that either the INEC officials do not show up, or they arrive late and close early, provoking the anger of majorly young voters who believe that there is an attempt to disenfranchise them. INEC spokespersons continue to argue that they are prepared and ready, but what explains the inefficiency in INEC collection centres from Local Government Areas to the wards, and the fact that INEC ad-hoc staff are mostly unavailable at their duty desks. There has been a clamour for the extension of the INEC time-table for the collection of PVCs beyond January 22, 2023. INEC must also audit its own processes beyond merely making promises it cannot keep. The people have been told that the only way they can vote and for their votes to count is for them to have a voter’s card. One man, one vote. INEC must in addition to everything else explain why its Voter’s Cards are showing up in refuse dumps and drainage channels. How did they get there? The PVCs must be in the hands of Nigerian voters who expect to use them to exercise their due rights under the law. This is not something that INEC must sweep under the carpet. The organization has announced that beginning from today, it would embark on the enlightenment of the electorate across the country. It is not just the voters that need enlightenment, the process must begin with INEC officials and ad hoc staff.
The politicians also must be called to order. The beauty of the Electoral Act 2022 is that it spells out in no uncertain terms, the penalty for misconduct. Sections 91, 92 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, guide conduct during elections accordingly, with penalties properly spelt out in Sections 92 (7), (8), 93(2), 94(2), 95 (6), 96(3) and 97 (1) but nonetheless, the level of impunity has been horrendous. Candidates go to campaign rallies and the major thing they do is to abuse their own opponents with a barrage of hate speech, toxic language and argumentum ad hominem. In some states where certain parties are in charge politically, they do not allow the opposition to campaign or erect campaign materials. There has been in fact a rank disregard for Section 97 of the Electoral Act which forbids any form of campaign on “religious, tribal or sectional reason for the purpose of promoting or opposing a particular political party or the election of a particular candidate…” Meanwhile, it has been reported that a special prayer session was organized by Muslim clerics in Kano recently in support of the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. At the event, one Abdulmutalab Mohammed Auwal, a Sheik, advised Muslims to vote only for a Muslim-Muslim ticket as a call to Jihad. He argued the Bola Tinubu/Shettima Muslim/Muslim ticket is an indication of the supremacy of Islam. The meeting was attended by about 75 Muslim groups from the North and other parts of Nigeria. Other speakers at the event promoted the politics of religion. The last time we checked, the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria at Section 10 thereof says: “The Government of the Federation or of a state shall not adopt any religion as State Religion”. It is the same provision that is reflected in Section 97 of the Electoral Act 2022 on the prohibition of “campaign based on religion or tribe”. But here in Nigeria both the people and the government break the laws routinely because impunity reigns. How on earth can a total of 75 groups gather at a forum and preach hatred based on religion and they are allowed to get away with it?
So in essence, the security agencies are not doing their work! They have an obligation to protect the state against all levels of threat, and they must do so, proactively, and consistently, not when it is convenient for them to do so. A general election such as this country is about to hold in the next two months is not just about the ballot paper, and the people’s ability to choose, it is also a national security operation. It is the integrity of the Nigerian state that is at stake. The electoral framework is clear on that. The people’s right to vote and choose, freely and without inducement or any form of harassment or molestation, must be protected and defended. Election managers often talk about a certain concentric circle of security operations on election day, but clearly, the security dimension of any major national security event is not a day-event, it is a process: before, during and after. Not enough has been done before the elections as indicated by the multiple security breaches around the country. The challenges ahead are clear and obvious. The politicians are behaving as if the election this year is a kind of war. The last thing this country wants is any form of war. Nigerians want peace. The 2023 Budget as defined has a deficit of N77 trillion. Unemployment rate is over 33%. There is a debt overhang of over N22 trillion. Revenue projection is about N10 trillion. There is the possibility that fuel subsidy and other subsidies will be removed but there is no guarantee that the gains accruing therefrom will be properly managed. Tighten your seat belts. This is bound to be a tough year for us, as Nigerians. The politicians will win or lose, but they don’t seem to care enough about us. This is our sad reality.
This certainly promises to be an interesting year for Africa where a total of 24 general, legislative and local elections would take place in the course of the year in Republics of Benin, Comoros, Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo and Zimbabwe. For a continent that has had issues of military truncation of democratic processes or threats thereof in recent times – Libya, Egypt, Congo, Burundi, Central African Republic, Ethiopian, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Chad - any indication of the sustenance of democracy in any part of the continent would be simply good news. But the one that concerns us most is the fact that Nigeria in 2023 is scheduled to have general elections, the sixth since the return to civilian rule in 1999, with the possibility, if that be the case, of the outcome of a transition at political party level at the centre.
This would perhaps turn out to be the most important event in Nigeria’s political calendar in 2023. The question as framed in not so many words is: who will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari? If the race had been somewhat measured, it can be safely imagined that as we enter the New Year, it would possibly take no more than two weeks from this moment, before the entire Nigerian landscape lights up in frenetic election frenzy as the various parties and candidates begin the final dash towards the Presidential election on February 25, 2022, and the Gubernatorial and Legislative Elections scheduled for March 11. For now, there seems to be an informal consensus that out of the 18 political parties in the race, only four political parties and four candidates can be taken seriously: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Waziri Atiku Abubakar, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Labour Party and Mr. Peter Obi and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Dr. Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso. In a recent, robust, thumb-of-the-rule, analysis of projections, ThisDay Newspaper, reduced the race to a straight, all-out fight between the APC and the PDP and the possibility of a run-off. This may however change, given the volatility of political permutations.
But what lies ahead has already been signposted by a series of events. Just as the year was about to end, Prince Arthur Eze, the Igbo billionaire and entrepreneur and the Godfather of some people, announced at an Ofala festival, that he had told Peter Obi of the Labour Party not to run for the Presidency because he is not the chosen one. He said he told Peter Obi not to waste his money and when it is the turn of Igbos, it would not even be him, but Professor Charles Soludo, the incumbent Governor of Anambra State to whom whoever wins the Nigerian Presidency in 2023 would hand over. Prince Eze’s intervention generated not a little ruckus, more so as he had arrogated to himself the power and privilege to determine the political future of Igboland and the political fortunes of Peter Obi. This was made a tad more interesting by the fact that Professor Charles Soludo whom he announced as the Igbo choice for the Presidency of Nigeria had in fact written in November 2022, in a piece titled “History Beckons and I will Not Be Silent (1)” that Peter Obi’s presidential ambition is a wild goose chase that will amount to nothing, and that his claim of extra-ordinary performance as Anambra Governor is at best a scam. Soludo has not published the Part II of his 2023 political homily. But while he and Prince Eze have the right to their own choices, it cannot be confirmed that they speak for all Igbos or the Nigerian elite, even if there has been very loud silence among the Igbo elite about Peter Obi’s candidacy. His constituency is the ordinary Nigerian who wants to take his or her country back, who believes that the best way to move Nigeria forward is to disrupt it, do something different, think out of the box. Either by default or design, Peter Obi, more than Omoyele Sowore, candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC) who in fact generated that lexicon in 2019, has taken ownership of it and given it velocity and currency. But to what end? There is considerable disagreement over what the Peter Obi phenomenon means.
What has lent it further oxygen, however, is the New Year endorsement by President Olusegun Obasanjo who says Peter Obi in his own estimation has an “edge” over other candidates in Nigeria’s Presidential race. Having been an issue in Nigerian politics for more than five decades, Obasanjo has learnt the artful game of owning the moment and that is precisely what he has done this time around. Weeks to the election, on the first day of the new year, he announced his preference, and he drew attention to himself, and made himself an issue. There are persons who have expressed the view that President Obasanjo should be quiet. I disagree. He has every right under the law to offer an opinion, just like Governor Charles Soludo, Prince Arthur Eze, and the rest of us. Nobody should be crucified for speaking their mind, since we all know in any case that nobody, be it a former President or a serving janitor has more than one vote. The only difference is that some people imagine that with their celebrity endorsements or condemnations, they can influence the votes. This is why the most important person in the forthcoming general elections is the voter. The Nigerian voter must stand up, be resolute and make an informed choice. There is no individual in this country that has powers under the law to dictate how others should vote. The operative rule is one man, one vote. Whether or not the elite prefer a particular candidate, what matters is what that average voter wants, and chooses. It is hence important that the Nigerian people vote according to their conscience. This is the area where the civil society has a responsibility to act in the people’s interest by conscientizing them that the best way forward for Nigeria is to vote for those who will make Nigeria a better place. Nobody must be allowed to play God in 2023. There are no messiahs in this country anymore. We only have the people and the people have a duty to save themselves.
Why? Because the leading political parties are in disarray, and do not seem to care about the electoral framework. The Electoral Act 2022 has been touted as a major step forward in Nigeria’s process of democratic consolidation but there is no concrete evidence that the political parties, their candidates and supporters have taken time out to study and internalize its provisions. There is too much bad conduct on the political scene. The political parties signed a peace accord brokered under the leadership of General Abdulsalami Abubakar, the Sultan of Sokoto, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah and others but the campaign process has been far from peaceful. It has been abusive, toxic, abrasive and uncivil. The major political parties are all guilty, and the surrogates, the hired Vuvuzelas, half of whom are hungry and angry have been unhelpful to the country, the process and the candidates who give them just barely enough to keep their stomachs alive. Under such circumstances, the people of Nigeria have a responsibility to save their country from all those elements, the termites, the fortune-seekers who have crawled out of the woods to hold the country hostage.
We have been told by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that the only way to do this is for the people to get their voting cards. Unfortunately, the on-going PVC collection exercise is a nightmare. In the South West, there have been allegations that non-Yoruba persons are not allowed to collect PVCs. In the East, there are allegations that militant groups are chasing people away from PVC collection centres. In the North, it is alleged that under-aged children are being given PVCs. Across the country, it is said that some unscrupulous elements are buying up PVCs and Voter Identification Numbers (VIN), apparently to reduce the number of voters on election day, and induce poor voter turn-out to serve a purpose in specific constituencies. INEC through its spokespersons has been very eloquent in dismissing all of these allegations and in boasting that it is prepared, so prepared it has even printed extra ballot papers should the country be faced with the possibility of a Presidential run-off and the activation of reverse logistics. This is not the time for empty boasts. INEC must address the challenges it faces. It must investigate the allegations that have been raised and take appropriate action. Less than eight weeks to the election, it has been said that people cannot get their PVCs! The collection process has been chaotic from Lagos to Anambra. It is not juju. It is organizational dysfunction! Indeed, in Lagos, many non-Yorubas complain that in the few local government areas where PVCs are given out, anybody bearing a non-Yoruba name is discriminated against and denied a PVC. Now, that is unacceptable. INEC must look into that and ensure that there is smooth, non-discriminatory collection of PVCs across the country, especially now that the adoption of BVAS – the Biometric Verification Accreditation System- has eliminated the recourse to incident forms. Everything in the coming 2023 elections depends on INEC and the integrity of its systems, and further, the commitment of President Muhammadu Buhari to his promise to ensure a peaceful and credible transition. INEC needs more ad-hoc staff. It needs hands on the ground. How it manages this make-or-mar election should mean a lot to its staff. INEC must stop making promises and get to work.
The promises should be left to the politicians. As things stand, the two major political parties are in a battle to the finish. The APC is so arrogant, and confident in a most insufferable manner that it is again the turn of the party. APC is the ruling party, and so there is probably something to be said for the power of incumbency. The only caveat there is that the sitting President has cultivated a seeming air of neutrality in the matter. He is leader of the party and Chairman of the APC Presidential Campaign Council but except I am missing something, and I stand to be corrected, the President has told everyone whoever has ears to hear that he is committed to leaving behind a legacy of free and fair elections and he wants Nigerians to vote and choose freely according to their conscience. In other words, he, President Buhari belongs to everybody and nobody in particular, even if he has also been quoted as saying that he wants his party, the APC to win. He has in that regard shown up in one or two campaigns. His wife too. But is that how a sitting President campaigns for a successor that he wants? Politicians don’t tell people to vote according to their choice. They go out there to drive their own choice down the people’s throats. In 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo was more active on the stumps than his chosen successor, Umaru Yar’Adua. He was the one going around selling the sick Yar’Adua to Nigerians, and he had his way willy-nilly, even if years after the fact, he is now the same man saying a Presidential candidate needs the gift of mental and physical agility. Do you see how Nigeria has suffered in the hands of its leaders? In comparison to Obasanjo, President Buhari has been rather reticent. He wants Nigerians to decide for themselves. While that comes across as good statesmanship, it reduces the force of the Tinubu campaign. Why would a sitting APC President not energize his proverbial 12 million voters in support of his own party by going out there to rally the base?
The rival, the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has issues of its own too. The party is divided as it were into three factions. Yes, three. There is the Atiku faction: the traditional PDP group, the die-hards who are eager to return to power and displace the ruling APC. They are not saying it is their turn, but they are convinced that power belongs to them, they only just missed it in 2015 and 2019, and they want it back desperately. But there is this other faction: the Nyesom Wike faction. Wike, the inconsolable, cry-baby of the PDP Presidential primaries who missed the presidential ticket, and also lost out in the running mate race who has now ganged up with other Governors of the party to form a G-5 and other members to form a rebellious Integrity Group – he says in the name of justice, equity and fairness, Senator Iyorchia Ayu must go as Chairman of the party – an irreducible minimum. The party has since passed a vote of confidence on Ayu, and in the last few days, the PDP has made it clear that both the G-5 and the Integrity Group can do their worst, because they do not matter. The way I see it, I think Wike and co. have overplayed their hands. Apart from Wike who is not seeking any elective post, all the other principal partners are in a Catch-22 situation. Seyi Makinde in Oyo state wants a second term. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Samuel Ortom, and Okezie Ikpeazu want to go to the Senate. Governor Ugwuanyi is old and experienced enough to know that Enugu is a traditional PDP state. He can follow others to Port Harcourt and London to drink pepper soup but in his private moments, he knows that he should not jeopardize his own political interest. Okezie Ikpeazu, the Malabitic Ph.D Governor of Abia state is presumably too intelligent to go and follow Wike and others to drink poisonous soda. Ortom has been very diplomatic all along, dancing this way and that way, knowing that there are more than enough formidable PDP forces in Benue who can bury his political career. Right now, most of the aggrieved members of the PDP political family are orphans in search of shelter. They also need to be reminded of what happened to the Alliance for Democracy Governors in the 2003 elections in the South West due to mixed messaging. Tinubu was the last man standing in that debacle. They should learn from him.
This may well be a general election of surprises in Nigeria. The story has just begun.